Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$68.94

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 29 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,940

Combined PnL+$205.34

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,541

Combined PnL-$136.4

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$420.6	$428.98	+$8.38	93% 23850-1790 (25640)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 89.1¢	$417.34	$363.28	+$4.74	64% 58572-33178 (91750)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 66.4¢	$394.93	$322.1	-$72.83	55% 15615-13009 (28624)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 56.5¢	$248.67	$339.44	+$90.77	56% 13871-11000 (24871)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 57.7¢	$207.05	$276.05	+$69.01	57% 12588-9667 (22255)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 85.9¢	$225.94	$212.37	-$13.57	50% 5376-5454 (10830)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 79¢	$165.76	$209.84	+$44.08	48% 23429-25738 (49167)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 30.1¢	$147.55	$91.84	-$55.71	55% 50645-41244 (91889)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.4¢	$34.33	$91.84	+$57.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.1¢	$113.22	—	-$113.22
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 23.5¢	$211.28	$103.7	-$107.58	55% 8745-7207 (15952)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.3¢	$76.03	$103.7	+$27.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.5¢	$135.25	—	-$135.25
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 5.2¢	$64.61	$83.86	+$19.24	55% 49831-40051 (89882)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$25.16	$83.86	+$58.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 5.2¢	$39.46	—	-$39.46
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 91¢	$161.92	$128.27	-$33.65	60% 12347-8186 (20533)
ohioism	Downavg 76.4¢	$97.26	$127.29	+$30.02	64% 40258-23030 (63288)
SP spartacray	Downavg 67.8¢	$111.85	$100	-$11.86	53% 27286-24253 (51539)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 52.4¢	$96.08	$183.23	+$87.15	57% 8058-6195 (14253)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 86.8¢	$107.47	$84.34	-$23.13	54% 8130-6820 (14950)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 79¢	$48.6	$60	+$11.4	65% 125573-67230 (192803)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 54¢	$68.29	$72.92	+$4.63	55% 7558-6197 (13755)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54¢	$39.36	$72.92	+$33.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$28.92	—	-$28.92
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 61.2¢	$59.37	—	-$59.37	34% 18905-35897 (54802)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 1.8¢	$8.22	—	-$8.22	77% 9482-2876 (12358)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$50.42	$60.17	+$9.75	66% 126202-65005 (191207)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 91¢	$32.76	$36	+$3.24	56% 58251-44962 (103213)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 5.1¢	$12.67	—	-$12.67	46% 38260-45186 (83446)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 4.9¢	$8.56	—	-$8.56	66% 112305-58874 (171179)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 3.3¢	$6.3	—	-$6.3	49% 78132-81641 (159773)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$11.2	—	-$11.2	55% 23992-19378 (43370)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$420.6

Value

$428.98

PnL

+$8.38

Record

93%

23850-1790 (25640)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$417.34

Value

$363.28

PnL

+$4.74

Record

64%

58572-33178 (91750)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$394.93

Value

$322.1

PnL

-$72.83

Record

55%

15615-13009 (28624)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$248.67

Value

$339.44

PnL

+$90.77

Record

56%

13871-11000 (24871)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$207.05

Value

$276.05

PnL

+$69.01

Record

57%

12588-9667 (22255)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$225.94

Value

$212.37

PnL

-$13.57

Record

50%

5376-5454 (10830)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$165.76

Value

$209.84

PnL

+$44.08

Record

48%

23429-25738 (49167)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$147.55

Value

$91.84

PnL

-$55.71

Record

55%

50645-41244 (91889)

Both legs:

Down$34.3337.4¢+$57.51

Up$113.2230.1¢-$113.22

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$211.28

Value

$103.7

PnL

-$107.58

Record

55%

8745-7207 (15952)

Both legs:

Down$76.0373.3¢+$27.67

Up$135.2523.5¢-$135.25

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$64.61

Value

$83.86

PnL

+$19.24

Record

55%

49831-40051 (89882)

Both legs:

Down$25.1630¢+$58.7

Up$39.465.2¢-$39.46

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$161.92

Value

$128.27

PnL

-$33.65

Record

60%

12347-8186 (20533)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$97.26

Value

$127.29

PnL

+$30.02

Record

64%

40258-23030 (63288)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$111.85

Value

$100

PnL

-$11.86

Record

53%

27286-24253 (51539)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$96.08

Value

$183.23

PnL

+$87.15

Record

57%

8058-6195 (14253)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$107.47

Value

$84.34

PnL

-$23.13

Record

54%

8130-6820 (14950)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$48.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$11.4

Record

65%

125573-67230 (192803)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$68.29

Value

$72.92

PnL

+$4.63

Record

55%

7558-6197 (13755)

Both legs:

Down$39.3654¢+$33.56

Up$28.9257.3¢-$28.92

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$59.37

Value

—

PnL

-$59.37

Record

34%

18905-35897 (54802)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$8.22

Value

—

PnL

-$8.22

Record

77%

9482-2876 (12358)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$50.42

Value

$60.17

PnL

+$9.75

Record

66%

126202-65005 (191207)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$32.76

Value

$36

PnL

+$3.24

Record

56%

58251-44962 (103213)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$12.67

Value

—

PnL

-$12.67

Record

46%

38260-45186 (83446)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$8.56

Value

—

PnL

-$8.56

Record

66%

112305-58874 (171179)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

—

PnL

-$6.3

Record

49%

78132-81641 (159773)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

—

PnL

-$11.2

Record

55%

23992-19378 (43370)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 29 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x22eebf38...a31b8e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793430000

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $428.98

+$8.38

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $363.28

+$4.74

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $322.1

-$72.83

GoodFallen

Down — $339.44

+$90.77

FairValueMachine

Down — $276.05

+$69.01

ply-pm0

Down — $212.37

-$13.57

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $209.84

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

bosona

Arbitrage — excluded