Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$122.54

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,607

Combined PnL+$306.78

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares781

Combined PnL-$184.24

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 70.6¢	$211.66	$300	+$88.34	48% 23453-25767 (49220)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$262.45	$210.89	-$51.56	55% 15624-13020 (28644)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$150.92	$210.89	+$59.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.5¢	$111.53	—	-$111.53
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 80.2¢	$220.72	$203.87	-$16.85	50% 5387-5463 (10850)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 82.2¢	$206.5	$251.23	+$44.73	58% 60720-44332 (105052)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 45¢	$147.4	$75	-$72.4	57% 8076-6209 (14285)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$108.45	—	-$108.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.9¢	$38.95	$75	+$36.05
SP spartacray	Downavg 75.7¢	$121.87	$160.96	+$39.09	53% 27334-24284 (51618)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$104.61	$97.11	-$7.05	60% 12354-8199 (20553)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$67.21	$97.11	+$29.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$35.98	—	-$36.95
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$91.93	$59.1	-$3.73	64% 58572-33180 (91752)
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.4¢	$32.78	—	-$32.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.4¢	$39.23	$59.1	+$29.05
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$92.24	$54.99	-$37.24	56% 13880-11011 (24891)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.8¢	$37.29	$54.99	+$17.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$54.94	—	-$54.94
SF sfkjbsr457<$100	Downavg 87¢	$81.85	$60.48	-$21.37	54% 8135-6835 (14970)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 26.6¢	$77.6	—	-$77.6	55% 50652-41257 (91909)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 11.5¢	$31.1	—	-$31.1	55% 49831-40052 (89883)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 51¢	$56.21	$110.22	+$54.01	57% 10432-7822 (18254)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 66¢	$58.08	$88	+$29.92	55% 7569-6206 (13775)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 85¢	$49.66	$58.42	+$8.76	64% 40270-23036 (63306)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 29.9¢	$51.96	—	-$51.96	57% 12598-9677 (22275)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 85.4¢	$45.47	$53.21	+$7.75	64% 23828-13134 (36962)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$39.75	$50	+$10.25	55% 8753-7219 (15972)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 91¢	$45.5	$50	+$4.5	56% 58267-44968 (103235)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 66¢	$39.6	$60	+$20.4	65% 125617-67257 (192874)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96.7¢	$41.6	$43	+$1.4	61% 95305-60157 (155462)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$28.94	$40.42	+$11.48	66% 126252-65031 (191283)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$31.4	$40	+$8.6	55% 23993-19391 (43384)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$18.86	$31.63	+$12.78	58% 38081-27294 (65375)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$11.37	—	-$11.37	59% 6885-4832 (11717)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$211.66

Value

$300

PnL

+$88.34

Record

48%

23453-25767 (49220)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$262.45

Value

$210.89

PnL

-$51.56

Record

55%

15624-13020 (28644)

Both legs:

Down$150.9271.6¢+$59.97

Up$111.5333.5¢-$111.53

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$220.72

Value

$203.87

PnL

-$16.85

Record

50%

5387-5463 (10850)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$206.5

Value

$251.23

PnL

+$44.73

Record

58%

60720-44332 (105052)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$147.4

Value

$75

PnL

-$72.4

Record

57%

8076-6209 (14285)

Both legs:

Up$108.4545¢-$108.45

Down$38.9551.9¢+$36.05

spartacray

Down

Invested

$121.87

Value

$160.96

PnL

+$39.09

Record

53%

27334-24284 (51618)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.61

Value

$97.11

PnL

-$7.05

Record

60%

12354-8199 (20553)

Both legs:

Down$67.2169.2¢+$29.9

Up$35.9828.3¢-$36.95

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$91.93

Value

$59.1

PnL

-$3.73

Record

64%

58572-33180 (91752)

Both legs:

Up$32.7812.4¢-$32.78

Down$39.2366.4¢+$29.05

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$92.24

Value

$54.99

PnL

-$37.24

Record

56%

13880-11011 (24891)

Both legs:

Down$37.2967.8¢+$17.7

Up$54.9429.5¢-$54.94

sfkjbsr457<$100

Down

Invested

$81.85

Value

$60.48

PnL

-$21.37

Record

54%

8135-6835 (14970)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$77.6

Value

—

PnL

-$77.6

Record

55%

50652-41257 (91909)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$31.1

Value

—

PnL

-$31.1

Record

55%

49831-40052 (89883)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$56.21

Value

$110.22

PnL

+$54.01

Record

57%

10432-7822 (18254)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$58.08

Value

$88

PnL

+$29.92

Record

55%

7569-6206 (13775)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$49.66

Value

$58.42

PnL

+$8.76

Record

64%

40270-23036 (63306)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$51.96

Value

—

PnL

-$51.96

Record

57%

12598-9677 (22275)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$45.47

Value

$53.21

PnL

+$7.75

Record

64%

23828-13134 (36962)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$39.75

Value

$50

PnL

+$10.25

Record

55%

8753-7219 (15972)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$45.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$4.5

Record

56%

58267-44968 (103235)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$39.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$20.4

Record

65%

125617-67257 (192874)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$41.6

Value

$43

PnL

+$1.4

Record

61%

95305-60157 (155462)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$28.94

Value

$40.42

PnL

+$11.48

Record

66%

126252-65031 (191283)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$31.4

Value

$40

PnL

+$8.6

Record

55%

23993-19391 (43384)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$18.86

Value

$31.63

PnL

+$12.78

Record

58%

38081-27294 (65375)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$11.37

Value

—

PnL

-$11.37

Record

59%

6885-4832 (11717)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe017832a...23cba3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793431200

Traders in this Market

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $300

+$88.34

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$51.56

ply-pm0

Down — $203.87

-$16.85

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $251.23

+$44.73

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$72.4

spartacray

Down — $160.96

+$39.09

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Down — $60.48

-$21.37

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