Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
27
Up 48%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 27 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 60.2¢ | $393.32 | — | -$393.32 | 57% 8076-6209 (14285) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $230.67 | $233 | +$2.33 | 93% 23873-1792 (25665) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 33.2¢ | $278.78 | — | -$278.78 | 55% 15624-13020 (28644) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $186.18 | $143.28 | -$42.9 | 54% 8135-6835 (14970) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 42.1¢ | $190.74 | — | -$190.74 | 50% 5387-5463 (10850) |
13 13897651CTR | Upavg 58.9¢ | $133.78 | — | -$133.78 | 59% 6885-4832 (11717) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 31.7¢ | $51.36 | $158.58 | +$107.22 | 58% 38081-27294 (65375) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Upavg 57.3¢ | $189.6 | — | -$185.95 | 60% 12354-8199 (20553) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 99¢ | $109.91 | $100 | -$9.91 | 51% 17179-16685 (33864) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 55.3¢ | $324.67 | $72 | -$252.67 | 55% 8753-7219 (15972) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 93¢ | $66.96 | $72 | +$5.04 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.3¢ | $257.71 | — | -$257.71 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 37.7¢ | $225.44 | — | -$195.74 | 64% 58572-33180 (91752) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 38.7¢ | $117.49 | — | -$117.49 | 57% 12598-9677 (22275) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.6¢ | $91.86 | — | -$91.86 | 56% 13880-11011 (24891) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $42.28 | $68.5 | +$26.22 | 55% 7569-6206 (13775) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 68.2¢ | $78.3 | — | -$78.3 | 35% 18914-35904 (54818) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $43.6 | $84.7 | +$41.1 | 57% 10432-7822 (18254) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $47.68 | $41.67 | -$6.01 | 52% 90691-85227 (175918) |
SP spartacrayCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $33.54 | — | -$33.54 | 53% 27334-24284 (51618) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 97.6¢ | $41.36 | $32.75 | -$8.61 | 61% 95305-60157 (155462) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $30.8 | $25 | -$5.8 | 64% 40270-23036 (63306) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $19.74 | $20 | +$0.26 | 65% 125617-67257 (192874) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $21 | $25 | +$4 | 56% 58267-44968 (103235) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $21.07 | $24.91 | +$3.84 | 55% 23993-19391 (43384) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $25.82 | $17 | -$8.82 | 66% 126252-65031 (191283) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $14.4 | — | -$14.4 | 56% 2240-1748 (3988) |
Invested
$393.32
Value
—
PnL
-$393.32
Record
57%
8076-6209 (14285)
Invested
$230.67
Value
$233
PnL
+$2.33
Record
93%
23873-1792 (25665)
Invested
$278.78
Value
—
PnL
-$278.78
Record
55%
15624-13020 (28644)
Invested
$186.18
Value
$143.28
PnL
-$42.9
Record
54%
8135-6835 (14970)
Invested
$190.74
Value
—
PnL
-$190.74
Record
50%
5387-5463 (10850)
Invested
$133.78
Value
—
PnL
-$133.78
Record
59%
6885-4832 (11717)
Invested
$51.36
Value
$158.58
PnL
+$107.22
Record
58%
38081-27294 (65375)
Invested
$189.6
Value
—
PnL
-$185.95
Record
60%
12354-8199 (20553)
Invested
$109.91
Value
$100
PnL
-$9.91
Record
51%
17179-16685 (33864)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$324.67
Value
$72
PnL
-$252.67
Record
55%
8753-7219 (15972)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$225.44
Value
—
PnL
-$195.74
Record
64%
58572-33180 (91752)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$117.49
Value
—
PnL
-$117.49
Record
57%
12598-9677 (22275)
Invested
$91.86
Value
—
PnL
-$91.86
Record
56%
13880-11011 (24891)
Invested
$42.28
Value
$68.5
PnL
+$26.22
Record
55%
7569-6206 (13775)
Invested
$78.3
Value
—
PnL
-$78.3
Record
35%
18914-35904 (54818)
Invested
$43.6
Value
$84.7
PnL
+$41.1
Record
57%
10432-7822 (18254)
Invested
$47.68
Value
$41.67
PnL
-$6.01
Record
52%
90691-85227 (175918)
Invested
$33.54
Value
—
PnL
-$33.54
Record
53%
27334-24284 (51618)
Invested
$41.36
Value
$32.75
PnL
-$8.61
Record
61%
95305-60157 (155462)
ohioism<$100Invested
$30.8
Value
$25
PnL
-$5.8
Record
64%
40270-23036 (63306)
Invested
$19.74
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.26
Record
65%
125617-67257 (192874)
Invested
$21
Value
$25
PnL
+$4
Record
56%
58267-44968 (103235)
Invested
$21.07
Value
$24.91
PnL
+$3.84
Record
55%
23993-19391 (43384)
Invested
$25.82
Value
$17
PnL
-$8.82
Record
66%
126252-65031 (191283)
Invested
$14.4
Value
—
PnL
-$14.4
Record
56%
2240-1748 (3988)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $233
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
sfkjbsr457
Down — $143.28
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
13897651
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $158.58
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRUp — $0
gansinimen
Down — $100
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded