Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 93% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 93%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Signal

25 of 27 top traders (93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares15,570

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$62.63

Up — 93%Down — 7%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Up	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$316.6	56% 3659-2838 (6497)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	74% 102692-36455 (139147)
MO mo-money	Upavg 76¢	$986.48	$1.3K	+$311.52	55% 50677-41281 (91958)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 75.4¢	$275.49	$362.12	+$86.63	56% 14628-11513 (26141)
SH Sharky6999	Upavg 99.9¢	$316.13	$316.45	+$0.32	98% 6871-164 (7035)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 84.2¢	$262.42	$269.05	+$6.63	54% 8152-6857 (15009)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 89.1¢	$219.05	$245.87	+$26.82	55% 45345-37754 (83099)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 86.9¢	$262.23	$248.48	-$13.76	50% 5409-5480 (10889)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 75¢	$164.8	$176	+$11.2	55% 7593-6220 (13813)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 81.8¢	$155.6	$181.12	+$25.51	60% 12381-8210 (20591)
pspspsps5	Upavg 85.6¢	$150.9	$176.27	+$25.37	46% 38320-45258 (83578)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 19.5¢	$196.54	$115.72	-$80.82	55% 15645-13034 (28679)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.5¢	$93.14	$115.72	+$22.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.5¢	$103.4	—	-$103.4
LI Little-big	Upavg 68.2¢	$204.66	$300	+$95.34	35% 18929-35926 (54855)
13 13897651	Upavg 57.8¢	$135.34	$204.32	+$68.98	59% 6908-4845 (11753)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 43.3¢	$108.25	$249.99	+$141.74	58% 51106-37241 (88347)
machinelearned	Upavg 82.2¢	$106.1	$111.01	+$4.91	55% 8774-7237 (16011)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 26.8¢	$55.22	—	-$55.22	58% 38113-27312 (65425)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 59.4¢	$102.11	$172	+$69.89	56% 8103-6239 (14342)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 19.5¢	$98.93	$59.41	-$39.52	56% 13903-11024 (24927)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83¢	$49.28	$59.41	+$10.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.5¢	$49.65	—	-$49.65
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 77.7¢	$65.19	$63.6	-$1.59	66% 99292-51478 (150770)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 78¢	$104.82	$134.38	+$29.56	62% 43949-26970 (70919)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81.7¢	$52.77	$58.22	+$5.45	64% 23928-13193 (37121)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 70¢	$70	$100	+$30	51% 17184-16687 (33871)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 85¢	$49.5	$30	-$19.5	57% 12618-9693 (22311)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 86¢	$28.71	$33.38	+$4.67	66% 126346-65068 (191414)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$7,762.42

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$316.6

Record

56%

3659-2838 (6497)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

74%

102692-36455 (139147)

mo-money

Invested

$986.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$311.52

Record

55%

50677-41281 (91958)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$275.49

Value

$362.12

PnL

+$86.63

Record

56%

14628-11513 (26141)

Sharky6999

Invested

$316.13

Value

$316.45

PnL

+$0.32

Record

98%

6871-164 (7035)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$262.42

Value

$269.05

PnL

+$6.63

Record

54%

8152-6857 (15009)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$219.05

Value

$245.87

PnL

+$26.82

Record

55%

45345-37754 (83099)

ply-pm0

Invested

$262.23

Value

$248.48

PnL

-$13.76

Record

50%

5409-5480 (10889)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$164.8

Value

$176

PnL

+$11.2

Record

55%

7593-6220 (13813)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$155.6

Value

$181.12

PnL

+$25.51

Record

60%

12381-8210 (20591)

pspspsps5

Invested

$150.9

Value

$176.27

PnL

+$25.37

Record

46%

38320-45258 (83578)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.54

Value

$115.72

PnL

-$80.82

Record

55%

15645-13034 (28679)

Both legs:

Up$93.1480.5¢+$22.58

Down$103.419.5¢-$103.4

Little-big

Invested

$204.66

Value

$300

PnL

+$95.34

Record

35%

18929-35926 (54855)

13897651

Invested

$135.34

Value

$204.32

PnL

+$68.98

Record

59%

6908-4845 (11753)

PBot-6

Invested

$108.25

Value

$249.99

PnL

+$141.74

Record

58%

51106-37241 (88347)

machinelearned

Invested

$106.1

Value

$111.01

PnL

+$4.91

Record

55%

8774-7237 (16011)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$55.22

Value

—

PnL

-$55.22

Record

58%

38113-27312 (65425)

wzbbb

Invested

$102.11

Value

$172

PnL

+$69.89

Record

56%

8103-6239 (14342)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$98.93

Value

$59.41

PnL

-$39.52

Record

56%

13903-11024 (24927)

Both legs:

Up$49.2883¢+$10.13

Down$49.6519.5¢-$49.65

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$65.19

Value

$63.6

PnL

-$1.59

Record

66%

99292-51478 (150770)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$104.82

Value

$134.38

PnL

+$29.56

Record

62%

43949-26970 (70919)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$52.77

Value

$58.22

PnL

+$5.45

Record

64%

23928-13193 (37121)

gansinimen

Invested

$70

Value

$100

PnL

+$30

Record

51%

17184-16687 (33871)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$49.5

Value

$30

PnL

-$19.5

Record

57%

12618-9693 (22311)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$28.71

Value

$33.38

PnL

+$4.67

Record

66%

126346-65068 (191414)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 27 top traders (93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x57963b80...6ab62d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793447100

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $7.8K

+$316.6

BoneOhio

Up — $3.0K

+$30

mo-money

Up — $1.3K

+$311.52

CrouchPredictions

Up — $362.12

+$86.63

Sharky6999

Up — $316.45

+$0.32

sfkjbsr457

Up — $269.05

+$6.63

MayorMamdani

Up — $245.87

+$26.82

ply-pm0

Up — $248.48

-$13.76

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $176

+$11.2

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $181.12

+$25.51

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