Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$270.19

Smart Money Signal

27 of 35 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares3,925

Combined PnL+$485.72

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares903

Combined PnL-$215.53

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.3¢	$710.99	$723	+$12.01	93% 23873-1792 (25665)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$592.11	$592.7	+$0.59	59% 62419-43575 (105994)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 84.9¢	$464.84	$488.38	+$23.55	64% 58572-33180 (91752)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 59¢	$250.64	$425.12	+$174.47	58% 38081-27294 (65375)
machinelearned	Upavg 67.5¢	$158.96	$232.89	+$73.93	55% 8753-7219 (15972)
MO mo-money	Upavg 78¢	$172.8	$221.48	+$48.68	55% 50652-41257 (91909)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 80.7¢	$176.36	$185.94	+$9.58	54% 8135-6835 (14970)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 79.5¢	$150.5	$175.42	+$24.92	50% 5387-5463 (10850)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 45.9¢	$128.19	$114	-$14.19	57% 8076-6209 (14285)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$68.45	—	-$68.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$59.74	$114	+$54.26
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 41.6¢	$161.75	—	-$125.26	48% 23453-25767 (49220)
BO bosona	Upavg 96¢	$96	$100	+$4	55% 49831-40052 (89883)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 70.4¢	$89.47	$107.08	+$17.61	56% 13880-11011 (24891)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 75.7¢	$64.54	$85.14	+$20.6	53% 27334-24284 (51618)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$84.43	—	-$84.43	58% 51083-37220 (88303)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$74.4	$95.5	+$21.1	60% 12354-8199 (20553)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100	Upavg 74.5¢	$83.52	$63.7	-$19.82	55% 15624-13020 (28644)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324<$100	Upavg 97¢	$56.21	$57.95	+$1.74	51% 880-852 (1732)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 74.5¢	$41.11	$55.2	+$14.09	56% 58267-44968 (103235)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 94.7¢	$51.99	$49.41	-$2.58	55% 7569-6206 (13775)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 96¢	$42.39	$44.14	+$1.75	61% 95305-60157 (155462)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100	Upavg 98.8¢	$41.48	$42	+$0.52	58% 1339-973 (2312)
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e<$100	Upavg 98.8¢	$41.48	$42	+$0.52	54% 1615-1372 (2987)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 98¢	$19.6	$20	+$0.4	65% 4108-2237 (6345)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 73.7¢	$24.76	$33.61	+$8.85	66% 126252-65031 (191283)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 59.4¢	$21.71	$32.26	+$10.55	59% 6885-4832 (11717)

hoodquant

Invested

$710.99

Value

$723

PnL

+$12.01

Record

93%

23873-1792 (25665)

0x50f7

Invested

$592.11

Value

$592.7

PnL

+$0.59

Record

59%

62419-43575 (105994)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$464.84

Value

$488.38

PnL

+$23.55

Record

64%

58572-33180 (91752)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$250.64

Value

$425.12

PnL

+$174.47

Record

58%

38081-27294 (65375)

machinelearned

Invested

$158.96

Value

$232.89

PnL

+$73.93

Record

55%

8753-7219 (15972)

mo-money

Invested

$172.8

Value

$221.48

PnL

+$48.68

Record

55%

50652-41257 (91909)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$176.36

Value

$185.94

PnL

+$9.58

Record

54%

8135-6835 (14970)

ply-pm0

Invested

$150.5

Value

$175.42

PnL

+$24.92

Record

50%

5387-5463 (10850)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$128.19

Value

$114

PnL

-$14.19

Record

57%

8076-6209 (14285)

Both legs:

Down$68.4545.9¢-$68.45

Up$59.7452.4¢+$54.26

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$161.75

Value

—

PnL

-$125.26

Record

48%

23453-25767 (49220)

bosona

Invested

$96

Value

$100

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

49831-40052 (89883)

GoodFallen

Invested

$89.47

Value

$107.08

PnL

+$17.61

Record

56%

13880-11011 (24891)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$64.54

Value

$85.14

PnL

+$20.6

Record

53%

27334-24284 (51618)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$84.43

Value

—

PnL

-$84.43

Record

58%

51083-37220 (88303)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$74.4

Value

$95.5

PnL

+$21.1

Record

60%

12354-8199 (20553)

dangerously-skip-permissions<$100

Invested

$83.52

Value

$63.7

PnL

-$19.82

Record

55%

15624-13020 (28644)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324<$100

Invested

$56.21

Value

$57.95

PnL

+$1.74

Record

51%

880-852 (1732)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$41.11

Value

$55.2

PnL

+$14.09

Record

56%

58267-44968 (103235)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$51.99

Value

$49.41

PnL

-$2.58

Record

55%

7569-6206 (13775)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$42.39

Value

$44.14

PnL

+$1.75

Record

61%

95305-60157 (155462)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100

Invested

$41.48

Value

$42

PnL

+$0.52

Record

58%

1339-973 (2312)

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e<$100

Invested

$41.48

Value

$42

PnL

+$0.52

Record

54%

1615-1372 (2987)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.4

Record

65%

4108-2237 (6345)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$24.76

Value

$33.61

PnL

+$8.85

Record

66%

126252-65031 (191283)

13897651<$100

Invested

$21.71

Value

$32.26

PnL

+$10.55

Record

59%

6885-4832 (11717)

Smart Money Signal

27 of 35 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9444604b...20f5a7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793431500

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $723

+$12.01

0x50f7

Up — $592.7

+$0.59

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $488.38

+$23.55

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $425.12

+$174.47

machinelearned

Up — $232.89

+$73.93

mo-money

Up — $221.48

+$48.68

sfkjbsr457

Up — $185.94

+$9.58

ply-pm0

Up — $175.42

+$24.92

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$14.19

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Down — $0

-$125.26

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