Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 66%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$203.6

Smart Money Signal

20 of 30 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,795

Combined PnL+$460.22

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,462

Combined PnL-$256.63

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rock.San	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$1.89	89% 11982-1415 (13397)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 77.4¢	$464.22	$600	+$135.78	48% 23429-25738 (49167)
MO mo-money	Upavg 92.4¢	$363.35	$390.42	+$27.07	55% 50645-41244 (91889)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 86.6¢	$316.43	$342.41	+$25.97	64% 58572-33178 (91750)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$270.77	$207	-$63.77	57% 8058-6195 (14253)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.7¢	$151.74	—	-$151.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$119.03	$207	+$87.97
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 59.2¢	$261.4	$441.33	+$179.93	58% 38071-27285 (65356)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 75.6¢	$199.39	$210	+$10.61	55% 15615-13009 (28624)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 81.9¢	$159.18	$152.16	-$7.02	54% 8130-6820 (14950)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 76.8¢	$128.73	$145.5	+$16.77	51% 17178-16683 (33861)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$74	$80	+$6	53% 27286-24253 (51539)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 53.9¢	$47.6	$70	+$22.4	57% 10427-7820 (18247)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 79.4¢	$64.53	$68.88	+$4.35	66% 126202-65005 (191207)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 82.6¢	$83.8	$64	-$19.8	50% 5376-5454 (10830)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 87.5¢	$59.77	$68.3	+$8.53	64% 40258-23030 (63288)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 62¢	$43.2	$60	+$20.8	65% 125573-67230 (192803)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Downavg 26.5¢	$87.67	—	-$87.67	56% 13871-11000 (24871)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$51.69	$57.81	+$6.12	59% 6873-4823 (11696)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$31.35	$57.81	+$26.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$20.34	—	-$20.34
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 73.9¢	$74.47	$100.81	+$26.34	55% 7558-6197 (13755)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 77.6¢	$40.78	$34.46	-$6.32	52% 90652-85212 (175864)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$36.95	$36.29	+$14	64% 23759-13098 (36857)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 94¢	$36.6	$30	-$6.6	57% 12588-9667 (22255)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$55.72	—	-$54.27	60% 12347-8186 (20533)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 40.7¢	$20.58	—	-$20.58	34% 18905-35897 (54802)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 7.4¢	$20.84	—	-$20.84	46% 38260-45186 (83446)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Downavg 13¢	$21.32	—	-$21.32	51% 735-702 (1437)

Rock.San

Invested

$1,890.13

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.89

Record

89%

11982-1415 (13397)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$464.22

Value

$600

PnL

+$135.78

Record

48%

23429-25738 (49167)

mo-money

Invested

$363.35

Value

$390.42

PnL

+$27.07

Record

55%

50645-41244 (91889)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$316.43

Value

$342.41

PnL

+$25.97

Record

64%

58572-33178 (91750)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$270.77

Value

$207

PnL

-$63.77

Record

57%

8058-6195 (14253)

Both legs:

Down$151.7441.7¢-$151.74

Up$119.0357.5¢+$87.97

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$261.4

Value

$441.33

PnL

+$179.93

Record

58%

38071-27285 (65356)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$199.39

Value

$210

PnL

+$10.61

Record

55%

15615-13009 (28624)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$159.18

Value

$152.16

PnL

-$7.02

Record

54%

8130-6820 (14950)

gansinimen

Invested

$128.73

Value

$145.5

PnL

+$16.77

Record

51%

17178-16683 (33861)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$74

Value

$80

PnL

+$6

Record

53%

27286-24253 (51539)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$47.6

Value

$70

PnL

+$22.4

Record

57%

10427-7820 (18247)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$64.53

Value

$68.88

PnL

+$4.35

Record

66%

126202-65005 (191207)

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$83.8

Value

$64

PnL

-$19.8

Record

50%

5376-5454 (10830)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$59.77

Value

$68.3

PnL

+$8.53

Record

64%

40258-23030 (63288)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$43.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$20.8

Record

65%

125573-67230 (192803)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$87.67

Value

—

PnL

-$87.67

Record

56%

13871-11000 (24871)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$51.69

Value

$57.81

PnL

+$6.12

Record

59%

6873-4823 (11696)

Both legs:

Up$31.3554.2¢+$26.46

Down$20.3440.2¢-$20.34

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$74.47

Value

$100.81

PnL

+$26.34

Record

55%

7558-6197 (13755)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$40.78

Value

$34.46

PnL

-$6.32

Record

52%

90652-85212 (175864)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$36.95

Value

$36.29

PnL

+$14

Record

64%

23759-13098 (36857)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$36.6

Value

$30

PnL

-$6.6

Record

57%

12588-9667 (22255)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$55.72

Value

—

PnL

-$54.27

Record

60%

12347-8186 (20533)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.58

Value

—

PnL

-$20.58

Record

34%

18905-35897 (54802)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.84

Value

—

PnL

-$20.84

Record

46%

38260-45186 (83446)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.32

Value

—

PnL

-$21.32

Record

51%

735-702 (1437)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 30 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1d5fbd46...5b2576

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793430300

Traders in this Market

Rock.San

Up — $1.9K

+$1.89

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $600

+$135.78

mo-money

Up — $390.42

+$27.07

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $342.41

+$25.97

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$63.77

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $441.33

+$179.93

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $210

+$10.61

sfkjbsr457

Up — $152.16

-$7.02

gansinimen

Up — $145.5

+$16.77

spartacray

Up — $80

+$6

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