Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Down 67%
$7.7K
-$695.84
Smart Money Signal
18 of 28 top traders (64%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | +$5.2 | 59% 62446-43593 (106039) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 91.9¢ | $715.22 | $712.62 | -$2.61 | 64% 58676-33266 (91942) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 46.4¢ | $508.55 | — | -$508.55 | 58% 38113-27312 (65425) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 83¢ | $349.35 | $342.93 | -$6.42 | 50% 5409-5480 (10889) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $263.62 | $269 | +$5.38 | 93% 23917-1795 (25712) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.7¢ | $179.69 | $195.2 | +$15.51 | 55% 15645-13034 (28679) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 87.4¢ | $185.16 | $189.64 | +$4.53 | 60% 12381-8210 (20591) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 87.6¢ | $195.5 | $178.74 | -$16.76 | 54% 8152-6857 (15009) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 90.4¢ | $165.71 | $141.13 | -$24.58 | 66% 99292-51478 (150770) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 80.1¢ | $116.75 | $130.41 | +$13.66 | 55% 7593-6220 (13813) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $96.94 | — | -$96.94 | 35% 18929-35926 (54855) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $62.97 | $66.32 | +$3.35 | 56% 13903-11024 (24927) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $45 | — | -$45 | 55% 50677-41281 (91958) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 95.5¢ | $65.7 | $64.72 | -$0.98 | 55% 45345-37754 (83099) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $83.01 | $50 | -$33.01 | 55% 8774-7237 (16011) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $43.77 | $51.76 | +$7.99 | 64% 23928-13193 (37121) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $37.16 | $41 | +$3.84 | 77% 9490-2898 (12388) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $31.31 | $35 | +$3.69 | 57% 12618-9693 (22311) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $27.71 | $37.19 | +$9.48 | 66% 126346-65068 (191414) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.8¢ | $17.98 | — | -$17.98 | 59% 6908-4845 (11753) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $17.4 | $20 | +$2.6 | 55% 24009-19403 (43412) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.9¢ | $13.07 | — | -$13.07 | 63% 52154-31006 (83160) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 62% 43949-26970 (70919) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $5.88 | $8.28 | +$2.4 | 74% 102692-36455 (139147) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.88 | — | -$1.88 | 52% 90753-85289 (176042) |
Invested
$5,197.55
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$5.2
Record
59%
62446-43593 (106039)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$715.22
Value
$712.62
PnL
-$2.61
Record
64%
58676-33266 (91942)
Invested
$508.55
Value
—
PnL
-$508.55
Record
58%
38113-27312 (65425)
Invested
$349.35
Value
$342.93
PnL
-$6.42
Record
50%
5409-5480 (10889)
Invested
$263.62
Value
$269
PnL
+$5.38
Record
93%
23917-1795 (25712)
Invested
$179.69
Value
$195.2
PnL
+$15.51
Record
55%
15645-13034 (28679)
Invested
$185.16
Value
$189.64
PnL
+$4.53
Record
60%
12381-8210 (20591)
Invested
$195.5
Value
$178.74
PnL
-$16.76
Record
54%
8152-6857 (15009)
Invested
$165.71
Value
$141.13
PnL
-$24.58
Record
66%
99292-51478 (150770)
Invested
$116.75
Value
$130.41
PnL
+$13.66
Record
55%
7593-6220 (13813)
Invested
$96.94
Value
—
PnL
-$96.94
Record
35%
18929-35926 (54855)
Invested
$62.97
Value
$66.32
PnL
+$3.35
Record
56%
13903-11024 (24927)
Invested
$45
Value
—
PnL
-$45
Record
55%
50677-41281 (91958)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$65.7
Value
$64.72
PnL
-$0.98
Record
55%
45345-37754 (83099)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$83.01
Value
$50
PnL
-$33.01
Record
55%
8774-7237 (16011)
Invested
$43.77
Value
$51.76
PnL
+$7.99
Record
64%
23928-13193 (37121)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$37.16
Value
$41
PnL
+$3.84
Record
77%
9490-2898 (12388)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$31.31
Value
$35
PnL
+$3.69
Record
57%
12618-9693 (22311)
Invested
$27.71
Value
$37.19
PnL
+$9.48
Record
66%
126346-65068 (191414)
Invested
$17.98
Value
—
PnL
-$17.98
Record
59%
6908-4845 (11753)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.6
Record
55%
24009-19403 (43412)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$13.07
Value
—
PnL
-$13.07
Record
63%
52154-31006 (83160)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
62%
43949-26970 (70919)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$5.88
Value
$8.28
PnL
+$2.4
Record
74%
102692-36455 (139147)
Invested
$1.88
Value
—
PnL
-$1.88
Record
52%
90753-85289 (176042)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $5.2K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $712.62
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $342.93
hoodquant
Down — $269
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $195.2
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $189.64
sfkjbsr457
Down — $178.74
Bonereaper
Down — $141.13
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $130.41