Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$220.08

Smart Money Signal

21 of 28 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,057

Combined PnL+$135.33

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,347

Combined PnL-$355.41

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mo-money	Upavg 99¢	$610.98	$500	-$110.98	55% 50645-41244 (91889)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 69.9¢	$307.45	$334.21	+$26.76	55% 15615-13009 (28624)
ohioism	Upavg 91.2¢	$274.5	$301.02	+$26.52	64% 40258-23030 (63288)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 76.7¢	$254.51	$258.12	+$3.61	54% 8130-6820 (14950)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 40.1¢	$209.55	$153.73	-$55.82	57% 8058-6195 (14253)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.1¢	$129.77	—	-$129.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$79.78	$153.73	+$73.95
FairValueMachine	Upavg 65.7¢	$187.4	$269.99	+$82.6	57% 12588-9667 (22255)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 63.6¢	$193.72	$232.2	+$38.48	56% 13871-11000 (24871)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 25.1¢	$187.58	$89.48	-$98.1	55% 8745-7207 (15952)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.1¢	$121.77	—	-$121.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.5¢	$65.8	$89.48	+$23.68
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Downavg 31.7¢	$107.13	—	-$107.13	63% 1769-1030 (2799)
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 99¢	$133.65	$135	+$1.35	51% 735-702 (1437)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 82.7¢	$124.5	$150.48	+$25.98	56% 58251-44962 (103213)
AL almach	Upavg 99¢	$137.99	$117.77	-$20.22	55% 48556-40105 (88661)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$94.94	$108.79	+$13.85	59% 6873-4823 (11696)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$60.56	$108.79	+$48.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.3¢	$34.38	—	-$34.38
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$82.24	—	-$82.24	34% 18905-35897 (54802)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$99.19	$91	-$8.19	52% 90652-85212 (175864)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 81¢	$85.96	$104.52	+$18.56	55% 7558-6197 (13755)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 97.2¢	$98.85	$88	-$10.17	61% 95257-60134 (155391)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 19.5¢	$117	—	-$117	48% 23429-25738 (49167)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 65¢	$107.89	$165.98	+$58.09	58% 38071-27285 (65356)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 93.6¢	$114.4	$82.24	-$32.16	50% 5376-5454 (10830)
RO Rock.San<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$36.9	$36.94	+$0.04	89% 11982-1415 (13397)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 76.2¢	$32.43	$35.48	+$7.75	64% 23759-13098 (36857)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 71¢	$42.6	$60	+$17.4	65% 125573-67230 (192803)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 64¢	$30.75	$27.53	+$0.18	60% 12347-8186 (20533)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 72.9¢	$22.45	$21.46	-$0.99	53% 27286-24253 (51539)

mo-money

Invested

$610.98

Value

$500

PnL

-$110.98

Record

55%

50645-41244 (91889)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$307.45

Value

$334.21

PnL

+$26.76

Record

55%

15615-13009 (28624)

ohioism

Invested

$274.5

Value

$301.02

PnL

+$26.52

Record

64%

40258-23030 (63288)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$254.51

Value

$258.12

PnL

+$3.61

Record

54%

8130-6820 (14950)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$209.55

Value

$153.73

PnL

-$55.82

Record

57%

8058-6195 (14253)

Both legs:

Down$129.7740.1¢-$129.77

Up$79.7851.9¢+$73.95

FairValueMachine

Invested

$187.4

Value

$269.99

PnL

+$82.6

Record

57%

12588-9667 (22255)

GoodFallen

Invested

$193.72

Value

$232.2

PnL

+$38.48

Record

56%

13871-11000 (24871)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$187.58

Value

$89.48

PnL

-$98.1

Record

55%

8745-7207 (15952)

Both legs:

Down$121.7725.1¢-$121.77

Up$65.873.5¢+$23.68

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Down

Invested

$107.13

Value

—

PnL

-$107.13

Record

63%

1769-1030 (2799)

seeeeeeb

Invested

$133.65

Value

$135

PnL

+$1.35

Record

51%

735-702 (1437)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$124.5

Value

$150.48

PnL

+$25.98

Record

56%

58251-44962 (103213)

almach

Invested

$137.99

Value

$117.77

PnL

-$20.22

Record

55%

48556-40105 (88661)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$94.94

Value

$108.79

PnL

+$13.85

Record

59%

6873-4823 (11696)

Both legs:

Up$60.5655.7¢+$48.23

Down$34.3844.3¢-$34.38

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$82.24

Value

—

PnL

-$82.24

Record

34%

18905-35897 (54802)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$99.19

Value

$91

PnL

-$8.19

Record

52%

90652-85212 (175864)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$85.96

Value

$104.52

PnL

+$18.56

Record

55%

7558-6197 (13755)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$98.85

Value

$88

PnL

-$10.17

Record

61%

95257-60134 (155391)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$117

Value

—

PnL

-$117

Record

48%

23429-25738 (49167)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$107.89

Value

$165.98

PnL

+$58.09

Record

58%

38071-27285 (65356)

ply-pm0

Invested

$114.4

Value

$82.24

PnL

-$32.16

Record

50%

5376-5454 (10830)

Rock.San<$100

Invested

$36.9

Value

$36.94

PnL

+$0.04

Record

89%

11982-1415 (13397)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$32.43

Value

$35.48

PnL

+$7.75

Record

64%

23759-13098 (36857)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$42.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$17.4

Record

65%

125573-67230 (192803)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$30.75

Value

$27.53

PnL

+$0.18

Record

60%

12347-8186 (20533)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$22.45

Value

$21.46

PnL

-$0.99

Record

53%

27286-24253 (51539)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 28 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe738651c...348fe6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793428800

Traders in this Market

mo-money

Up — $500

-$110.98

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $334.21

+$26.76

ohioism

Up — $301.02

+$26.52

sfkjbsr457

Up — $258.12

+$3.61

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$55.82

FairValueMachine

Up — $269.99

+$82.6

GoodFallen

Up — $232.2

+$38.48

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$98.1

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

CTR

Down — $0

-$107.13

seeeeeeb

Up — $135

+$1.35

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