Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$224.77

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,739

Combined PnL+$554.12

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares883

Combined PnL-$329.35

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 79.9¢	$654.38	$788.62	+$134.24	56% 14669-11554 (26223)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 69.1¢	$873.86	$1.3K	+$390.4	58% 38135-27322 (65457)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$256.94	$240.63	-$16.31	55% 15663-13037 (28700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.7¢	$170.14	$240.63	+$70.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$86.81	—	-$86.81
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 83.4¢	$252.9	$232.24	+$8.44	64% 58688-33274 (91962)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 80.3¢	$216.7	$200.4	-$16.3	57% 12630-9701 (22331)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 73.2¢	$174.41	$150	-$24.42	50% 5420-5490 (10910)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 42.6¢	$129.33	—	-$129.33	58% 51123-37260 (88383)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 75.8¢	$120.86	$159.49	+$38.63	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 97¢	$130.95	$135	+$4.05	51% 746-706 (1452)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$136.22	$160.99	+$24.78	64% 40317-23061 (63378)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.9¢	$123.82	$160.99	+$37.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 29¢	$12.4	—	-$12.4
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 88¢	$176	$200	+$24	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
machinelearned	Downavg 91¢	$129.14	$92.18	-$36.96	55% 8787-7245 (16032)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$68.68	—	-$68.68	56% 8113-6259 (14372)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$90.33	$75.16	-$15.17	56% 13916-11031 (24947)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$46.76	$75.16	+$28.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$43.57	—	-$43.57
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 90.6¢	$100.12	$92.51	-$7.61	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$87.66	$109.41	+$21.75	59% 6915-4856 (11771)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$66.98	$109.41	+$42.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$20.68	—	-$20.68
SF sfkjbsr457<$100	Downavg 84¢	$69.42	$66.96	-$2.46	54% 8165-6865 (15030)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$47.59	—	-$47.59	35% 18938-35934 (54872)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 81.8¢	$63.05	$73.23	+$10.19	60% 12392-8220 (20612)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$47.05	$48.99	+$1.94	55% 7605-6229 (13834)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 91¢	$42.86	$43	+$0.14	66% 126396-65094 (191490)
SH Sharky6999<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$35.47	$35.51	+$0.04	98% 6873-164 (7037)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$40.7	$57.2	+$16.5	64% 23991-13230 (37221)
BossgirlCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$26.22	—	-$26.22	54% 4643-3944 (8587)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 92.3¢	$23.26	$21.38	-$1.88	52% 90788-85318 (176106)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$654.38

Value

$788.62

PnL

+$134.24

Record

56%

14669-11554 (26223)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$873.86

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$390.4

Record

58%

38135-27322 (65457)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$256.94

Value

$240.63

PnL

-$16.31

Record

55%

15663-13037 (28700)

Both legs:

Down$170.1470.7¢+$70.49

Up$86.8130.3¢-$86.81

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$252.9

Value

$232.24

PnL

+$8.44

Record

64%

58688-33274 (91962)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$216.7

Value

$200.4

PnL

-$16.3

Record

57%

12630-9701 (22331)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$174.41

Value

$150

PnL

-$24.42

Record

50%

5420-5490 (10910)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$129.33

Value

—

PnL

-$129.33

Record

58%

51123-37260 (88383)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$120.86

Value

$159.49

PnL

+$38.63

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$130.95

Value

$135

PnL

+$4.05

Record

51%

746-706 (1452)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$136.22

Value

$160.99

PnL

+$24.78

Record

64%

40317-23061 (63378)

Both legs:

Down$123.8276.9¢+$37.18

Up$12.429¢-$12.4

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$176

Value

$200

PnL

+$24

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$129.14

Value

$92.18

PnL

-$36.96

Record

55%

8787-7245 (16032)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$68.68

Value

—

PnL

-$68.68

Record

56%

8113-6259 (14372)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90.33

Value

$75.16

PnL

-$15.17

Record

56%

13916-11031 (24947)

Both legs:

Down$46.7662.2¢+$28.4

Up$43.5731.1¢-$43.57

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$100.12

Value

$92.51

PnL

-$7.61

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$87.66

Value

$109.41

PnL

+$21.75

Record

59%

6915-4856 (11771)

Both legs:

Down$66.9861.2¢+$42.43

Up$20.6848¢-$20.68

sfkjbsr457<$100

Down

Invested

$69.42

Value

$66.96

PnL

-$2.46

Record

54%

8165-6865 (15030)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$47.59

Value

—

PnL

-$47.59

Record

35%

18938-35934 (54872)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$63.05

Value

$73.23

PnL

+$10.19

Record

60%

12392-8220 (20612)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$47.05

Value

$48.99

PnL

+$1.94

Record

55%

7605-6229 (13834)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$42.86

Value

$43

PnL

+$0.14

Record

66%

126396-65094 (191490)

Sharky6999<$100

Down

Invested

$35.47

Value

$35.51

PnL

+$0.04

Record

98%

6873-164 (7037)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$40.7

Value

$57.2

PnL

+$16.5

Record

64%

23991-13230 (37221)

BossgirlCTR<$100

Invested

$26.22

Value

—

PnL

-$26.22

Record

54%

4643-3944 (8587)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$23.26

Value

$21.38

PnL

-$1.88

Record

52%

90788-85318 (176106)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xb244e5b5...905889

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793450400

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $788.62

+$134.24

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.3K

+$390.4

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$16.31

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $232.24

+$8.44

FairValueMachine

Down — $200.4

-$16.3

ply-pm0

Down — $150

-$24.42

PBot-6

CTR

Up — $0

-$129.33

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $159.49

+$38.63

seeeeeeb

Down — $135

ohioism

Arbitrage — excluded