Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$399.11

Smart Money Signal

23 of 31 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares11,423

Combined PnL+$493.22

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares390

Combined PnL-$94.11

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Up	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$0.16	56% 3657-2838 (6495)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 66.1¢	$490.18	$526.3	+$36.12	55% 15624-13020 (28644)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 79.5¢	$461.48	$469.47	+$16.36	64% 58572-33180 (91752)
machinelearned	Upavg 60.6¢	$287.27	$465.46	+$178.2	55% 8753-7219 (15972)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 73.6¢	$311.63	$310.89	-$0.74	50% 5387-5463 (10850)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 63.6¢	$264.69	$276.88	+$12.19	57% 12598-9677 (22275)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 66.1¢	$214.93	$242.33	+$27.4	54% 8135-6835 (14970)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$277.91	$180.99	-$96.92	58% 38081-27294 (65375)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.5¢	$107.68	$180.99	+$73.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$170.23	—	-$170.23
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 60.5¢	$172.62	$231	+$59.93	60% 12354-8199 (20553)
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 79¢	$213.3	$270	+$56.7	51% 740-704 (1444)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60.6¢	$147.49	$131	-$16.49	56% 13880-11011 (24891)
SP spartacray	Upavg 63.9¢	$102.41	$132.56	+$30.15	53% 27334-24284 (51618)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 77¢	$88.05	$88	-$0.05	55% 7569-6206 (13775)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$38.4	$60	+$23.28	64% 23828-13134 (36962)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 84.8¢	$51.56	$59.23	+$7.67	52% 90691-85227 (175918)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 79.6¢	$46.51	$58.46	+$11.95	61% 95305-60157 (155462)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 85.9¢	$47.25	$55	+$7.75	62% 43934-26954 (70888)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 77¢	$46.2	$60	+$13.8	65% 125617-67257 (192874)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$10.91	—	-$10.91	58% 60720-44332 (105052)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$21.55	—	-$21.55	64% 40270-23036 (63306)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$23.25	—	-$23.25	58% 51083-37220 (88303)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 96¢	$24	$25	+$1	56% 58267-44968 (103235)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$18.19	—	-$18.19	59% 6885-4832 (11717)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 87.8¢	$15.61	$17.79	+$2.18	65% 4108-2237 (6345)
SH Sharky6999<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$14.99	$15	+$0.02	98% 6869-164 (7033)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$7,829.67

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$0.16

Record

56%

3657-2838 (6495)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$490.18

Value

$526.3

PnL

+$36.12

Record

55%

15624-13020 (28644)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$461.48

Value

$469.47

PnL

+$16.36

Record

64%

58572-33180 (91752)

machinelearned

Invested

$287.27

Value

$465.46

PnL

+$178.2

Record

55%

8753-7219 (15972)

ply-pm0

Invested

$311.63

Value

$310.89

PnL

-$0.74

Record

50%

5387-5463 (10850)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$264.69

Value

$276.88

PnL

+$12.19

Record

57%

12598-9677 (22275)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$214.93

Value

$242.33

PnL

+$27.4

Record

54%

8135-6835 (14970)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$277.91

Value

$180.99

PnL

-$96.92

Record

58%

38081-27294 (65375)

Both legs:

Up$107.6859.5¢+$73.31

Down$170.2348.5¢-$170.23

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$172.62

Value

$231

PnL

+$59.93

Record

60%

12354-8199 (20553)

seeeeeeb

Invested

$213.3

Value

$270

PnL

+$56.7

Record

51%

740-704 (1444)

GoodFallen

Invested

$147.49

Value

$131

PnL

-$16.49

Record

56%

13880-11011 (24891)

spartacray

Invested

$102.41

Value

$132.56

PnL

+$30.15

Record

53%

27334-24284 (51618)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$88.05

Value

$88

PnL

-$0.05

Record

55%

7569-6206 (13775)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$38.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$23.28

Record

64%

23828-13134 (36962)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$51.56

Value

$59.23

PnL

+$7.67

Record

52%

90691-85227 (175918)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$46.51

Value

$58.46

PnL

+$11.95

Record

61%

95305-60157 (155462)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$47.25

Value

$55

PnL

+$7.75

Record

62%

43934-26954 (70888)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$46.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$13.8

Record

65%

125617-67257 (192874)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.91

Value

—

PnL

-$10.91

Record

58%

60720-44332 (105052)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.55

Value

—

PnL

-$21.55

Record

64%

40270-23036 (63306)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.25

Value

—

PnL

-$23.25

Record

58%

51083-37220 (88303)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$25

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

58267-44968 (103235)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.19

Value

—

PnL

-$18.19

Record

59%

6885-4832 (11717)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$15.61

Value

$17.79

PnL

+$2.18

Record

65%

4108-2237 (6345)

Sharky6999<$100

Invested

$14.99

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

98%

6869-164 (7033)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 31 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbdb2c493...24e6f9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793434500

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $7.8K

+$0.16

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $526.3

+$36.12

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $469.47

+$16.36

machinelearned

Up — $465.46

+$178.2

ply-pm0

Up — $310.89

-$0.74

FairValueMachine

Up — $276.88

+$12.19

sfkjbsr457

Up — $242.33

+$27.4

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$96.92

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $231

+$59.93

seeeeeeb

Up — $270

+$56.7

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