Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 82%
1 arb excluded
$6.3K
-$98.23
Smart Money Signal
23 of 29 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$2.21 | 59% 62455-43604 (106059) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 80.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$80.33 | 56% 14669-11554 (26223) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 91.6¢ | $512.55 | $495.92 | -$5.22 | 64% 58688-33274 (91962) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 55.1¢ | $316.99 | $332.77 | +$15.78 | 55% 15663-13037 (28700) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 26.6¢ | $244.37 | — | -$244.37 | 50% 5420-5490 (10910) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 91.3¢ | $235.35 | $257.86 | +$22.51 | 46% 38341-45284 (83625) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 59.6¢ | $205.77 | $241.5 | +$35.73 | 56% 13916-11031 (24947) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 75.4¢ | $200.59 | $230.09 | +$29.5 | 66% 99292-51478 (150770) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 81.8¢ | $227.94 | $231.17 | +$3.23 | 54% 8165-6865 (15030) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 66.8¢ | $168.59 | $205 | +$36.41 | 57% 12630-9701 (22331) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 89.8¢ | $139.4 | $147.59 | +$8.19 | 66% 126396-65094 (191490) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 96.2¢ | $156.32 | $146.82 | -$9.5 | 60% 12392-8220 (20612) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 69.3¢ | $120.94 | $105 | -$15.94 | 55% 8787-7245 (16032) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $167.61 | $100.99 | -$66.62 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72¢ | $72.71 | $100.99 | +$28.28 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.7¢ | $94.9 | — | -$94.9 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $94.25 | $88 | -$6.25 | 55% 7605-6229 (13834) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 93.1¢ | $79.9 | $85.8 | +$5.9 | 55% 45398-37789 (83187) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 74.5¢ | $63.4 | $83.05 | +$19.65 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 48.2¢ | $75.39 | — | -$75.39 | 56% 8113-6259 (14372) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 84.4¢ | $44.9 | $53.18 | +$8.28 | 52% 90788-85318 (176106) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 92.4¢ | $46.6 | $50.43 | +$3.83 | 58% 60765-44349 (105114) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 94.6¢ | $40.71 | $42.3 | +$1.59 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 46.8¢ | $35.99 | — | -$35.99 | 59% 6915-4856 (11771) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $14.58 | $26.47 | +$11.89 | 66% 112335-58986 (171321) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $20 | $26.2 | +$6.2 | 62% 43966-26982 (70948) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $4.76 | — | -$4.76 | 55% 50678-41281 (91959) |
Invested
$2,206.32
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$2.21
Record
59%
62455-43604 (106059)
Invested
$1,046.33
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$80.33
Record
56%
14669-11554 (26223)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$512.55
Value
$495.92
PnL
-$5.22
Record
64%
58688-33274 (91962)
Invested
$316.99
Value
$332.77
PnL
+$15.78
Record
55%
15663-13037 (28700)
Invested
$244.37
Value
—
PnL
-$244.37
Record
50%
5420-5490 (10910)
pspspsps5Invested
$235.35
Value
$257.86
PnL
+$22.51
Record
46%
38341-45284 (83625)
Invested
$205.77
Value
$241.5
PnL
+$35.73
Record
56%
13916-11031 (24947)
Invested
$200.59
Value
$230.09
PnL
+$29.5
Record
66%
99292-51478 (150770)
Invested
$227.94
Value
$231.17
PnL
+$3.23
Record
54%
8165-6865 (15030)
FairValueMachineInvested
$168.59
Value
$205
PnL
+$36.41
Record
57%
12630-9701 (22331)
Invested
$139.4
Value
$147.59
PnL
+$8.19
Record
66%
126396-65094 (191490)
Invested
$156.32
Value
$146.82
PnL
-$9.5
Record
60%
12392-8220 (20612)
machinelearnedInvested
$120.94
Value
$105
PnL
-$15.94
Record
55%
8787-7245 (16032)
Invested
$167.61
Value
$100.99
PnL
-$66.62
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.25
Value
$88
PnL
-$6.25
Record
55%
7605-6229 (13834)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$79.9
Value
$85.8
PnL
+$5.9
Record
55%
45398-37789 (83187)
Invested
$63.4
Value
$83.05
PnL
+$19.65
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$75.39
Value
—
PnL
-$75.39
Record
56%
8113-6259 (14372)
Invested
$44.9
Value
$53.18
PnL
+$8.28
Record
52%
90788-85318 (176106)
Invested
$46.6
Value
$50.43
PnL
+$3.83
Record
58%
60765-44349 (105114)
Invested
$40.71
Value
$42.3
PnL
+$1.59
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
Invested
$35.99
Value
—
PnL
-$35.99
Record
59%
6915-4856 (11771)
Invested
$14.58
Value
$26.47
PnL
+$11.89
Record
66%
112335-58986 (171321)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$20
Value
$26.2
PnL
+$6.2
Record
62%
43966-26982 (70948)
Invested
$4.76
Value
—
PnL
-$4.76
Record
55%
50678-41281 (91959)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $2.2K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.1K
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $495.92
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $332.77
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
pspspsps5
Up — $257.86
GoodFallen
Up — $241.5
Bonereaper
Up — $230.09
sfkjbsr457
Up — $231.17
FairValueMachine
Up — $205