Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 84%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$174.45

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 20 top traders (85%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,015

Combined PnL+$305.64

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares336

Combined PnL-$131.19

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 49¢	$244.38	$302.31	+$57.93	56% 13880-11011 (24891)
pspspsps5	Downavg 99¢	$285.27	$262.6	-$22.67	46% 38281-45205 (83486)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 59.4¢	$198.77	$252.93	+$54.15	55% 15624-13020 (28644)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 79.3¢	$261.59	$224.91	-$36.68	50% 5387-5463 (10850)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 70¢	$232.21	$216.1	+$199.98	54% 8135-6835 (14970)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 86.2¢	$187.45	$217.51	+$30.06	56% 58267-44968 (103235)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$145.47	$180	+$34.53	57% 12598-9677 (22275)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.6¢	$71.2	$180	+$108.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$74.27	—	-$74.27
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 80.5¢	$167.88	$155.6	-$12.28	60% 12354-8199 (20553)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 48.8¢	$145.2	$79.62	-$65.58	57% 8076-6209 (14285)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$105.39	—	-$105.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$39.81	$79.62	+$39.81
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 56.2¢	$128.05	—	-$128.05	58% 38081-27294 (65375)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$206.51	$100	-$106.51	55% 8753-7219 (15972)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.5¢	$90.5	$100	+$9.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$116.01	—	-$116.01
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 75¢	$64.79	$64.1	-$0.69	55% 7569-6206 (13775)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$48.07	$64.1	+$16.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 19¢	$16.72	—	-$16.72
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 94.8¢	$82.28	$73.05	-$8.63	61% 95305-60157 (155462)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$61.69	$50.76	-$10.93	59% 6885-4832 (11717)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$35.4	—	-$35.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$26.29	$50.76	+$24.47
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 85¢	$90.97	$55.65	-$35.32	55% 45212-37590 (82802)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$47.3	$55.65	+$8.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$43.67	—	-$43.67
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 55¢	$41.83	$59.98	+$18.14	53% 27334-24284 (51618)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$74.75	$30	-$15.65	64% 58572-33180 (91752)
└ Down leg	Downavg 93.5¢	$28.05	$30	+$3
└ Up leg	Upavg 8¢	$18.65	—	-$18.65
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$47.67	$55.75	+$8.08	64% 23828-13134 (36962)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 81.7¢	$67.22	$51.99	-$15.23	66% 126252-65031 (191283)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$46.53	$47	+$0.47	52% 90691-85227 (175918)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 70¢	$42.6	$60.86	+$18.26	65% 125617-67257 (192874)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$3.09	—	-$3.09	49% 78145-81653 (159798)
PA Parad0X<$100	Downavg 57¢	$12	$21.05	+$9.05	56% 2240-1748 (3988)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 53¢	$4.52	$8.53	+$4.01	35% 18914-35904 (54818)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 79¢	$3.76	$4.76	+$1	55% 23993-19391 (43384)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$244.38

Value

$302.31

PnL

+$57.93

Record

56%

13880-11011 (24891)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$285.27

Value

$262.6

PnL

-$22.67

Record

46%

38281-45205 (83486)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$198.77

Value

$252.93

PnL

+$54.15

Record

55%

15624-13020 (28644)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$261.59

Value

$224.91

PnL

-$36.68

Record

50%

5387-5463 (10850)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$232.21

Value

$216.1

PnL

+$199.98

Record

54%

8135-6835 (14970)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$187.45

Value

$217.51

PnL

+$30.06

Record

56%

58267-44968 (103235)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$145.47

Value

$180

PnL

+$34.53

Record

57%

12598-9677 (22275)

Both legs:

Down$71.239.6¢+$108.8

Up$74.2753.6¢-$74.27

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$167.88

Value

$155.6

PnL

-$12.28

Record

60%

12354-8199 (20553)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$145.2

Value

$79.62

PnL

-$65.58

Record

57%

8076-6209 (14285)

Both legs:

Up$105.3948.8¢-$105.39

Down$39.8150¢+$39.81

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$128.05

Value

—

PnL

-$128.05

Record

58%

38081-27294 (65375)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$206.51

Value

$100

PnL

-$106.51

Record

55%

8753-7219 (15972)

Both legs:

Down$90.590.5¢+$9.5

Up$116.0148.3¢-$116.01

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$64.79

Value

$64.1

PnL

-$0.69

Record

55%

7569-6206 (13775)

Both legs:

Invested

$82.28

Value

$73.05

PnL

-$8.63

Record

61%

95305-60157 (155462)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$61.69

Value

$50.76

PnL

-$10.93

Record

59%

6885-4832 (11717)

Both legs:

Up$35.449.3¢-$35.4

Down$26.2951.8¢+$24.47

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90.97

Value

$55.65

PnL

-$35.32

Record

55%

45212-37590 (82802)

Both legs:

Invested

$41.83

Value

$59.98

PnL

+$18.14

Record

53%

27334-24284 (51618)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$74.75

Value

$30

PnL

-$15.65

Record

64%

58572-33180 (91752)

Both legs:

Invested

$47.67

Value

$55.75

PnL

+$8.08

Record

64%

23828-13134 (36962)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$67.22

Value

$51.99

PnL

-$15.23

Record

66%

126252-65031 (191283)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$46.53

Value

$47

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

90691-85227 (175918)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$42.6

Value

$60.86

PnL

+$18.26

Record

65%

125617-67257 (192874)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

—

PnL

-$3.09

Record

49%

78145-81653 (159798)

Parad0X<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

$21.05

PnL

+$9.05

Record

56%

2240-1748 (3988)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$4.52

Value

$8.53

PnL

+$4.01

Record

35%

18914-35904 (54818)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$3.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

23993-19391 (43384)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 20 top traders (85%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0e2fdb94...3c494b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793435400

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Down — $302.31

+$57.93

pspspsps5

Down — $262.6

-$22.67

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $252.93

+$54.15

ply-pm0

Down — $224.91

-$36.68

sfkjbsr457

Down — $216.1

+$199.98

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $217.51

+$30.06

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$34.53

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $155.6

-$12.28

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$65.58

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$128.05

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