Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$920.88

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,423

Combined PnL+$939.7

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares585

Combined PnL-$18.82

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 55.8¢	$777.06	$1.4K	+$615.41	58% 38054-27274 (65328)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 62.1¢	$593.05	$605.55	+$12.5	55% 15605-13002 (28607)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.1¢	$375.85	$605.55	+$229.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.6¢	$217.19	—	-$217.19
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 93¢	$437.25	$415.34	-$21.91	50% 5364-5445 (10809)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$292.97	$279.13	-$13.84	56% 13859-10996 (24855)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$171.38	$279.13	+$107.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$121.58	—	-$121.58
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 83.2¢	$217.46	$239.39	+$24.48	60% 12334-8178 (20512)
SP spartacray	Upavg 72.3¢	$168.66	$227.69	+$59.03	53% 27286-24253 (51539)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$174.37	$154.99	-$19.38	57% 12576-9663 (22239)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.5¢	$106.19	$154.99	+$48.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$68.18	—	-$68.18
LI Little-big	Upavg 51¢	$153.68	$250.48	+$96.8	34% 18894-35886 (54780)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$132.42	$161.62	+$29.2	54% 8118-6811 (14929)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.7¢	$107.83	$161.62	+$53.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.1¢	$24.59	—	-$24.59
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 70.4¢	$142.88	$191.38	+$48.49	59% 23290-16364 (39654)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 73.5¢	$128.3	$118.66	-$9.64	55% 7547-6187 (13734)
ohioism	Upavg 93¢	$139.5	$150	+$10.5	64% 40250-23024 (63274)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 82.7¢	$54.6	$66	+$11.4	55% 8733-7198 (15931)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 77.4¢	$47.9	$61.92	+$14.02	65% 125540-67211 (192751)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 64.3¢	$38.61	$60	+$21.39	64% 23717-13072 (36789)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$37.92	$40.81	+$2.89	66% 126157-64992 (191149)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 58¢	$28.32	$48.8	+$20.48	49% 78112-81629 (159741)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 50¢	$24.61	$49.22	+$24.61	59% 6862-4815 (11677)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$27	$23	-$4	61% 95227-60115 (155342)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$12.37	$19.78	+$7.41	46% 38235-45168 (83403)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 95¢	$24	$25.26	+$1.26	56% 58238-44953 (103191)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 7.2¢	$4.14	—	-$4.14	55% 50600-41206 (91806)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 83¢	$16.6	$20	+$3.4	55% 23985-19370 (43355)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 92¢	$8.66	$9.41	+$0.75	58% 60701-44311 (105012)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 51¢	$6.63	$13	+$6.37	57% 8039-6181 (14220)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$777.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$615.41

Record

58%

38054-27274 (65328)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$593.05

Value

$605.55

PnL

+$12.5

Record

55%

15605-13002 (28607)

Both legs:

Up$375.8562.1¢+$229.7

Down$217.1942.6¢-$217.19

ply-pm0

Invested

$437.25

Value

$415.34

PnL

-$21.91

Record

50%

5364-5445 (10809)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$292.97

Value

$279.13

PnL

-$13.84

Record

56%

13859-10996 (24855)

Both legs:

Up$171.3861.4¢+$107.75

Down$121.5843.5¢-$121.58

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$217.46

Value

$239.39

PnL

+$24.48

Record

60%

12334-8178 (20512)

spartacray

Invested

$168.66

Value

$227.69

PnL

+$59.03

Record

53%

27286-24253 (51539)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$174.37

Value

$154.99

PnL

-$19.38

Record

57%

12576-9663 (22239)

Both legs:

Up$106.1968.5¢+$48.8

Down$68.1840.2¢-$68.18

Little-big

Invested

$153.68

Value

$250.48

PnL

+$96.8

Record

34%

18894-35886 (54780)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$132.42

Value

$161.62

PnL

+$29.2

Record

54%

8118-6811 (14929)

Both legs:

Up$107.8366.7¢+$53.79

Down$24.5919.1¢-$24.59

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$142.88

Value

$191.38

PnL

+$48.49

Record

59%

23290-16364 (39654)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$128.3

Value

$118.66

PnL

-$9.64

Record

55%

7547-6187 (13734)

ohioism

Invested

$139.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$10.5

Record

64%

40250-23024 (63274)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$54.6

Value

$66

PnL

+$11.4

Record

55%

8733-7198 (15931)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$47.9

Value

$61.92

PnL

+$14.02

Record

65%

125540-67211 (192751)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$38.61

Value

$60

PnL

+$21.39

Record

64%

23717-13072 (36789)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$37.92

Value

$40.81

PnL

+$2.89

Record

66%

126157-64992 (191149)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$28.32

Value

$48.8

PnL

+$20.48

Record

49%

78112-81629 (159741)

13897651<$100

Invested

$24.61

Value

$49.22

PnL

+$24.61

Record

59%

6862-4815 (11677)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$23

PnL

-$4

Record

61%

95227-60115 (155342)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$12.37

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$7.41

Record

46%

38235-45168 (83403)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$25.26

PnL

+$1.26

Record

56%

58238-44953 (103191)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.14

Value

—

PnL

-$4.14

Record

55%

50600-41206 (91806)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$3.4

Record

55%

23985-19370 (43355)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$8.66

Value

$9.41

PnL

+$0.75

Record

58%

60701-44311 (105012)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$6.63

Value

$13

PnL

+$6.37

Record

57%

8039-6181 (14220)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3416cf25...f1c4f7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793424300

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.4K

+$615.41

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$12.5

ply-pm0

Up — $415.34

-$21.91

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$13.84

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $239.39

+$24.48

spartacray

Up — $227.69

+$59.03

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$19.38

Little-big

Up — $250.48

+$96.8

sfkjbsr457

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$29.2

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $191.38

+$48.49

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