Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$887.66

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 33 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,519

Combined PnL+$265.63

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,536

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$157.19	55% 15645-13034 (28679)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 79.1¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$58.45	56% 14628-11513 (26141)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 57.5¢	$909.39	$1.2K	+$244.12	56% 13903-11024 (24927)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 62.4¢	$725.95	$662.85	-$63.1	57% 12618-9693 (22311)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 41.8¢	$445.92	$547.44	+$101.52	50% 5409-5480 (10889)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 62.1¢	$612.03	$507.43	-$86.36	64% 58676-33266 (91942)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 76.2¢	$607.62	$496.88	-$110.74	55% 7593-6220 (13813)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 64¢	$418.81	$457.54	+$41.49	60% 12381-8210 (20591)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 36.9¢	$230.2	—	-$230.2	58% 38113-27312 (65425)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 33¢	$345.4	$258.49	-$86.91	55% 8774-7237 (16011)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.4¢	$138.01	$258.49	+$120.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$207.39	—	-$207.39
SF sfkjbsr457CTR	Upavg 40.1¢	$272.64	—	-$272.64	54% 8152-6857 (15009)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$266.6	$197.6	-$69	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$101.91	$197.6	+$95.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$164.69	—	-$164.69
NIULAI4	Downavg 51.6¢	$138.91	$200	+$61.09	77% 9490-2898 (12388)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 37.6¢	$140.38	—	-$140.38	56% 8103-6239 (14342)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 94.8¢	$194.35	$180	-$14.35	58% 60750-44342 (105092)
ohioism	Downavg 95¢	$158.5	$150	-$8.5	64% 40299-23045 (63344)
MO mo-money	Downavg 95¢	$205.85	$137.23	-$68.62	55% 50677-41281 (91958)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 84.7¢	$119.13	—	-$119.13	46% 38320-45258 (83578)
SI sir-upalotCTR	Upavg 62.6¢	$135.33	—	-$135.33	55% 24009-19403 (43412)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 86.6¢	$84.3	$64.46	-$3.76	64% 23928-13193 (37121)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 87.2¢	$75.29	$51.89	-$23.4	55% 45345-37754 (83099)
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 26.7¢	$105.65	—	-$105.65	51% 17184-16687 (33871)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 51¢	$30.6	$60	+$29.4	57% 10441-7832 (18273)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 47¢	$24	$51.06	+$27.06	35% 18929-35926 (54855)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$5.44	—	-$5.44	59% 62446-43593 (106039)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,275.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$157.19

Record

55%

15645-13034 (28679)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,363.19

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$58.45

Record

56%

14628-11513 (26141)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$909.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$244.12

Record

56%

13903-11024 (24927)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$725.95

Value

$662.85

PnL

-$63.1

Record

57%

12618-9693 (22311)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$445.92

Value

$547.44

PnL

+$101.52

Record

50%

5409-5480 (10889)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$612.03

Value

$507.43

PnL

-$86.36

Record

64%

58676-33266 (91942)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$607.62

Value

$496.88

PnL

-$110.74

Record

55%

7593-6220 (13813)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$418.81

Value

$457.54

PnL

+$41.49

Record

60%

12381-8210 (20591)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$230.2

Value

—

PnL

-$230.2

Record

58%

38113-27312 (65425)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$345.4

Value

$258.49

PnL

-$86.91

Record

55%

8774-7237 (16011)

Both legs:

Down$138.0153.4¢+$120.48

Up$207.3933¢-$207.39

sfkjbsr457CTR

Invested

$272.64

Value

—

PnL

-$272.64

Record

54%

8152-6857 (15009)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$266.6

Value

$197.6

PnL

-$69

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

Both legs:

Down$101.9151.6¢+$95.69

Up$164.6937.3¢-$164.69

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$138.91

Value

$200

PnL

+$61.09

Record

77%

9490-2898 (12388)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$140.38

Value

—

PnL

-$140.38

Record

56%

8103-6239 (14342)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$194.35

Value

$180

PnL

-$14.35

Record

58%

60750-44342 (105092)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$158.5

Value

$150

PnL

-$8.5

Record

64%

40299-23045 (63344)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$205.85

Value

$137.23

PnL

-$68.62

Record

55%

50677-41281 (91958)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$119.13

Value

—

PnL

-$119.13

Record

46%

38320-45258 (83578)

sir-upalotCTR

Invested

$135.33

Value

—

PnL

-$135.33

Record

55%

24009-19403 (43412)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$84.3

Value

$64.46

PnL

-$3.76

Record

64%

23928-13193 (37121)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$75.29

Value

$51.89

PnL

-$23.4

Record

55%

45345-37754 (83099)

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$105.65

Value

—

PnL

-$105.65

Record

51%

17184-16687 (33871)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$30.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$29.4

Record

57%

10441-7832 (18273)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$24

Value

$51.06

PnL

+$27.06

Record

35%

18929-35926 (54855)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

—

PnL

-$5.44

Record

59%

62446-43593 (106039)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 33 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xff34e76f...0830ff

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793447700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.4K

+$157.19

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.3K

-$58.45

GoodFallen

Down — $1.2K

+$244.12

FairValueMachine

Down — $662.85

-$63.1

ply-pm0

Down — $547.44

+$101.52

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $507.43

-$86.36

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $496.88

-$110.74

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $457.54

+$41.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded