Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$238.91

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 25 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,395

Combined PnL+$261.28

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares171

Combined PnL-$22.37

Down — 84%Up — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$4.3	59% 62446-43593 (106039)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 88.5¢	$735.39	$770.83	+$35.44	56% 14628-11513 (26141)
pspspsps5	Downavg 97.4¢	$306.05	$311.29	+$5.24	46% 38320-45258 (83578)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 82.3¢	$218.37	$230.75	+$12.38	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 78.5¢	$224.46	$264.69	+$40.23	57% 71205-54305 (125510)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 85.8¢	$204.24	$217.58	+$13.34	54% 8152-6857 (15009)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 86¢	$220.56	$210.33	-$10.23	50% 5409-5480 (10889)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 68.2¢	$260.68	$382.4	+$121.73	58% 38113-27312 (65425)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 72.9¢	$183.65	$190	+$6.35	55% 15645-13034 (28679)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.9¢	$134.64	$159.67	+$25.03	56% 13903-11024 (24927)
machinelearned	Downavg 94.6¢	$127.32	$110	-$17.32	55% 8774-7237 (16011)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$68.42	$100	+$31.58	57% 12618-9693 (22311)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$50.42	$100	+$49.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$18	—	-$18
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$66.19	$67	+$0.81	55% 7593-6220 (13813)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$39.6	$51.05	+$11.45	66% 126346-65068 (191414)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$37.55	$41.47	+$3.92	55% 18043-14638 (32681)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 82¢	$20.01	$22.8	+$2.78	60% 12381-8210 (20591)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 96¢	$19.2	$20	+$0.8	64% 23928-13193 (37121)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$17.82	$18	+$0.18	52% 90753-85289 (176042)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 97¢	$15.1	$15	-$0.1	55% 45345-37754 (83099)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$13.5	$17.18	+$3.68	35% 18929-35926 (54855)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$9.05	—	-$9.05	55% 50677-41281 (91958)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 47.5¢	$9.5	—	-$9.5	58% 51106-37241 (88347)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98¢	$5.88	$6	+$0.12	93% 23917-1795 (25712)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$3.83	—	-$3.83	66% 112325-58945 (171270)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 57¢	$1.52	$2.67	+$1.15	55% 24009-19403 (43412)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$4,281.59

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$4.3

Record

59%

62446-43593 (106039)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$735.39

Value

$770.83

PnL

+$35.44

Record

56%

14628-11513 (26141)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$306.05

Value

$311.29

PnL

+$5.24

Record

46%

38320-45258 (83578)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$218.37

Value

$230.75

PnL

+$12.38

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$224.46

Value

$264.69

PnL

+$40.23

Record

57%

71205-54305 (125510)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$204.24

Value

$217.58

PnL

+$13.34

Record

54%

8152-6857 (15009)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$220.56

Value

$210.33

PnL

-$10.23

Record

50%

5409-5480 (10889)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$260.68

Value

$382.4

PnL

+$121.73

Record

58%

38113-27312 (65425)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$183.65

Value

$190

PnL

+$6.35

Record

55%

15645-13034 (28679)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$134.64

Value

$159.67

PnL

+$25.03

Record

56%

13903-11024 (24927)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$127.32

Value

$110

PnL

-$17.32

Record

55%

8774-7237 (16011)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$68.42

Value

$100

PnL

+$31.58

Record

57%

12618-9693 (22311)

Both legs:

Down$50.4250.4¢+$49.58

Up$1830¢-$18

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$66.19

Value

$67

PnL

+$0.81

Record

55%

7593-6220 (13813)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$39.6

Value

$51.05

PnL

+$11.45

Record

66%

126346-65068 (191414)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$37.55

Value

$41.47

PnL

+$3.92

Record

55%

18043-14638 (32681)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$20.01

Value

$22.8

PnL

+$2.78

Record

60%

12381-8210 (20591)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$19.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.8

Record

64%

23928-13193 (37121)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$17.82

Value

$18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

90753-85289 (176042)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$15.1

Value

$15

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

45345-37754 (83099)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$13.5

Value

$17.18

PnL

+$3.68

Record

35%

18929-35926 (54855)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$9.05

Value

—

PnL

-$9.05

Record

55%

50677-41281 (91958)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

—

PnL

-$9.5

Record

58%

51106-37241 (88347)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$5.88

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

93%

23917-1795 (25712)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$3.83

Value

—

PnL

-$3.83

Record

66%

112325-58945 (171270)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$1.52

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$1.15

Record

55%

24009-19403 (43412)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 25 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbc0c8171...9ce959

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793449500

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $4.3K

+$4.3

CrouchPredictions

Down — $770.83

+$35.44

pspspsps5

Down — $311.29

+$5.24

Bonereaper

Down — $230.75

+$12.38

uninformedfloww

Down — $264.69

+$40.23

sfkjbsr457

Down — $217.58

+$13.34

ply-pm0

Down — $210.33

-$10.23

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $382.4

+$121.73

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $190

+$6.35

GoodFallen

Down — $159.67

+$25.03

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