Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Up 79%
3 arb excluded
$4.9K
$129.94
Smart Money Signal
20 of 26 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$2.55 | 59% 62419-43575 (105994) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 98.8¢ | $504 | $500 | -$4 | 55% 50652-41257 (91909) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 89.2¢ | $336.87 | $293.42 | +$6.44 | 64% 58572-33180 (91752) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 72¢ | $203.35 | $206.04 | +$2.69 | 55% 15624-13020 (28644) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $176.83 | $173.77 | -$3.07 | 50% 5387-5463 (10850) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 95.4¢ | $167.96 | $167.68 | -$0.28 | 54% 8135-6835 (14970) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $97.79 | $88 | -$9.79 | 60% 12354-8199 (20553) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.7¢ | $40.59 | — | -$40.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65¢ | $57.2 | $88 | +$30.8 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $105.01 | $92.55 | -$12.46 | 56% 13880-11011 (24891) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.1¢ | $38.34 | — | -$38.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72¢ | $66.67 | $92.55 | +$25.88 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $76.1 | $60 | -$16.1 | 57% 12598-9677 (22275) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.7¢ | $34.7 | — | -$34.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69¢ | $41.4 | $60 | +$18.6 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.9¢ | $91 | $92 | +$1 | 93% 23873-1792 (25665) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $69.53 | $80.88 | +$11.35 | 53% 27334-24284 (51618) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 92.7¢ | $72.83 | $75 | +$2.17 | 55% 8753-7219 (15972) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 91¢ | $133.93 | $147.17 | +$13.25 | 48% 23453-25767 (49220) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 53.1¢ | $48.36 | $91.07 | +$42.71 | 59% 6885-4832 (11717) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $48.63 | $78.44 | +$29.81 | 58% 38081-27294 (65375) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 82.2¢ | $62.19 | $75.63 | +$13.44 | 55% 7569-6206 (13775) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $25.28 | $52 | +$26.72 | 57% 8076-6209 (14285) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.3¢ | $14.43 | — | -$14.43 | 46% 38281-45205 (83486) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 86.9¢ | $16.1 | $18.53 | +$2.43 | 65% 4108-2237 (6345) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 55% 49831-40052 (89883) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.1¢ | $9.3 | — | -$9.3 | 49% 78145-81653 (159798) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $24 | $30 | +$6 | 64% 23828-13134 (36962) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $18.96 | $24 | +$5.04 | 51% 17179-16685 (33864) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $23.04 | $24 | +$0.96 | 61% 95305-60157 (155462) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $14.56 | $19.8 | +$5.24 | 66% 126252-65031 (191283) |
Invested
$2,545.97
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$2.55
Record
59%
62419-43575 (105994)
Invested
$504
Value
$500
PnL
-$4
Record
55%
50652-41257 (91909)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$336.87
Value
$293.42
PnL
+$6.44
Record
64%
58572-33180 (91752)
Invested
$203.35
Value
$206.04
PnL
+$2.69
Record
55%
15624-13020 (28644)
Invested
$176.83
Value
$173.77
PnL
-$3.07
Record
50%
5387-5463 (10850)
Invested
$167.96
Value
$167.68
PnL
-$0.28
Record
54%
8135-6835 (14970)
Invested
$97.79
Value
$88
PnL
-$9.79
Record
60%
12354-8199 (20553)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.01
Value
$92.55
PnL
-$12.46
Record
56%
13880-11011 (24891)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$76.1
Value
$60
PnL
-$16.1
Record
57%
12598-9677 (22275)
Both legs:
Invested
$91
Value
$92
PnL
+$1
Record
93%
23873-1792 (25665)
Invested
$69.53
Value
$80.88
PnL
+$11.35
Record
53%
27334-24284 (51618)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$72.83
Value
$75
PnL
+$2.17
Record
55%
8753-7219 (15972)
Invested
$133.93
Value
$147.17
PnL
+$13.25
Record
48%
23453-25767 (49220)
Invested
$48.36
Value
$91.07
PnL
+$42.71
Record
59%
6885-4832 (11717)
Invested
$48.63
Value
$78.44
PnL
+$29.81
Record
58%
38081-27294 (65375)
Invested
$62.19
Value
$75.63
PnL
+$13.44
Record
55%
7569-6206 (13775)
Invested
$25.28
Value
$52
PnL
+$26.72
Record
57%
8076-6209 (14285)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$14.43
Value
—
PnL
-$14.43
Record
46%
38281-45205 (83486)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$16.1
Value
$18.53
PnL
+$2.43
Record
65%
4108-2237 (6345)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
55%
49831-40052 (89883)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$9.3
Value
—
PnL
-$9.3
Record
49%
78145-81653 (159798)
Invested
$24
Value
$30
PnL
+$6
Record
64%
23828-13134 (36962)
Invested
$18.96
Value
$24
PnL
+$5.04
Record
51%
17179-16685 (33864)
Invested
$23.04
Value
$24
PnL
+$0.96
Record
61%
95305-60157 (155462)
Invested
$14.56
Value
$19.8
PnL
+$5.24
Record
66%
126252-65031 (191283)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $2.5K
mo-money
Up — $500
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $293.42
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $206.04
ply-pm0
Up — $173.77
sfkjbsr457
Up — $167.68
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $92