Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$203.8

Smart Money Signal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,138

Combined PnL+$316.28

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares764

Combined PnL-$112.49

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$473.89	$479.88	+$5.99	56% 14669-11554 (26223)
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.1¢	$85.83	—	-$85.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.9¢	$388.06	$479.88	+$91.82
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$396.85	$351.27	-$45.57	55% 15663-13037 (28700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.1¢	$109.18	—	-$109.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.9¢	$287.67	$351.27	+$63.61
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$335.13	$349.12	+$13.99	50% 5420-5490 (10910)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$282.86	$349.12	+$66.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.1¢	$52.28	—	-$52.28
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 68.5¢	$430.7	$628.93	+$198.23	58% 38135-27322 (65457)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 90¢	$147.8	$100	-$47.8	56% 13916-11031 (24947)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.5¢	$57.8	—	-$57.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 90¢	$90	$100	+$10
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 81.2¢	$207.02	$232.51	+$25.49	55% 7605-6229 (13834)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.2¢	$188.9	$232.51	+$43.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.6¢	$18.12	—	-$18.12
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 7.1¢	$16.69	—	-$16.69	46% 38341-45284 (83625)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 69.6¢	$61.48	$51.21	-$10.27	60% 12392-8220 (20612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.6¢	$25.85	—	-$25.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.6¢	$35.62	$51.21	+$15.59
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 17.8¢	$34.05	—	-$34.05	55% 8787-7245 (16032)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 88.1¢	$99.5	$98.67	-$0.84	54% 8165-6865 (15030)
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.1¢	$86.91	$98.67	+$11.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 20¢	$12.6	—	-$12.6
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$2.56	—	-$2.56	63% 52172-31048 (83220)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 89¢	$50.37	$29.95	-$20.42	57% 12630-9701 (22331)
13 13897651	Upavg 59.7¢	$64.35	$107.78	+$43.43	59% 6915-4856 (11771)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$76.03	$81.68	+$5.65	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
BoneOhio	Upavg 67¢	$68	$101.49	+$33.49	74% 102693-36455 (139148)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 51¢	$51.51	$101	+$49.49	56% 8113-6259 (14372)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 16.3¢	$14.88	—	-$14.88	55% 50678-41281 (91959)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$33.33	—	-$33.33	35% 18938-35934 (54872)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 96¢	$44.12	$45	+$0.88	66% 126396-65094 (191490)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$21.75	$24.52	+$2.77	64% 23991-13230 (37221)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$4.48	—	-$4.48	52% 90788-85318 (176106)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 89¢	$11.49	$12.91	+$1.42	55% 24022-19407 (43429)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 28.5¢	$2.95	—	-$2.95	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$3.55	—	-$3.55	58% 51123-37260 (88383)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 73¢	$3.65	$5	+$1.35	55% 45398-37789 (83187)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$473.89

Value

$479.88

PnL

+$5.99

Record

56%

14669-11554 (26223)

Both legs:

Down$85.8311.1¢-$85.83

Up$388.0680.9¢+$91.82

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$396.85

Value

$351.27

PnL

-$45.57

Record

55%

15663-13037 (28700)

Both legs:

Down$109.1826.1¢-$109.18

Up$287.6781.9¢+$63.61

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$335.13

Value

$349.12

PnL

+$13.99

Record

50%

5420-5490 (10910)

Both legs:

Up$282.8681¢+$66.27

Down$52.2815.1¢-$52.28

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$430.7

Value

$628.93

PnL

+$198.23

Record

58%

38135-27322 (65457)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$147.8

Value

$100

PnL

-$47.8

Record

56%

13916-11031 (24947)

Both legs:

Down$57.825.5¢-$57.8

Up$9090¢+$10

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$207.02

Value

$232.51

PnL

+$25.49

Record

55%

7605-6229 (13834)

Both legs:

Up$188.981.2¢+$43.61

Down$18.1222.6¢-$18.12

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.69

Value

—

PnL

-$16.69

Record

46%

38341-45284 (83625)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$61.48

Value

$51.21

PnL

-$10.27

Record

60%

12392-8220 (20612)

Both legs:

Down$25.8518.6¢-$25.85

Up$35.6269.6¢+$15.59

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.05

Value

—

PnL

-$34.05

Record

55%

8787-7245 (16032)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$99.5

Value

$98.67

PnL

-$0.84

Record

54%

8165-6865 (15030)

Both legs:

Up$86.9188.1¢+$11.76

Down$12.620¢-$12.6

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.56

Value

—

PnL

-$2.56

Record

63%

52172-31048 (83220)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$50.37

Value

$29.95

PnL

-$20.42

Record

57%

12630-9701 (22331)

13897651

Invested

$64.35

Value

$107.78

PnL

+$43.43

Record

59%

6915-4856 (11771)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$76.03

Value

$81.68

PnL

+$5.65

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

BoneOhio

Invested

$68

Value

$101.49

PnL

+$33.49

Record

74%

102693-36455 (139148)

wzbbb

Invested

$51.51

Value

$101

PnL

+$49.49

Record

56%

8113-6259 (14372)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.88

Value

—

PnL

-$14.88

Record

55%

50678-41281 (91959)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.33

Value

—

PnL

-$33.33

Record

35%

18938-35934 (54872)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$44.12

Value

$45

PnL

+$0.88

Record

66%

126396-65094 (191490)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$21.75

Value

$24.52

PnL

+$2.77

Record

64%

23991-13230 (37221)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.48

Value

—

PnL

-$4.48

Record

52%

90788-85318 (176106)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$11.49

Value

$12.91

PnL

+$1.42

Record

55%

24022-19407 (43429)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.95

Value

—

PnL

-$2.95

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.55

Value

—

PnL

-$3.55

Record

58%

51123-37260 (88383)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

PnL

+$1.35

Record

55%

45398-37789 (83187)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x26773286...96bf64

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793449800

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.99

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $628.93

+$198.23

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$47.8

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Down — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $0

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded