Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$619.98

Smart Money Signal

14 of 24 top traders (58%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,370

Combined PnL-$151.83

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,204

Combined PnL-$468.16

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$406.1	$413.2	+$7.09	55% 15624-13020 (28644)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$210.04	$413.2	+$203.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.3¢	$196.07	—	-$196.07
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78.2¢	$427.66	$308.57	-$119.09	50% 5387-5463 (10850)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 57.2¢	$239.63	—	-$239.63	58% 38081-27294 (65375)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 82.7¢	$277.24	$200.44	-$75.05	60% 12354-8199 (20553)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.7¢	$165.85	$200.44	+$34.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.9¢	$109.45	—	-$109.65
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 69.8¢	$247.53	$202.89	-$44.64	54% 8135-6835 (14970)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 42.7¢	$188.03	$168.41	-$19.63	56% 13880-11011 (24891)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$92.93	$168.41	+$75.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.7¢	$95.1	—	-$95.1
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 67.5¢	$162.65	$199.4	+$36.75	55% 7569-6206 (13775)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 65.3¢	$155.58	$140	-$15.58	55% 45212-37590 (82802)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$154.23	$112.05	-$42.18	57% 12598-9677 (22275)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$42.96	$112.05	+$69.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$111.26	—	-$111.26
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 44.2¢	$142.31	$50	-$92.31	55% 8753-7219 (15972)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.2¢	$94.81	—	-$94.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 95¢	$47.5	$50	+$2.5
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$169.57	$40.84	-$113.87	64% 58572-33180 (91752)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$135.42	—	-$135.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$24.97	$40.84	+$21.55
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$145.77	$89.95	-$55.82	59% 62419-43575 (105994)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$80.19	$81	+$0.81	93% 23873-1792 (25665)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 53.3¢	$129.09	—	-$129.09	46% 38281-45205 (83486)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$3.76	—	-$3.76	63% 52124-30942 (83066)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$65.81	$52.39	-$12.72	64% 23828-13134 (36962)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$3	—	-$3	77% 9483-2884 (12367)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$55.63	$65.68	+$10.05	66% 126252-65031 (191283)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 56.2¢	$36.5	$65	+$28.5	56% 58267-44968 (103235)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 87.8¢	$55.21	$59.46	+$4.25	65% 125617-67257 (192874)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 68¢	$41.58	$39.98	-$1.61	55% 23993-19391 (43384)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 37.4¢	$29.59	$44.96	+$15.37	53% 27334-24284 (51618)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$43.4	—	-$43.4	49% 78145-81653 (159798)
PA Parad0XCTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$21.6	—	-$21.6	56% 2240-1748 (3988)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 91¢	$19.2	$21.1	+$1.9	64% 40270-23036 (63306)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$406.1

Value

$413.2

PnL

+$7.09

Record

55%

15624-13020 (28644)

Both legs:

Up$210.0450.8¢+$203.16

Down$196.0744.3¢-$196.07

ply-pm0

Invested

$427.66

Value

$308.57

PnL

-$119.09

Record

50%

5387-5463 (10850)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$239.63

Value

—

PnL

-$239.63

Record

58%

38081-27294 (65375)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$277.24

Value

$200.44

PnL

-$75.05

Record

60%

12354-8199 (20553)

Both legs:

Up$165.8582.7¢+$34.6

Down$109.4538.9¢-$109.65

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$247.53

Value

$202.89

PnL

-$44.64

Record

54%

8135-6835 (14970)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.03

Value

$168.41

PnL

-$19.63

Record

56%

13880-11011 (24891)

Both legs:

Up$92.9355.2¢+$75.47

Down$95.142.7¢-$95.1

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$162.65

Value

$199.4

PnL

+$36.75

Record

55%

7569-6206 (13775)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$155.58

Value

$140

PnL

-$15.58

Record

55%

45212-37590 (82802)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.23

Value

$112.05

PnL

-$42.18

Record

57%

12598-9677 (22275)

Both legs:

Up$42.9638.3¢+$69.08

Down$111.2656.2¢-$111.26

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$142.31

Value

$50

PnL

-$92.31

Record

55%

8753-7219 (15972)

Both legs:

Down$94.8144.2¢-$94.81

Up$47.595¢+$2.5

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$169.57

Value

$40.84

PnL

-$113.87

Record

64%

58572-33180 (91752)

Both legs:

Down$135.4261.8¢-$135.42

Up$24.9761.1¢+$21.55

0x50f7

Invested

$145.77

Value

$89.95

PnL

-$55.82

Record

59%

62419-43575 (105994)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$80.19

Value

$81

PnL

+$0.81

Record

93%

23873-1792 (25665)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$129.09

Value

—

PnL

-$129.09

Record

46%

38281-45205 (83486)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.76

Value

—

PnL

-$3.76

Record

63%

52124-30942 (83066)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$65.81

Value

$52.39

PnL

-$12.72

Record

64%

23828-13134 (36962)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

77%

9483-2884 (12367)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$55.63

Value

$65.68

PnL

+$10.05

Record

66%

126252-65031 (191283)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$36.5

Value

$65

PnL

+$28.5

Record

56%

58267-44968 (103235)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$55.21

Value

$59.46

PnL

+$4.25

Record

65%

125617-67257 (192874)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$41.58

Value

$39.98

PnL

-$1.61

Record

55%

23993-19391 (43384)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$29.59

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$15.37

Record

53%

27334-24284 (51618)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.4

Value

—

PnL

-$43.4

Record

49%

78145-81653 (159798)

Parad0XCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.6

Value

—

PnL

-$21.6

Record

56%

2240-1748 (3988)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$21.1

PnL

+$1.9

Record

64%

40270-23036 (63306)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 24 top traders (58%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe4a087ca...28b71d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793436600

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.09

ply-pm0

Up — $308.57

-$119.09

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$239.63

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$75.05

sfkjbsr457

Up — $202.89

-$44.64

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$19.63

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $199.4

+$36.75

MayorMamdani

Up — $140

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded