Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Up 82%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$302.99
Smart Money Signal
19 of 24 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 72.4¢ | $301.57 | $404.14 | +$102.57 | 55% 15605-13002 (28607) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 80¢ | $280 | $350 | +$70 | 55% 8733-7198 (15931) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 84¢ | $194.01 | $196.08 | +$2.07 | 60% 12334-8178 (20512) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 52.5¢ | $205.89 | — | -$205.89 | 58% 38054-27274 (65328) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $118.62 | $118.74 | +$0.12 | 59% 62390-43552 (105942) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 86.9¢ | $127.19 | $116.48 | -$10.71 | 54% 8118-6811 (14929) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 58.2¢ | $89.26 | $137.45 | +$48.19 | 56% 13859-10996 (24855) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 46¢ | $100.16 | $217.74 | +$117.58 | 55% 50600-41206 (91806) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 78¢ | $86.1 | $110.41 | +$24.31 | 53% 27286-24253 (51539) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 70.7¢ | $87.02 | $123 | +$35.99 | 57% 12576-9663 (22239) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $60.71 | $80.73 | +$20.02 | 50% 5364-5445 (10809) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $70.5 | $75 | +$4.5 | 57% 8039-6181 (14220) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43¢ | $32.25 | $75 | +$42.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51¢ | $38.25 | — | -$38.25 | |
AL almach | Upavg 46¢ | $65.44 | $142.26 | +$76.82 | 55% 48555-40104 (88659) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $58.2 | $80 | +$21.8 | 57% 12125-9105 (21230) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 81.8¢ | $27.95 | $34.19 | +$6.24 | 64% 23717-13072 (36789) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $23 | $50 | +$27 | 58% 51066-37207 (88273) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $17.52 | $21.1 | +$3.58 | 61% 95227-60115 (155342) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $16.48 | — | -$16.48 | 59% 6862-4815 (11677) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $13.11 | $17 | +$3.89 | 66% 126157-64992 (191149) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $8.82 | $9.09 | +$0.27 | 52% 90624-85193 (175817) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.8¢ | $4.86 | — | -$4.86 | 46% 38235-45168 (83403) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $3.75 | $5.14 | +$1.39 | 65% 125540-67211 (192751) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $12.07 | — | -$12.07 | 59% 23290-16364 (39654) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $9 | — | -$8.84 | 56% 2226-1742 (3968) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3655-2838 (6493) |
Invested
$301.57
Value
$404.14
PnL
+$102.57
Record
55%
15605-13002 (28607)
machinelearnedInvested
$280
Value
$350
PnL
+$70
Record
55%
8733-7198 (15931)
Invested
$194.01
Value
$196.08
PnL
+$2.07
Record
60%
12334-8178 (20512)
Invested
$205.89
Value
—
PnL
-$205.89
Record
58%
38054-27274 (65328)
Invested
$118.62
Value
$118.74
PnL
+$0.12
Record
59%
62390-43552 (105942)
Invested
$127.19
Value
$116.48
PnL
-$10.71
Record
54%
8118-6811 (14929)
Invested
$89.26
Value
$137.45
PnL
+$48.19
Record
56%
13859-10996 (24855)
Invested
$100.16
Value
$217.74
PnL
+$117.58
Record
55%
50600-41206 (91806)
Invested
$86.1
Value
$110.41
PnL
+$24.31
Record
53%
27286-24253 (51539)
FairValueMachineInvested
$87.02
Value
$123
PnL
+$35.99
Record
57%
12576-9663 (22239)
Invested
$60.71
Value
$80.73
PnL
+$20.02
Record
50%
5364-5445 (10809)
Invested
$70.5
Value
$75
PnL
+$4.5
Record
57%
8039-6181 (14220)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.44
Value
$142.26
PnL
+$76.82
Record
55%
48555-40104 (88659)
Invested
$58.2
Value
$80
PnL
+$21.8
Record
57%
12125-9105 (21230)
Invested
$27.95
Value
$34.19
PnL
+$6.24
Record
64%
23717-13072 (36789)
Invested
$23
Value
$50
PnL
+$27
Record
58%
51066-37207 (88273)
Invested
$17.52
Value
$21.1
PnL
+$3.58
Record
61%
95227-60115 (155342)
Invested
$16.48
Value
—
PnL
-$16.48
Record
59%
6862-4815 (11677)
Invested
$13.11
Value
$17
PnL
+$3.89
Record
66%
126157-64992 (191149)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$9.09
PnL
+$0.27
Record
52%
90624-85193 (175817)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
—
PnL
-$4.86
Record
46%
38235-45168 (83403)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$5.14
PnL
+$1.39
Record
65%
125540-67211 (192751)
Invested
$12.07
Value
—
PnL
-$12.07
Record
59%
23290-16364 (39654)
Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$8.84
Record
56%
2226-1742 (3968)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3655-2838 (6493)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $404.14
machinelearned
Up — $350
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $196.08
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
0x50f7
Up — $118.74
sfkjbsr457
Up — $116.48
GoodFallen
Up — $137.45
mo-money
Up — $217.74
spartacray
Up — $110.41
FairValueMachine
Up — $123