Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$99.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 30 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,835

Combined PnL+$319.67

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares493

Combined PnL-$219.99

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 66.1¢	$855.42	$931.47	+$76.05	55% 15635-13029 (28664)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 68.5¢	$727.19	$787.92	+$60.73	56% 14626-11513 (26139)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 68.8¢	$565.93	$514.45	-$51.49	50% 5401-5468 (10869)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 90.8¢	$463.23	$510	+$46.77	93% 23898-1792 (25690)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 69.5¢	$389.8	$412.96	+$23.17	56% 13891-11019 (24910)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 60.1¢	$319.72	$400.58	+$80.85	57% 12608-9686 (22294)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 79.2¢	$277.7	$242.75	-$32.94	60% 12368-8204 (20572)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 65.5¢	$184.81	$187.42	+$2.61	54% 8142-6847 (14989)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$196.37	$110	-$86.37	55% 8763-7228 (15991)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$139.47	—	-$139.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$56.9	$110	+$53.1
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 76.4¢	$126.75	$156.06	+$29.3	55% 7579-6214 (13793)
SP spartacray	Downavg 71¢	$156.03	$185.74	+$29.71	53% 27346-24289 (51635)
NIULAI4	Downavg 92¢	$132.54	$129.02	-$3.53	77% 9486-2892 (12378)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 90.8¢	$113.5	$125	+$11.5	56% 58279-44978 (103257)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$57.75	—	-$57.75	59% 6897-4838 (11735)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$54.3	$52.19	-$2.11	55% 23998-19397 (43395)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 50¢	$50	$100	+$50	57% 10437-7825 (18262)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$51.87	—	-$51.87	58% 38095-27304 (65399)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 72.8¢	$52.21	$39.06	-$13.15	64% 23872-13164 (37036)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 89¢	$34.13	$26.6	-$7.53	46% 38299-45230 (83529)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$31.13	—	-$31.13	57% 8090-6223 (14313)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$14.36	—	-$14.36	66% 112317-58917 (171234)
Bossgirl<$100	Downavg 42¢	$14.28	$34	+$19.72	54% 4641-3942 (8583)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 35.8¢	$20.65	—	-$20.65	61% 95344-60180 (155524)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$3.84	—	-$3.84	49% 78161-81667 (159828)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$6.05	—	-$6.05	55% 45212-37592 (82804)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$855.42

Value

$931.47

PnL

+$76.05

Record

55%

15635-13029 (28664)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$727.19

Value

$787.92

PnL

+$60.73

Record

56%

14626-11513 (26139)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$565.93

Value

$514.45

PnL

-$51.49

Record

50%

5401-5468 (10869)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$463.23

Value

$510

PnL

+$46.77

Record

93%

23898-1792 (25690)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$389.8

Value

$412.96

PnL

+$23.17

Record

56%

13891-11019 (24910)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$319.72

Value

$400.58

PnL

+$80.85

Record

57%

12608-9686 (22294)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$277.7

Value

$242.75

PnL

-$32.94

Record

60%

12368-8204 (20572)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$184.81

Value

$187.42

PnL

+$2.61

Record

54%

8142-6847 (14989)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$196.37

Value

$110

PnL

-$86.37

Record

55%

8763-7228 (15991)

Both legs:

Up$139.4751.4¢-$139.47

Down$56.951.7¢+$53.1

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$126.75

Value

$156.06

PnL

+$29.3

Record

55%

7579-6214 (13793)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$156.03

Value

$185.74

PnL

+$29.71

Record

53%

27346-24289 (51635)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$132.54

Value

$129.02

PnL

-$3.53

Record

77%

9486-2892 (12378)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$113.5

Value

$125

PnL

+$11.5

Record

56%

58279-44978 (103257)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$57.75

Value

—

PnL

-$57.75

Record

59%

6897-4838 (11735)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$54.3

Value

$52.19

PnL

-$2.11

Record

55%

23998-19397 (43395)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$50

Value

$100

PnL

+$50

Record

57%

10437-7825 (18262)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$51.87

Value

—

PnL

-$51.87

Record

58%

38095-27304 (65399)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$52.21

Value

$39.06

PnL

-$13.15

Record

64%

23872-13164 (37036)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$34.13

Value

$26.6

PnL

-$7.53

Record

46%

38299-45230 (83529)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$31.13

Value

—

PnL

-$31.13

Record

57%

8090-6223 (14313)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$14.36

Value

—

PnL

-$14.36

Record

66%

112317-58917 (171234)

Bossgirl<$100

Down

Invested

$14.28

Value

$34

PnL

+$19.72

Record

54%

4641-3942 (8583)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$20.65

Value

—

PnL

-$20.65

Record

61%

95344-60180 (155524)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.84

Value

—

PnL

-$3.84

Record

49%

78161-81667 (159828)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$6.05

Value

—

PnL

-$6.05

Record

55%

45212-37592 (82804)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 30 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x23a11a62...f384ef

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793437800

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $931.47

+$76.05

CrouchPredictions

Down — $787.92

+$60.73

ply-pm0

Down — $514.45

-$51.49

hoodquant

Down — $510

+$46.77

GoodFallen

Down — $412.96

+$23.17

FairValueMachine

Down — $400.58

+$80.85

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $242.75

-$32.94

sfkjbsr457

Down — $187.42

+$2.61

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$86.37

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $156.06

+$29.3

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