Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Up 82%
1 arb excluded
$10.6K
-$264.53
Smart Money Signal
29 of 35 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$22.39 | 59% 62402-43564 (105966) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.31 | 93% 23850-1790 (25640) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 99¢ | $876.15 | $880.79 | +$4.64 | 55% 50645-41244 (91889) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 88.8¢ | $768.88 | $752.56 | -$16.31 | 50% 5376-5454 (10830) |
AL almach | Upavg 98¢ | $669.17 | $673.25 | +$4.09 | 55% 48556-40105 (88661) |
TE TelawinCTR | Downavg 47.6¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 50% 346-340 (686) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 98.7¢ | $455.46 | $448.41 | -$7.05 | 46% 38260-45186 (83446) |
BO bosona | Upavg 99.2¢ | $441.09 | $442.73 | +$1.64 | 55% 49831-40051 (89882) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $299.66 | $337.6 | +$37.94 | 54% 8130-6820 (14950) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 70.2¢ | $332.97 | $337.53 | +$4.56 | 55% 15615-13009 (28624) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.2¢ | $237.01 | $337.53 | +$100.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31¢ | $95.96 | — | -$95.96 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 58.8¢ | $277.54 | $365.43 | +$87.89 | 55% 8745-7207 (15952) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 98¢ | $359.88 | $301 | -$55.89 | 48% 23429-25738 (49167) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 98¢ | $374.72 | $367.18 | -$7.54 | 49% 78132-81641 (159773) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 78.1¢ | $265.09 | $287.23 | +$22.15 | 56% 13871-11000 (24871) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 63.2¢ | $186.82 | $219.98 | +$34.72 | 55% 7558-6197 (13755) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 75.1¢ | $190.42 | $238.9 | +$48.48 | 57% 12588-9667 (22255) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 98¢ | $119.15 | $121.58 | +$2.43 | 64% 58572-33178 (91750) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 80¢ | $120 | $123 | +$3 | 65% 125573-67230 (192803) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 79¢ | $79 | $100 | +$21 | 58% 60707-44323 (105030) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $47 | — | -$47 | 34% 18905-35897 (54802) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $54.36 | $69.85 | +$15.49 | 61% 95257-60134 (155391) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 74.2¢ | $44.85 | $60.48 | +$15.63 | 66% 126202-65005 (191207) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $38.18 | $37.55 | +$13.39 | 64% 23759-13098 (36857) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $31.87 | $35.03 | +$3.16 | 52% 90652-85212 (175864) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $24.98 | $38.43 | +$13.45 | 60% 12347-8186 (20533) |
Invested
$2,985.62
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$22.39
Record
59%
62402-43564 (105966)
Invested
$1,218.69
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.31
Record
93%
23850-1790 (25640)
Invested
$876.15
Value
$880.79
PnL
+$4.64
Record
55%
50645-41244 (91889)
Invested
$768.88
Value
$752.56
PnL
-$16.31
Record
50%
5376-5454 (10830)
Invested
$669.17
Value
$673.25
PnL
+$4.09
Record
55%
48556-40105 (88661)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
50%
346-340 (686)
pspspsps5Invested
$455.46
Value
$448.41
PnL
-$7.05
Record
46%
38260-45186 (83446)
Invested
$441.09
Value
$442.73
PnL
+$1.64
Record
55%
49831-40051 (89882)
Invested
$299.66
Value
$337.6
PnL
+$37.94
Record
54%
8130-6820 (14950)
Invested
$332.97
Value
$337.53
PnL
+$4.56
Record
55%
15615-13009 (28624)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$277.54
Value
$365.43
PnL
+$87.89
Record
55%
8745-7207 (15952)
Invested
$359.88
Value
$301
PnL
-$55.89
Record
48%
23429-25738 (49167)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$374.72
Value
$367.18
PnL
-$7.54
Record
49%
78132-81641 (159773)
Invested
$265.09
Value
$287.23
PnL
+$22.15
Record
56%
13871-11000 (24871)
Invested
$186.82
Value
$219.98
PnL
+$34.72
Record
55%
7558-6197 (13755)
FairValueMachineInvested
$190.42
Value
$238.9
PnL
+$48.48
Record
57%
12588-9667 (22255)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$119.15
Value
$121.58
PnL
+$2.43
Record
64%
58572-33178 (91750)
Invested
$120
Value
$123
PnL
+$3
Record
65%
125573-67230 (192803)
Invested
$79
Value
$100
PnL
+$21
Record
58%
60707-44323 (105030)
Invested
$47
Value
—
PnL
-$47
Record
34%
18905-35897 (54802)
Invested
$54.36
Value
$69.85
PnL
+$15.49
Record
61%
95257-60134 (155391)
Invested
$44.85
Value
$60.48
PnL
+$15.63
Record
66%
126202-65005 (191207)
Invested
$38.18
Value
$37.55
PnL
+$13.39
Record
64%
23759-13098 (36857)
Invested
$31.87
Value
$35.03
PnL
+$3.16
Record
52%
90652-85212 (175864)
Invested
$24.98
Value
$38.43
PnL
+$13.45
Record
60%
12347-8186 (20533)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
mo-money
Up — $880.79
ply-pm0
Up — $752.56
almach
Up — $673.25
Telawin
CTRDown — $0
pspspsps5
Up — $448.41
bosona
Up — $442.73
sfkjbsr457
Up — $337.6
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded