Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$80.99

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,591

Combined PnL+$224.06

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,523

Combined PnL-$305.05

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 60.1¢	$831.55	$807.05	-$24.5	55% 15624-13020 (28644)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.1¢	$862.61	$879	+$16.39	93% 23873-1792 (25665)
NIULAI4	Upavg 86¢	$533.42	$573.95	+$40.53	77% 9483-2884 (12367)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 65.5¢	$529.43	$496.46	-$32.97	56% 13880-11011 (24891)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 72.3¢	$493.85	$482.33	-$11.52	60% 12354-8199 (20553)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 60.7¢	$431.3	$403.49	-$27.81	50% 5387-5463 (10850)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.7¢	$244.99	$403.49	+$158.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.6¢	$186.31	—	-$186.31
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 86.1¢	$386.66	$404.6	+$17.94	55% 7569-6206 (13775)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$330.34	$256.42	-$73.92	57% 12598-9677 (22275)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$176.72	$256.42	+$79.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.3¢	$153.62	—	-$153.62
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 72.4¢	$136.78	$167.17	+$30.39	64% 58572-33180 (91752)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.4¢	$121.05	$167.17	+$46.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 5¢	$15.73	—	-$15.73
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$288.61	$157.57	-$131.04	55% 8753-7219 (15972)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.4¢	$114.02	$157.57	+$43.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$174.59	—	-$174.59
SP spartacray	Upavg 68.9¢	$179.62	$169.04	-$10.58	53% 27334-24284 (51618)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 50.1¢	$118.75	—	-$118.75	57% 8076-6209 (14285)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 65.7¢	$341.43	$121.6	+$33.1	54% 8135-6835 (14970)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 78.4¢	$112.11	$126.01	+$13.9	55% 45212-37590 (82802)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 77.7¢	$66.06	$64.87	-$1.19	66% 126252-65031 (191283)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.7¢	$50.37	$64.87	+$14.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.6¢	$15.69	—	-$15.69
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$80.93	$83.87	+$2.94	55% 23993-19391 (43384)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 92.6¢	$68.8	$70.3	+$1.5	65% 125617-67257 (192874)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 3.5¢	$22.58	—	-$22.58	52% 90691-85227 (175918)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 64¢	$37.1	$50	+$12.9	62% 43934-26954 (70888)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 36.9¢	$27.82	$40.14	+$12.32	56% 58267-44968 (103235)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 51.2¢	$50.03	—	-$50.03	59% 6885-4832 (11717)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$42.33	$84.66	+$42.33	58% 38081-27294 (65375)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 3.6¢	$13.82	—	-$11.84	61% 95305-60157 (155462)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 40¢	$40	$99.99	+$59.99	51% 17179-16685 (33864)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$35.5	—	-$35.5	64% 23828-13134 (36962)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$831.55

Value

$807.05

PnL

-$24.5

Record

55%

15624-13020 (28644)

hoodquant

Invested

$862.61

Value

$879

PnL

+$16.39

Record

93%

23873-1792 (25665)

NIULAI4

Invested

$533.42

Value

$573.95

PnL

+$40.53

Record

77%

9483-2884 (12367)

GoodFallen

Invested

$529.43

Value

$496.46

PnL

-$32.97

Record

56%

13880-11011 (24891)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$493.85

Value

$482.33

PnL

-$11.52

Record

60%

12354-8199 (20553)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$431.3

Value

$403.49

PnL

-$27.81

Record

50%

5387-5463 (10850)

Both legs:

Up$244.9960.7¢+$158.5

Down$186.3121.6¢-$186.31

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$386.66

Value

$404.6

PnL

+$17.94

Record

55%

7569-6206 (13775)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$330.34

Value

$256.42

PnL

-$73.92

Record

57%

12598-9677 (22275)

Both legs:

Up$176.7268.9¢+$79.7

Down$153.6231.3¢-$153.62

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$136.78

Value

$167.17

PnL

+$30.39

Record

64%

58572-33180 (91752)

Both legs:

Up$121.0572.4¢+$46.12

Down$15.735¢-$15.73

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$288.61

Value

$157.57

PnL

-$131.04

Record

55%

8753-7219 (15972)

Both legs:

Up$114.0272.4¢+$43.55

Down$174.5955.9¢-$174.59

spartacray

Invested

$179.62

Value

$169.04

PnL

-$10.58

Record

53%

27334-24284 (51618)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$118.75

Value

—

PnL

-$118.75

Record

57%

8076-6209 (14285)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$341.43

Value

$121.6

PnL

+$33.1

Record

54%

8135-6835 (14970)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$112.11

Value

$126.01

PnL

+$13.9

Record

55%

45212-37590 (82802)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$66.06

Value

$64.87

PnL

-$1.19

Record

66%

126252-65031 (191283)

Both legs:

Up$50.3777.7¢+$14.5

Down$15.694.6¢-$15.69

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$80.93

Value

$83.87

PnL

+$2.94

Record

55%

23993-19391 (43384)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$68.8

Value

$70.3

PnL

+$1.5

Record

65%

125617-67257 (192874)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.58

Value

—

PnL

-$22.58

Record

52%

90691-85227 (175918)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$37.1

Value

$50

PnL

+$12.9

Record

62%

43934-26954 (70888)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$27.82

Value

$40.14

PnL

+$12.32

Record

56%

58267-44968 (103235)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.03

Value

—

PnL

-$50.03

Record

59%

6885-4832 (11717)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$42.33

Value

$84.66

PnL

+$42.33

Record

58%

38081-27294 (65375)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.82

Value

—

PnL

-$11.84

Record

61%

95305-60157 (155462)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$59.99

Record

51%

17179-16685 (33864)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.5

Value

—

PnL

-$35.5

Record

64%

23828-13134 (36962)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x83f048fb...b33629

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793435700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $807.05

-$24.5

hoodquant

Up — $879

+$16.39

NIULAI4

Up — $573.95

+$40.53

GoodFallen

Up — $496.46

-$32.97

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $482.33

-$11.52

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$27.81

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $404.6

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded