Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$371.4

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 25 top traders (80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,395

Combined PnL+$572.29

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares623

Combined PnL-$200.88

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 64.9¢	$556.5	$857.88	+$301.38	58% 38113-27312 (65425)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 83¢	$355	$385.45	+$30.44	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 76¢	$359.49	$390.15	+$30.66	55% 15645-13034 (28679)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 92.6¢	$326.03	$315.43	-$10.6	64% 58676-33266 (91942)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 86.2¢	$255.46	$243.18	-$12.28	54% 8152-6857 (15009)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 76.5¢	$179.23	$224.13	+$44.91	50% 5409-5480 (10889)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 71.2¢	$132.56	$183.67	+$51.11	60% 12381-8210 (20591)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 48.7¢	$171.86	$184	+$12.14	56% 8103-6239 (14342)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 66.7¢	$120.05	$180.08	+$60.03	56% 58298-44982 (103280)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$76.53	$75.83	-$0.71	55% 8774-7237 (16011)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$67.94	—	-$67.94	59% 6908-4845 (11753)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 25.6¢	$85.36	—	-$85.36	55% 7593-6220 (13813)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 72¢	$55.44	$77	+$21.56	57% 71205-54305 (125510)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$51.84	$51.89	+$0.05	59% 62446-43593 (106039)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$44.95	$60	+$15.06	56% 13903-11024 (24927)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$41	—	-$41	57% 12618-9693 (22311)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 80.5¢	$39.69	$49.33	+$9.64	66% 126346-65068 (191414)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$33	$40	+$7	55% 24009-19403 (43412)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 97¢	$24.25	$25	+$0.75	64% 40299-23045 (63344)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$16.58	$22.81	+$6.23	64% 23928-13193 (37121)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$12.29	$14.51	+$2.22	55% 45345-37754 (83099)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 82¢	$12.3	$15	+$2.7	58% 60750-44342 (105092)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2.3¢	$6.53	—	-$6.53	46% 38320-45258 (83578)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 1.1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	63% 52154-31006 (83160)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3659-2838 (6497)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$556.5

Value

$857.88

PnL

+$301.38

Record

58%

38113-27312 (65425)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$355

Value

$385.45

PnL

+$30.44

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$359.49

Value

$390.15

PnL

+$30.66

Record

55%

15645-13034 (28679)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$326.03

Value

$315.43

PnL

-$10.6

Record

64%

58676-33266 (91942)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$255.46

Value

$243.18

PnL

-$12.28

Record

54%

8152-6857 (15009)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$179.23

Value

$224.13

PnL

+$44.91

Record

50%

5409-5480 (10889)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$132.56

Value

$183.67

PnL

+$51.11

Record

60%

12381-8210 (20591)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$171.86

Value

$184

PnL

+$12.14

Record

56%

8103-6239 (14342)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$120.05

Value

$180.08

PnL

+$60.03

Record

56%

58298-44982 (103280)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$76.53

Value

$75.83

PnL

-$0.71

Record

55%

8774-7237 (16011)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$67.94

Value

—

PnL

-$67.94

Record

59%

6908-4845 (11753)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$85.36

Value

—

PnL

-$85.36

Record

55%

7593-6220 (13813)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$55.44

Value

$77

PnL

+$21.56

Record

57%

71205-54305 (125510)

0x50f7<$100

Down

Invested

$51.84

Value

$51.89

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

62446-43593 (106039)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$44.95

Value

$60

PnL

+$15.06

Record

56%

13903-11024 (24927)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$41

Value

—

PnL

-$41

Record

57%

12618-9693 (22311)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$39.69

Value

$49.33

PnL

+$9.64

Record

66%

126346-65068 (191414)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$33

Value

$40

PnL

+$7

Record

55%

24009-19403 (43412)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$24.25

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

64%

40299-23045 (63344)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$16.58

Value

$22.81

PnL

+$6.23

Record

64%

23928-13193 (37121)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$12.29

Value

$14.51

PnL

+$2.22

Record

55%

45345-37754 (83099)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$12.3

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.7

Record

58%

60750-44342 (105092)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$6.53

Value

—

PnL

-$6.53

Record

46%

38320-45258 (83578)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

63%

52154-31006 (83160)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3659-2838 (6497)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 25 top traders (80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2eb03644...f1b8ff

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793448900

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $857.88

+$301.38

Bonereaper

Down — $385.45

+$30.44

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $390.15

+$30.66

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $315.43

-$10.6

sfkjbsr457

Down — $243.18

-$12.28

ply-pm0

Down — $224.13

+$44.91

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $183.67

+$51.11

wzbbb

Down — $184

+$12.14

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $180.08

+$60.03

machinelearned

Down — $75.83

-$0.71

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