Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 69%
2 arb excluded
$4.7K
$63.48
Smart Money Signal
21 of 30 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 59.4¢ | $781.16 | $811.14 | +$29.99 | 55% 15624-13020 (28644) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 56.5¢ | $568.87 | $574.97 | +$6.1 | 50% 5387-5463 (10850) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 64¢ | $506.44 | $580.85 | +$74.42 | 56% 13880-11011 (24891) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 74.5¢ | $574.93 | $505.97 | -$68.97 | 77% 9483-2884 (12367) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $396 | $400 | +$4 | 93% 23873-1792 (25665) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 77.5¢ | $302.97 | $351.9 | +$48.93 | 64% 58572-33180 (91752) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 64.4¢ | $318.22 | $335.18 | +$16.96 | 57% 12598-9677 (22275) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 74.4¢ | $223.12 | $270.74 | +$47.62 | 60% 12354-8199 (20553) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 64.9¢ | $202.36 | $242.97 | +$40.62 | 54% 8135-6835 (14970) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 44.1¢ | $110.25 | — | -$110.25 | 58% 51083-37220 (88303) |
SP spartacrayARB<$100 | Upavg 56.7¢ | $96.29 | $110.36 | +$14.07 | 53% 27334-24284 (51618) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.7¢ | $62.59 | $110.36 | +$47.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.3¢ | $33.71 | — | -$33.71 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 59.3¢ | $86.33 | $100 | +$13.67 | 55% 8753-7219 (15972) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 80.5¢ | $93.62 | $72.72 | -$20.91 | 55% 7569-6206 (13775) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 80.5¢ | $58.54 | $72.72 | +$14.18 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.2¢ | $35.09 | — | -$35.09 | |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.3¢ | $43.5 | — | -$43.5 | 57% 12714-9418 (22132) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $38.6 | $59.99 | +$21.4 | 55% 23993-19391 (43384) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $46.08 | — | -$46.08 | 59% 6885-4832 (11717) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $40.31 | — | -$40.31 | 57% 8076-6209 (14285) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $40.9 | $60 | +$19.1 | 64% 23828-13134 (36962) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $34.8 | $60 | +$25.2 | 65% 125617-67257 (192874) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $38.66 | $41.33 | +$2.95 | 61% 95305-60157 (155462) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $21.5 | $25.82 | +$4.32 | 58% 60720-44332 (105052) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 74.4¢ | $33.45 | $44.94 | +$11.49 | 66% 126252-65031 (191283) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $20.95 | — | -$20.95 | 56% 58267-44968 (103235) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $16.75 | $27.46 | +$10.71 | 62% 43934-26954 (70888) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $14.7 | $30 | +$15.3 | 55% 45212-37590 (82802) |
Invested
$781.16
Value
$811.14
PnL
+$29.99
Record
55%
15624-13020 (28644)
Invested
$568.87
Value
$574.97
PnL
+$6.1
Record
50%
5387-5463 (10850)
Invested
$506.44
Value
$580.85
PnL
+$74.42
Record
56%
13880-11011 (24891)
NIULAI4Invested
$574.93
Value
$505.97
PnL
-$68.97
Record
77%
9483-2884 (12367)
Invested
$396
Value
$400
PnL
+$4
Record
93%
23873-1792 (25665)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$302.97
Value
$351.9
PnL
+$48.93
Record
64%
58572-33180 (91752)
FairValueMachineInvested
$318.22
Value
$335.18
PnL
+$16.96
Record
57%
12598-9677 (22275)
Invested
$223.12
Value
$270.74
PnL
+$47.62
Record
60%
12354-8199 (20553)
Invested
$202.36
Value
$242.97
PnL
+$40.62
Record
54%
8135-6835 (14970)
Invested
$110.25
Value
—
PnL
-$110.25
Record
58%
51083-37220 (88303)
Invested
$96.29
Value
$110.36
PnL
+$14.07
Record
53%
27334-24284 (51618)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$86.33
Value
$100
PnL
+$13.67
Record
55%
8753-7219 (15972)
Invested
$93.62
Value
$72.72
PnL
-$20.91
Record
55%
7569-6206 (13775)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$43.5
Value
—
PnL
-$43.5
Record
57%
12714-9418 (22132)
Invested
$38.6
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$21.4
Record
55%
23993-19391 (43384)
Invested
$46.08
Value
—
PnL
-$46.08
Record
59%
6885-4832 (11717)
Invested
$40.31
Value
—
PnL
-$40.31
Record
57%
8076-6209 (14285)
Invested
$40.9
Value
$60
PnL
+$19.1
Record
64%
23828-13134 (36962)
Invested
$34.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$25.2
Record
65%
125617-67257 (192874)
Invested
$38.66
Value
$41.33
PnL
+$2.95
Record
61%
95305-60157 (155462)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$25.82
PnL
+$4.32
Record
58%
60720-44332 (105052)
Invested
$33.45
Value
$44.94
PnL
+$11.49
Record
66%
126252-65031 (191283)
Invested
$20.95
Value
—
PnL
-$20.95
Record
56%
58267-44968 (103235)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$16.75
Value
$27.46
PnL
+$10.71
Record
62%
43934-26954 (70888)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$14.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$15.3
Record
55%
45212-37590 (82802)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $811.14
ply-pm0
Up — $574.97
GoodFallen
Up — $580.85
NIULAI4
Up — $505.97
hoodquant
Up — $400
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $351.9
FairValueMachine
Up — $335.18
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $270.74
sfkjbsr457
Up — $242.97
PBot-6
CTRDown — $0