Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$319.53

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,124

Combined PnL+$479.45

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares649

Combined PnL-$159.92

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearned	Upavg 91.9¢	$518.95	$559.85	+$40.91	55% 8774-7237 (16011)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 58.5¢	$372.78	$636.75	+$263.97	58% 38113-27312 (65425)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 66.7¢	$127.89	$169.23	+$41.33	50% 5409-5480 (10889)
LI Little-big	Upavg 57.7¢	$135.57	$234.78	+$99.21	35% 18929-35926 (54855)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 75.8¢	$121.44	$144	+$22.56	54% 8152-6857 (15009)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 33.2¢	$159.19	$85	-$74.19	55% 15645-13034 (28679)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.2¢	$102.99	—	-$102.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$56.2	$85	+$28.8
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$122.3	$149.39	+$27.1	59% 6908-4845 (11753)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$84.67	$149.39	+$64.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$37.63	—	-$37.63
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 34.1¢	$98.11	$30	-$68.11	56% 13903-11024 (24927)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.1¢	$76.81	—	-$76.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$21.3	$30	+$8.7
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$73.93	$78.21	+$5.87	60% 12381-8210 (20591)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$47.71	$78.21	+$30.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.4¢	$24.85	—	-$24.63
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 90.9¢	$78.95	$80.82	+$1.88	55% 7593-6220 (13813)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 40.2¢	$72.15	$34	-$38.15	56% 8103-6239 (14342)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$53.82	—	-$53.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.9¢	$18.33	$34	+$15.67
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 95.5¢	$82.04	$60	-$22.04	64% 58676-33266 (91942)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 34.7¢	$141.44	—	-$141.44	57% 12618-9693 (22311)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 88.1¢	$48.35	$54.87	+$6.52	66% 126346-65068 (191414)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 71.6¢	$48.69	$67.99	+$19.3	55% 45345-37754 (83099)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$41.34	$40.49	-$0.85	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 94.6¢	$25.02	$26.46	+$1.44	64% 23928-13193 (37121)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 94¢	$23.5	$25	+$1.5	56% 58298-44982 (103280)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 82¢	$15.37	$18.74	+$3.37	46% 38320-45258 (83578)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$15.3	—	-$15.3	58% 51106-37241 (88347)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 93¢	$4.65	$5	+$0.35	55% 18043-14638 (32681)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$1.61	—	-$1.61	63% 52154-31006 (83160)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$1.58	—	-$1.58	56% 14628-11513 (26141)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3659-2838 (6497)

machinelearned

Invested

$518.95

Value

$559.85

PnL

+$40.91

Record

55%

8774-7237 (16011)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$372.78

Value

$636.75

PnL

+$263.97

Record

58%

38113-27312 (65425)

ply-pm0

Invested

$127.89

Value

$169.23

PnL

+$41.33

Record

50%

5409-5480 (10889)

Little-big

Invested

$135.57

Value

$234.78

PnL

+$99.21

Record

35%

18929-35926 (54855)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$121.44

Value

$144

PnL

+$22.56

Record

54%

8152-6857 (15009)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$159.19

Value

$85

PnL

-$74.19

Record

55%

15645-13034 (28679)

Both legs:

Down$102.9933.2¢-$102.99

Up$56.266.1¢+$28.8

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$122.3

Value

$149.39

PnL

+$27.1

Record

59%

6908-4845 (11753)

Both legs:

Up$84.6756.7¢+$64.73

Down$37.6359.6¢-$37.63

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$98.11

Value

$30

PnL

-$68.11

Record

56%

13903-11024 (24927)

Both legs:

Down$76.8134.1¢-$76.81

Up$21.371¢+$8.7

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$73.93

Value

$78.21

PnL

+$5.87

Record

60%

12381-8210 (20591)

Both legs:

Up$47.7161¢+$30.5

Down$24.8527.4¢-$24.63

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$78.95

Value

$80.82

PnL

+$1.88

Record

55%

7593-6220 (13813)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$72.15

Value

$34

PnL

-$38.15

Record

56%

8103-6239 (14342)

Both legs:

Down$53.8240.2¢-$53.82

Up$18.3353.9¢+$15.67

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$82.04

Value

$60

PnL

-$22.04

Record

64%

58676-33266 (91942)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$141.44

Value

—

PnL

-$141.44

Record

57%

12618-9693 (22311)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$48.35

Value

$54.87

PnL

+$6.52

Record

66%

126346-65068 (191414)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$48.69

Value

$67.99

PnL

+$19.3

Record

55%

45345-37754 (83099)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$41.34

Value

$40.49

PnL

-$0.85

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$25.02

Value

$26.46

PnL

+$1.44

Record

64%

23928-13193 (37121)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$23.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

58298-44982 (103280)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$15.37

Value

$18.74

PnL

+$3.37

Record

46%

38320-45258 (83578)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.3

Value

—

PnL

-$15.3

Record

58%

51106-37241 (88347)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

PnL

+$0.35

Record

55%

18043-14638 (32681)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.61

Value

—

PnL

-$1.61

Record

63%

52154-31006 (83160)

CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.58

Value

—

PnL

-$1.58

Record

56%

14628-11513 (26141)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3659-2838 (6497)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x10bf5100...8dac64

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793449200

Traders in this Market

machinelearned

Up — $559.85

+$40.91

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $636.75

+$263.97

ply-pm0

Up — $169.23

+$41.33

Little-big

Up — $234.78

+$99.21

sfkjbsr457

Up — $144

+$22.56

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.87

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $80.82

+$1.88

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