Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$559.81

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 17 top traders (59%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,211

Combined PnL-$647.28

Up7 traders

Total Value$331.1

Total Shares331

Combined PnL+$87.47

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$166.07	77% 9486-2892 (12378)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$483.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$317.84	—	-$317.84
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$705.37	$725.56	+$20.2	50% 5401-5468 (10869)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$279.06	—	-$279.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$426.31	$725.56	+$299.26
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$682.95	$881.44	+$198.49	55% 15635-13029 (28664)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.9¢	$493.02	$881.44	+$388.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.2¢	$189.93	—	-$189.93
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 46.1¢	$224.84	$421.31	+$196.47	55% 8763-7228 (15991)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$194.39	$421.31	+$226.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.3¢	$30.45	—	-$30.45
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$356.35	$326.3	-$30.05	54% 8142-6847 (14989)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.1¢	$231.94	$326.3	+$94.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.7¢	$124.42	—	-$124.42
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$271.65	$211.8	-$59.85	56% 13891-11019 (24910)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$156.36	—	-$156.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.4¢	$115.3	$211.8	+$96.5
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 45.1¢	$237.78	$149.77	-$88.02	57% 12608-9686 (22294)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.1¢	$160.48	—	-$160.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$77.3	$149.77	+$72.46
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$214.76	$237.82	+$23.05	55% 7579-6214 (13793)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.2¢	$138.38	$237.82	+$99.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$76.38	—	-$76.38
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 57.9¢	$209.95	$246.95	+$37	53% 27346-24289 (51635)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.9¢	$143.02	$246.95	+$103.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$66.93	—	-$66.93
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 49.2¢	$158.54	—	-$158.54	57% 8090-6223 (14313)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 40.1¢	$120.68	—	-$120.68	46% 38299-45230 (83529)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 44.4¢	$105.5	—	-$105.5	35% 18921-35912 (54833)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 74¢	$93.94	$48.11	-$45.84	62% 43941-26959 (70900)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74¢	$76	—	-$76
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$17.94	$48.11	+$30.16
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 74.5¢	$91.18	$87.5	-$3.68	60% 12368-8204 (20572)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.5¢	$65.22	$87.5	+$22.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$25.96	—	-$25.96
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 59.7¢	$71.26	$107.56	+$36.3	55% 23998-19397 (43395)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 38.7¢	$46.84	—	-$46.84	49% 78161-81667 (159828)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$77.8	$86.99	+$9.19	55% 45212-37592 (82804)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 43.8¢	$43.75	—	-$43.75	58% 51093-37229 (88322)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 73¢	$58.84	—	-$58.84	66% 126299-65048 (191347)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$41.93	—	-$41.93	58% 38095-27304 (65399)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$55.96	$63.11	+$18.57	65% 125663-67274 (192937)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Downavg 75¢	$35.32	—	-$35.32	65% 4112-2241 (6353)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 74¢	$33.1	—	-$33.1	58% 60731-44338 (105069)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 71¢	$39.27	$36.51	+$3.89	64% 23872-13164 (37036)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 48.4¢	$13.77	$28.46	+$14.69	61% 95344-60180 (155524)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$1,632.14

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$166.07

Record

77%

9486-2892 (12378)

Both legs:

Up$1,314.373.1¢+$483.91

Down$317.8435¢-$317.84

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$705.37

Value

$725.56

PnL

+$20.2

Record

50%

5401-5468 (10869)

Both legs:

Down$279.0636.6¢-$279.06

Up$426.3158.8¢+$299.26

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$682.95

Value

$881.44

PnL

+$198.49

Record

55%

15635-13029 (28664)

Both legs:

Up$493.0255.9¢+$388.42

Down$189.9339.2¢-$189.93

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$224.84

Value

$421.31

PnL

+$196.47

Record

55%

8763-7228 (15991)

Both legs:

Up$194.3946.1¢+$226.92

Down$30.4512.3¢-$30.45

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$356.35

Value

$326.3

PnL

-$30.05

Record

54%

8142-6847 (14989)

Both legs:

Up$231.9471.1¢+$94.37

Down$124.4242.7¢-$124.42

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$271.65

Value

$211.8

PnL

-$59.85

Record

56%

13891-11019 (24910)

Both legs:

Down$156.3647.7¢-$156.36

Up$115.354.4¢+$96.5

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$237.78

Value

$149.77

PnL

-$88.02

Record

57%

12608-9686 (22294)

Both legs:

Down$160.4845.1¢-$160.48

Up$77.351.6¢+$72.46

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$214.76

Value

$237.82

PnL

+$23.05

Record

55%

7579-6214 (13793)

Both legs:

Up$138.3858.2¢+$99.43

Down$76.3834¢-$76.38

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$209.95

Value

$246.95

PnL

+$37

Record

53%

27346-24289 (51635)

Both legs:

Up$143.0257.9¢+$103.93

Down$66.9350.4¢-$66.93

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$158.54

Value

—

PnL

-$158.54

Record

57%

8090-6223 (14313)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$120.68

Value

—

PnL

-$120.68

Record

46%

38299-45230 (83529)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$105.5

Value

—

PnL

-$105.5

Record

35%

18921-35912 (54833)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$93.94

Value

$48.11

PnL

-$45.84

Record

62%

43941-26959 (70900)

Both legs:

Down$7674¢-$76

Up$17.9437.3¢+$30.16

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$91.18

Value

$87.5

PnL

-$3.68

Record

60%

12368-8204 (20572)

Both legs:

Up$65.2274.5¢+$22.29

Down$25.9642.4¢-$25.96

sir-upalot

Invested

$71.26

Value

$107.56

PnL

+$36.3

Record

55%

23998-19397 (43395)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$46.84

Value

—

PnL

-$46.84

Record

49%

78161-81667 (159828)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$77.8

Value

$86.99

PnL

+$9.19

Record

55%

45212-37592 (82804)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.75

Value

—

PnL

-$43.75

Record

58%

51093-37229 (88322)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.84

Value

—

PnL

-$58.84

Record

66%

126299-65048 (191347)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.93

Value

—

PnL

-$41.93

Record

58%

38095-27304 (65399)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$55.96

Value

$63.11

PnL

+$18.57

Record

65%

125663-67274 (192937)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.32

Value

—

PnL

-$35.32

Record

65%

4112-2241 (6353)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.1

Value

—

PnL

-$33.1

Record

58%

60731-44338 (105069)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$39.27

Value

$36.51

PnL

+$3.89

Record

64%

23872-13164 (37036)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$13.77

Value

$28.46

PnL

+$14.69

Record

61%

95344-60180 (155524)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 17 top traders (59%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9bd39eaf...58d027

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793436900

Traders in this Market

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Down — $0