Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 40%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$50.77

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 18 top traders (44%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares851

Combined PnL-$471.61

Up10 traders

Total Value$619.76

Total Shares620

Combined PnL+$420.84

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 36.9¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$328.94	77% 9477-2869 (12346)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.9¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$1.7K	$3.2K	+$1.4K
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 47.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$74.56	50% 5364-5445 (10809)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$597.98	—	-$597.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.9¢	$618.03	$1.3K	+$672.54
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$273.41	55% 15605-13002 (28607)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$716.71	$1.5K	+$756.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$483.23	—	-$483.23
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$781.77	$704.96	-$76.81	56% 13859-10996 (24855)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$382.22	—	-$382.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$399.55	$704.96	+$305.41
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$675.47	$785.74	+$110.27	60% 12334-8178 (20512)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$463.95	$785.74	+$321.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$211.51	—	-$211.51
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$683.81	$541.78	-$142.03	57% 12576-9663 (22239)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.9¢	$372.03	—	-$372.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$311.78	$541.78	+$230
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 78.9¢	$548.09	$308.97	-$239.12	55% 7547-6187 (13734)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.9¢	$343.11	—	-$343.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.3¢	$204.98	$308.97	+$103.99
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 50.8¢	$359.32	—	-$359.32	55% 8733-7198 (15931)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 65.8¢	$115.9	$149.46	+$33.56	59% 23290-16364 (39654)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$55.7	$149.46	+$93.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.8¢	$60.2	—	-$60.2
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$124.24	$63.76	-$60.48	53% 27286-24253 (51539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$95.92	—	-$95.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$28.32	$63.76	+$35.44
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$71.93	—	-$57.53	64% 23717-13072 (36789)
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Downavg 32¢	$31.49	$59.58	+$28.09	63% 52091-30868 (82959)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$24.44	—	-$24.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.8¢	$7.05	$59.58	+$52.53
AL almach	Upavg 31.4¢	$84.08	$268.06	+$183.97	55% 48555-40104 (88659)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 12.7¢	$18.54	$118.1	+$99.56	66% 112303-58850 (171153)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$56.71	$75	+$18.29	59% 6862-4815 (11677)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$36.03	$75	+$38.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$20.68	—	-$20.68
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 35.1¢	$24.44	—	-$24.44	46% 38235-45168 (83403)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$64.67	$59.96	-$4.71	55% 23985-19370 (43355)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$40.08	$59.96	+$19.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$24.59	—	-$24.59
MO mo-money	Upavg 32.2¢	$54.13	$125.1	+$70.97	55% 50600-41206 (91806)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 74.1¢	$21.87	—	-$21.87	66% 126157-64992 (191149)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 22¢	$7.58	$34.48	+$26.89	62% 43922-26940 (70862)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$12	—	-$12	49% 78112-81629 (159741)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$10.83	$21.5	+$10.67	65% 4101-2231 (6332)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 47¢	$5.17	$11	+$5.83	57% 8039-6181 (14220)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 18.8¢	$4.4	$23.4	+$19	52% 90624-85193 (175817)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 25¢	$2.75	$11	+$8.25	61% 95227-60115 (155342)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$3,481.58

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$328.94

Record

77%

9477-2869 (12346)

Both legs:

Down$1,742.3836.9¢$-1.7K

Up$1,739.255.2¢+$1.4K

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$1,216.01

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$74.56

Record

50%

5364-5445 (10809)

Both legs:

Down$597.9846.7¢-$597.98

Up$618.0347.9¢+$672.54

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,199.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$273.41

Record

55%

15605-13002 (28607)

Both legs:

Up$716.7148.6¢+$756.63

Down$483.2349.9¢-$483.23

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$781.77

Value

$704.96

PnL

-$76.81

Record

56%

13859-10996 (24855)

Both legs:

Down$382.2243.8¢-$382.22

Up$399.5556.7¢+$305.41

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$675.47

Value

$785.74

PnL

+$110.27

Record

60%

12334-8178 (20512)

Both legs:

Up$463.9559¢+$321.79

Down$211.5144.1¢-$211.51

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$683.81

Value

$541.78

PnL

-$142.03

Record

57%

12576-9663 (22239)

Both legs:

Down$372.0358.9¢-$372.03

Up$311.7857.5¢+$230

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$548.09

Value

$308.97

PnL

-$239.12

Record

55%

7547-6187 (13734)

Both legs:

Down$343.1178.9¢-$343.11

Up$204.9866.3¢+$103.99

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$359.32

Value

—

PnL

-$359.32

Record

55%

8733-7198 (15931)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.9

Value

$149.46

PnL

+$33.56

Record

59%

23290-16364 (39654)

Both legs:

Invested

$124.24

Value

$63.76

PnL

-$60.48

Record

53%

27286-24253 (51539)

Both legs:

Down$95.9269.2¢-$95.92

Up$28.3244.4¢+$35.44

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$71.93

Value

—

PnL

-$57.53

Record

64%

23717-13072 (36789)

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$31.49

Value

$59.58

PnL

+$28.09

Record

63%

52091-30868 (82959)

Both legs:

Down$24.4432¢-$24.44

Up$7.0511.8¢+$52.53

almach

Invested

$84.08

Value

$268.06

PnL

+$183.97

Record

55%

48555-40104 (88659)

antsaslyku

Invested

$18.54

Value

$118.1

PnL

+$99.56

Record

66%

112303-58850 (171153)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$56.71

Value

$75

PnL

+$18.29

Record

59%

6862-4815 (11677)

Both legs:

Up$36.0348¢+$38.97

Down$20.6848.6¢-$20.68

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.44

Value

—

PnL

-$24.44

Record

46%

38235-45168 (83403)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$64.67

Value

$59.96

PnL

-$4.71

Record

55%

23985-19370 (43355)

Both legs:

Up$40.0866.8¢+$19.89

Down$24.5955¢-$24.59

mo-money

Invested

$54.13

Value

$125.1

PnL

+$70.97

Record

55%

50600-41206 (91806)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.87

Value

—

PnL

-$21.87

Record

66%

126157-64992 (191149)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$7.58

Value

$34.48

PnL

+$26.89

Record

62%

43922-26940 (70862)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

—

PnL

-$12

Record

49%

78112-81629 (159741)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$10.83

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$10.67

Record

65%

4101-2231 (6332)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

$11

PnL

+$5.83

Record

57%

8039-6181 (14220)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$19

Record

52%

90624-85193 (175817)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$11

PnL

+$8.25

Record

61%

95227-60115 (155342)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 18 top traders (44%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xdb427167...ef139b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793424000

Traders in this Market

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $0

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded