Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 58%
3 arb excluded
$5.6K
$-7.9K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 24 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | $-8.3K | 56% 3662-2839 (6501) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 74% 102693-36455 (139148) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 57.2¢ | $789.44 | $960.56 | +$171.12 | 56% 14669-11554 (26223) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 63.7¢ | $371.1 | $468.91 | +$97.81 | 55% 15663-13037 (28700) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 58.8¢ | $171.84 | $241.83 | +$70 | 50% 5420-5490 (10910) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 59.8¢ | $169.17 | $237.37 | +$68.2 | 56% 13916-11031 (24947) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $115.28 | $131.45 | +$16.16 | 66% 99292-51478 (150770) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.4¢ | $87.28 | $131.45 | +$44.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.7¢ | $28 | — | -$28 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 79.6¢ | $150.96 | $151.11 | +$0.15 | 60% 12392-8220 (20612) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 16.2¢ | $72.96 | $45.6 | -$27.36 | 64% 58688-33274 (91962) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.2¢ | $43.5 | — | -$43.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.6¢ | $29.46 | $45.6 | +$16.14 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 60.8¢ | $88.53 | $130.38 | +$41.85 | 57% 12630-9701 (22331) |
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100 | Upavg 28.8¢ | $71.7 | $63.13 | -$8.57 | 54% 8165-6865 (15030) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.8¢ | $41.59 | — | -$41.59 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.7¢ | $30.12 | $63.13 | +$33.02 | |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 8.7¢ | $19.06 | — | -$19.06 | 46% 38341-45284 (83625) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $35.47 | $31.14 | -$4.33 | 55% 8787-7245 (16032) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $31.35 | $63.97 | +$32.62 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $26.33 | — | -$26.33 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 10.2¢ | $10.21 | — | -$10.21 | 55% 7605-6229 (13834) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $19.2 | $40.85 | +$21.65 | 58% 60765-44349 (105114) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $16.25 | $27.77 | +$11.52 | 66% 126396-65094 (191490) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $21.19 | $16.92 | +$0.34 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $10.89 | $11 | +$0.11 | 93% 23943-1796 (25739) |
VE Vega7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 73% 2943-1066 (4009) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 69% 1651-755 (2406) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $10 | +$2.6 | 64% 40317-23061 (63378) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.1¢ | $5.65 | — | -$5.65 | 55% 45398-37789 (83187) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $5.34 | — | -$5.34 | 59% 6915-4856 (11771) |
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
56%
3662-2839 (6501)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
74%
102693-36455 (139148)
Invested
$789.44
Value
$960.56
PnL
+$171.12
Record
56%
14669-11554 (26223)
Invested
$371.1
Value
$468.91
PnL
+$97.81
Record
55%
15663-13037 (28700)
Invested
$171.84
Value
$241.83
PnL
+$70
Record
50%
5420-5490 (10910)
Invested
$169.17
Value
$237.37
PnL
+$68.2
Record
56%
13916-11031 (24947)
Invested
$115.28
Value
$131.45
PnL
+$16.16
Record
66%
99292-51478 (150770)
Both legs:
Invested
$150.96
Value
$151.11
PnL
+$0.15
Record
60%
12392-8220 (20612)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$72.96
Value
$45.6
PnL
-$27.36
Record
64%
58688-33274 (91962)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$88.53
Value
$130.38
PnL
+$41.85
Record
57%
12630-9701 (22331)
Invested
$71.7
Value
$63.13
PnL
-$8.57
Record
54%
8165-6865 (15030)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$19.06
Value
—
PnL
-$19.06
Record
46%
38341-45284 (83625)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$35.47
Value
$31.14
PnL
-$4.33
Record
55%
8787-7245 (16032)
Invested
$31.35
Value
$63.97
PnL
+$32.62
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Invested
$26.33
Value
—
PnL
-$26.33
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$10.21
Value
—
PnL
-$10.21
Record
55%
7605-6229 (13834)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$40.85
PnL
+$21.65
Record
58%
60765-44349 (105114)
Invested
$16.25
Value
$27.77
PnL
+$11.52
Record
66%
126396-65094 (191490)
Invested
$21.19
Value
$16.92
PnL
+$0.34
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.11
Record
93%
23943-1796 (25739)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
73%
2943-1066 (4009)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
69%
1651-755 (2406)
ohioism<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.6
Record
64%
40317-23061 (63378)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$5.65
Value
—
PnL
-$5.65
Record
55%
45398-37789 (83187)
Invested
$5.34
Value
—
PnL
-$5.34
Record
59%
6915-4856 (11771)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $960.56
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $468.91
ply-pm0
Down — $241.83
GoodFallen
Down — $237.37
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $151.11
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
Down — $130.38