Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$46.03

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,102

Combined PnL+$163.25

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,139

Combined PnL-$209.28

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57.1¢	$456.15	$515.84	+$59.7	55% 15624-13020 (28644)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.1¢	$294.61	$515.84	+$221.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$161.54	—	-$161.54
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 65.4¢	$349.13	$343.35	-$5.78	50% 5387-5463 (10850)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$244.83	$321.32	+$76.49	56% 13880-11011 (24891)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$161.63	$321.32	+$159.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.7¢	$83.2	—	-$83.2
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 61.9¢	$173.93	$179.3	+$5.37	60% 12354-8199 (20553)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.9¢	$111.01	$179.3	+$68.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.7¢	$62.92	—	-$62.92
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 64.6¢	$154.28	$150.33	-$3.94	54% 8135-6835 (14970)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 58.7¢	$160.81	$274.1	+$113.29	58% 38081-27294 (65375)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$149.63	$175.65	+$26.02	55% 7569-6206 (13775)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$98.89	$175.65	+$76.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.6¢	$50.74	—	-$50.74
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$153.05	$160	+$6.95	53% 27334-24284 (51618)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.1¢	$110.6	$160	+$49.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$42.45	—	-$42.45
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 59.3¢	$130.98	$143.44	+$12.45	57% 12598-9677 (22275)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$85.12	$143.44	+$58.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$45.86	—	-$45.86
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 41.7¢	$108.9	$41.94	-$66.96	55% 8753-7219 (15972)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.7¢	$78.34	—	-$78.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.9¢	$30.56	$41.94	+$11.38
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 43.2¢	$80.69	—	-$80.69	64% 58572-33180 (91752)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$68.53	$57.72	-$10.81	59% 6885-4832 (11717)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$40.63	—	-$40.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$27.9	$57.72	+$29.82
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 91.5¢	$100.08	$76.61	-$23.47	66% 126252-65031 (191283)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.5¢	$70.12	$76.61	+$6.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.7¢	$29.96	—	-$29.96
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$58.38	$96.78	+$38.39	57% 8076-6209 (14285)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 33.9¢	$44.96	—	-$44.96	51% 17179-16685 (33864)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 89¢	$54.6	$61.35	+$6.75	65% 125617-67257 (192874)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$34.77	$30	-$4.77	61% 95305-60157 (155462)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 69¢	$32.85	$25	-$7.85	64% 40270-23036 (63306)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 46.9¢	$27.99	$43.28	+$15.29	35% 18914-35904 (54818)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 42.4¢	$24.06	—	-$24.06	55% 45212-37590 (82802)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 80¢	$26.4	$20	-$6.4	55% 23993-19391 (43384)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 11.6¢	$5.09	—	-$5.09	46% 38281-45205 (83486)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 72¢	$18	$25	+$7	62% 43934-26954 (70888)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 42.6¢	$25.25	$23.56	+$8.6	64% 23828-13134 (36962)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$12.25	—	-$12.25	58% 51083-37220 (88303)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$456.15

Value

$515.84

PnL

+$59.7

Record

55%

15624-13020 (28644)

Both legs:

Down$294.6157.1¢+$221.24

Up$161.5451.1¢-$161.54

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$349.13

Value

$343.35

PnL

-$5.78

Record

50%

5387-5463 (10850)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$244.83

Value

$321.32

PnL

+$76.49

Record

56%

13880-11011 (24891)

Both legs:

Down$161.6350.3¢+$159.69

Up$83.245.7¢-$83.2

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$173.93

Value

$179.3

PnL

+$5.37

Record

60%

12354-8199 (20553)

Both legs:

Down$111.0161.9¢+$68.29

Up$62.9247.7¢-$62.92

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$154.28

Value

$150.33

PnL

-$3.94

Record

54%

8135-6835 (14970)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$160.81

Value

$274.1

PnL

+$113.29

Record

58%

38081-27294 (65375)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$149.63

Value

$175.65

PnL

+$26.02

Record

55%

7569-6206 (13775)

Both legs:

Down$98.8956.3¢+$76.76

Up$50.7464.6¢-$50.74

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$153.05

Value

$160

PnL

+$6.95

Record

53%

27334-24284 (51618)

Both legs:

Down$110.669.1¢+$49.4

Up$42.4547.5¢-$42.45

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$130.98

Value

$143.44

PnL

+$12.45

Record

57%

12598-9677 (22275)

Both legs:

Down$85.1259.3¢+$58.32

Up$45.8656¢-$45.86

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$108.9

Value

$41.94

PnL

-$66.96

Record

55%

8753-7219 (15972)

Both legs:

Up$78.3441.7¢-$78.34

Down$30.5672.9¢+$11.38

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$80.69

Value

—

PnL

-$80.69

Record

64%

58572-33180 (91752)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$68.53

Value

$57.72

PnL

-$10.81

Record

59%

6885-4832 (11717)

Both legs:

Up$40.6351.1¢-$40.63

Down$27.948.3¢+$29.82

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100.08

Value

$76.61

PnL

-$23.47

Record

66%

126252-65031 (191283)

Both legs:

Down$70.1291.5¢+$6.49

Up$29.9659.7¢-$29.96

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$58.38

Value

$96.78

PnL

+$38.39

Record

57%

8076-6209 (14285)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$44.96

Value

—

PnL

-$44.96

Record

51%

17179-16685 (33864)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$54.6

Value

$61.35

PnL

+$6.75

Record

65%

125617-67257 (192874)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$34.77

Value

$30

PnL

-$4.77

Record

61%

95305-60157 (155462)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$32.85

Value

$25

PnL

-$7.85

Record

64%

40270-23036 (63306)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$27.99

Value

$43.28

PnL

+$15.29

Record

35%

18914-35904 (54818)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$24.06

Value

—

PnL

-$24.06

Record

55%

45212-37590 (82802)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$26.4

Value

$20

PnL

-$6.4

Record

55%

23993-19391 (43384)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

—

PnL

-$5.09

Record

46%

38281-45205 (83486)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$18

Value

$25

PnL

+$7

Record

62%

43934-26954 (70888)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$25.25

Value

$23.56

PnL

+$8.6

Record

64%

23828-13134 (36962)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$12.25

Value

—

PnL

-$12.25

Record

58%

51083-37220 (88303)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf22d3936...7fd66d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793435100

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$59.7

ply-pm0

Down — $343.35

-$5.78

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$76.49

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.37

sfkjbsr457

Down — $150.33

-$3.94

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $274.1

+$113.29

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded