Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$6.6K

Smart Money Signal

21 of 24 top traders (88%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares9,618

Combined PnL+$7.0K

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$447.39

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Up	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$2.7K	56% 3656-2838 (6494)
└ Down leg	Down	—	—	$-4.1K
└ Up leg	Up	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$6.8K
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 44.8¢	$336.42	$503.83	+$167.42	55% 15615-13009 (28624)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 52¢	$354.87	—	-$354.87	50% 5376-5454 (10830)
pspspsps5	Upavg 19¢	$72.82	$362.17	+$289.35	46% 38260-45186 (83446)
BO bosona	Upavg 17.1¢	$357.37	$2.1K	+$1.7K	55% 49831-40051 (89882)
AL almach	Upavg 22.2¢	$456.04	$2.1K	+$1.6K	55% 48556-40105 (88661)
MO mo-money	Upavg 23.5¢	$470	$2.0K	+$1.5K	55% 50645-41244 (91889)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 14.9¢	$42.21	$283.42	+$241.21	49% 78132-81641 (159773)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 30.1¢	$120.37	$266.75	+$146.38	60% 12347-8186 (20533)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 43.8¢	$134.2	$179.99	+$45.79	56% 13871-11000 (24871)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 34.4¢	$54.62	$114.77	+$60.15	55% 8745-7207 (15952)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.4¢	$39.44	$114.77	+$75.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 6¢	$15.18	—	-$15.18
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 8.3¢	$81.08	$972.59	+$891.51	59% 62402-43564 (105966)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 43¢	$109.95	$132	+$22.05	57% 8058-6195 (14253)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 77.2¢	$138.69	$200.6	+$61.91	54% 8130-6820 (14950)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.2¢	$79.56	—	-$79.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$59.13	$200.6	+$141.47
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 18¢	$54	$300	+$246	48% 23429-25738 (49167)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 56.7¢	$88.03	$101.11	+$13.08	57% 12588-9667 (22255)
NIULAI4	Upavg 81.4¢	$88.7	$108.93	+$20.23	77% 9482-2876 (12358)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$57.45	—	-$57.45	34% 18905-35897 (54802)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 87.3¢	$59.07	$67.7	+$8.63	66% 126202-65005 (191207)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 71.8¢	$145.87	$31.68	-$110.79	55% 7558-6197 (13755)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.8¢	$142.2	—	-$142.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 10¢	$3.17	$31.68	+$31.41
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 75.8¢	$48	$63.29	+$15.29	65% 125573-67230 (192803)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 59¢	$35.07	—	-$35.07	59% 6873-4823 (11696)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 94.1¢	$26.76	$28.45	+$1.69	61% 95257-60134 (155391)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 93¢	$23.49	$25.26	+$1.77	58% 60707-44323 (105030)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 22.6¢	$5.13	$22.73	+$17.6	55% 23992-19378 (43370)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$7,978.84

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

56%

3656-2838 (6494)

Both legs:

Down——$-4.1K

Up$7,978.84—+$6.8K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$336.42

Value

$503.83

PnL

+$167.42

Record

55%

15615-13009 (28624)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$354.87

Value

—

PnL

-$354.87

Record

50%

5376-5454 (10830)

pspspsps5

Invested

$72.82

Value

$362.17

PnL

+$289.35

Record

46%

38260-45186 (83446)

bosona

Invested

$357.37

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

49831-40051 (89882)

almach

Invested

$456.04

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

55%

48556-40105 (88661)

mo-money

Invested

$470

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

55%

50645-41244 (91889)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$42.21

Value

$283.42

PnL

+$241.21

Record

49%

78132-81641 (159773)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$120.37

Value

$266.75

PnL

+$146.38

Record

60%

12347-8186 (20533)

GoodFallen

Invested

$134.2

Value

$179.99

PnL

+$45.79

Record

56%

13871-11000 (24871)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$54.62

Value

$114.77

PnL

+$60.15

Record

55%

8745-7207 (15952)

Both legs:

Up$39.4434.4¢+$75.33

Down$15.186¢-$15.18

0x50f7

Invested

$81.08

Value

$972.59

PnL

+$891.51

Record

59%

62402-43564 (105966)

wzbbb

Invested

$109.95

Value

$132

PnL

+$22.05

Record

57%

8058-6195 (14253)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$138.69

Value

$200.6

PnL

+$61.91

Record

54%

8130-6820 (14950)

Both legs:

Down$79.5677.2¢-$79.56

Up$59.1329.5¢+$141.47

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$54

Value

$300

PnL

+$246

Record

48%

23429-25738 (49167)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$88.03

Value

$101.11

PnL

+$13.08

Record

57%

12588-9667 (22255)

NIULAI4

Invested

$88.7

Value

$108.93

PnL

+$20.23

Record

77%

9482-2876 (12358)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.45

Value

—

PnL

-$57.45

Record

34%

18905-35897 (54802)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$59.07

Value

$67.7

PnL

+$8.63

Record

66%

126202-65005 (191207)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$145.87

Value

$31.68

PnL

-$110.79

Record

55%

7558-6197 (13755)

Both legs:

Down$142.271.8¢-$142.2

Up$3.1710¢+$31.41

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$63.29

PnL

+$15.29

Record

65%

125573-67230 (192803)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.07

Value

—

PnL

-$35.07

Record

59%

6873-4823 (11696)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$26.76

Value

$28.45

PnL

+$1.69

Record

61%

95257-60134 (155391)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$23.49

Value

$25.26

PnL

+$1.77

Record

58%

60707-44323 (105030)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$22.73

PnL

+$17.6

Record

55%

23992-19378 (43370)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 24 top traders (88%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6ec1456c...3781ef

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793428500

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.7K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $503.83

+$167.42

ply-pm0

CTR

Down — $0

-$354.87

pspspsps5

Up — $362.17

+$289.35

bosona

Up — $2.1K

+$1.7K

almach

Up — $2.1K

+$1.6K

mo-money

Up — $2.0K

+$1.5K

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $283.42

+$241.21

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $266.75

+$146.38

GoodFallen

Up — $179.99

+$45.79

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