Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$482.71

Smart Money Signal

26 of 31 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up26 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,729

Combined PnL+$550.48

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares502

Combined PnL-$67.77

Up — 84%Down — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 83.1¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$160.94	56% 14626-11513 (26139)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 64.6¢	$821.38	$915.25	+$93.86	50% 5401-5468 (10869)
NIULAI4	Upavg 68¢	$906.17	$743.69	-$162.48	77% 9486-2892 (12378)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 58.9¢	$654.97	$782.4	+$127.43	55% 15635-13029 (28664)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 58¢	$323.53	$557.92	+$234.38	58% 38095-27304 (65399)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60.9¢	$465.26	$501.56	+$36.3	56% 13891-11019 (24910)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 63.4¢	$364.59	$395.1	+$30.51	57% 12608-9686 (22294)
machinelearned	Upavg 79.9¢	$308.85	$309.06	+$0.21	55% 8763-7228 (15991)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 75.5¢	$280.17	$301.86	+$21.69	60% 12368-8204 (20572)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 76.2¢	$223.21	$254.39	+$31.18	54% 8142-6847 (14989)
SP spartacray	Upavg 63.4¢	$200.92	$246.66	+$45.74	53% 27346-24289 (51635)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 74.6¢	$185.73	$163.99	-$21.74	66% 126299-65048 (191347)
pspspsps5	Upavg 36.9¢	$69.26	$162.51	+$93.25	46% 38299-45230 (83529)
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 90¢	$243	$270	+$27	51% 741-704 (1445)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 69.5¢	$92.03	$128.72	+$36.68	55% 23998-19397 (43395)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 42.1¢	$115.56	$58.12	-$57.44	55% 7579-6214 (13793)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.1¢	$65.98	—	-$65.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.3¢	$49.58	$58.12	+$8.54
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 82.6¢	$66.1	$80	+$13.9	62% 43941-26959 (70900)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$39.26	$54.7	+$26.94	64% 23872-13164 (37036)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$50.5	$46.28	+$4.01	61% 95344-60180 (155524)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 83.6¢	$35.15	$40	+$4.85	55% 45212-37592 (82804)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 34.3¢	$13.79	$40.16	+$26.37	49% 78161-81667 (159828)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 71¢	$25.64	$36.11	+$10.47	52% 90722-85259 (175981)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 4.4¢	$16.59	—	-$16.59	66% 112317-58917 (171234)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 50¢	$19	$38	+$19	57% 8090-6223 (14313)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$12.41	$23.66	+$11.25	59% 6897-4838 (11735)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,783.73

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$160.94

Record

56%

14626-11513 (26139)

ply-pm0

Invested

$821.38

Value

$915.25

PnL

+$93.86

Record

50%

5401-5468 (10869)

NIULAI4

Invested

$906.17

Value

$743.69

PnL

-$162.48

Record

77%

9486-2892 (12378)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$654.97

Value

$782.4

PnL

+$127.43

Record

55%

15635-13029 (28664)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$323.53

Value

$557.92

PnL

+$234.38

Record

58%

38095-27304 (65399)

GoodFallen

Invested

$465.26

Value

$501.56

PnL

+$36.3

Record

56%

13891-11019 (24910)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$364.59

Value

$395.1

PnL

+$30.51

Record

57%

12608-9686 (22294)

machinelearned

Invested

$308.85

Value

$309.06

PnL

+$0.21

Record

55%

8763-7228 (15991)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$280.17

Value

$301.86

PnL

+$21.69

Record

60%

12368-8204 (20572)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$223.21

Value

$254.39

PnL

+$31.18

Record

54%

8142-6847 (14989)

spartacray

Invested

$200.92

Value

$246.66

PnL

+$45.74

Record

53%

27346-24289 (51635)

asdaefef

Invested

$185.73

Value

$163.99

PnL

-$21.74

Record

66%

126299-65048 (191347)

pspspsps5

Invested

$69.26

Value

$162.51

PnL

+$93.25

Record

46%

38299-45230 (83529)

seeeeeeb

Invested

$243

Value

$270

PnL

+$27

Record

51%

741-704 (1445)

sir-upalot

Invested

$92.03

Value

$128.72

PnL

+$36.68

Record

55%

23998-19397 (43395)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.56

Value

$58.12

PnL

-$57.44

Record

55%

7579-6214 (13793)

Both legs:

Down$65.9842.1¢-$65.98

Up$49.5885.3¢+$8.54

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$66.1

Value

$80

PnL

+$13.9

Record

62%

43941-26959 (70900)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$39.26

Value

$54.7

PnL

+$26.94

Record

64%

23872-13164 (37036)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$50.5

Value

$46.28

PnL

+$4.01

Record

61%

95344-60180 (155524)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$35.15

Value

$40

PnL

+$4.85

Record

55%

45212-37592 (82804)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$13.79

Value

$40.16

PnL

+$26.37

Record

49%

78161-81667 (159828)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$25.64

Value

$36.11

PnL

+$10.47

Record

52%

90722-85259 (175981)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.59

Value

—

PnL

-$16.59

Record

66%

112317-58917 (171234)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$38

PnL

+$19

Record

57%

8090-6223 (14313)

13897651<$100

Invested

$12.41

Value

$23.66

PnL

+$11.25

Record

59%

6897-4838 (11735)

Smart Money Signal

26 of 31 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3699eefc...cbc2b7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793438100

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.6K

-$160.94

ply-pm0

Up — $915.25

+$93.86

NIULAI4

Up — $743.69

-$162.48

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $782.4

+$127.43

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $557.92

+$234.38

GoodFallen

Up — $501.56

+$36.3

FairValueMachine

Up — $395.1

+$30.51

machinelearned

Up — $309.06

+$0.21

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $301.86

+$21.69

sfkjbsr457

Up — $254.39

+$31.18

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