Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Up 77%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$58.2
Smart Money Signal
19 of 24 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL almach | Upavg 99¢ | $256.79 | $237.77 | -$19.02 | 55% 48555-40104 (88659) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 88.7¢ | $139.1 | $150 | +$10.9 | 56% 13859-10996 (24855) |
 ohioism | Upavg 85.2¢ | $129 | $151.37 | +$22.37 | 64% 40250-23024 (63274) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 89¢ | $110.68 | $119.97 | +$9.29 | 57% 12576-9663 (22239) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 91¢ | $102.35 | $100.68 | -$1.66 | 54% 8118-6811 (14929) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 81.4¢ | $88.13 | $108.33 | +$20.2 | 59% 23290-16364 (39654) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $88.59 | $67.47 | -$21.12 | 57% 8039-6181 (14220) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37¢ | $46.99 | — | -$46.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.7¢ | $41.6 | $67.47 | +$25.87 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 93.2¢ | $88.37 | $93 | +$4.63 | 55% 7547-6187 (13734) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Upavg 75.7¢ | $77.7 | $90 | +$12.3 | 55% 15605-13002 (28607) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $64.98 | $74.79 | +$9.81 | 60% 12334-8178 (20512) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 82.2¢ | $68.05 | $77.86 | +$9.81 | 50% 5364-5445 (10809) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $58.51 | $64.3 | +$5.79 | 64% 23717-13072 (36789) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $57.02 | $56 | -$1.02 | 52% 90624-85193 (175817) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 80.7¢ | $45.07 | $55.87 | +$10.8 | 66% 126157-64992 (191149) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 91.2¢ | $47.76 | $52.38 | +$4.62 | 61% 95227-60115 (155342) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $19.91 | — | -$19.91 | 55% 50600-41206 (91806) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $29.64 | $24.01 | -$5.63 | 55% 8733-7198 (15931) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 74.5¢ | $14.63 | $18.42 | +$3.79 | 57% 12125-9105 (21230) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $18.6 | $33.27 | +$14.67 | 59% 6862-4815 (11677) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 7.2¢ | $11.79 | — | -$11.79 | 46% 38235-45168 (83403) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $13.78 | — | -$13.77 | 58% 51066-37207 (88273) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 25¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 55% 23985-19370 (43355) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $3.12 | — | -$3.12 | 49% 78112-81629 (159741) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $0.36 | $0.51 | +$0.15 | 65% 125540-67211 (192751) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3655-2838 (6493) |
Invested
$256.79
Value
$237.77
PnL
-$19.02
Record
55%
48555-40104 (88659)
Invested
$139.1
Value
$150
PnL
+$10.9
Record
56%
13859-10996 (24855)
ohioismInvested
$129
Value
$151.37
PnL
+$22.37
Record
64%
40250-23024 (63274)
FairValueMachineInvested
$110.68
Value
$119.97
PnL
+$9.29
Record
57%
12576-9663 (22239)
Invested
$102.35
Value
$100.68
PnL
-$1.66
Record
54%
8118-6811 (14929)
Invested
$88.13
Value
$108.33
PnL
+$20.2
Record
59%
23290-16364 (39654)
Invested
$88.59
Value
$67.47
PnL
-$21.12
Record
57%
8039-6181 (14220)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.37
Value
$93
PnL
+$4.63
Record
55%
7547-6187 (13734)
Invested
$77.7
Value
$90
PnL
+$12.3
Record
55%
15605-13002 (28607)
Invested
$64.98
Value
$74.79
PnL
+$9.81
Record
60%
12334-8178 (20512)
Invested
$68.05
Value
$77.86
PnL
+$9.81
Record
50%
5364-5445 (10809)
Invested
$58.51
Value
$64.3
PnL
+$5.79
Record
64%
23717-13072 (36789)
Invested
$57.02
Value
$56
PnL
-$1.02
Record
52%
90624-85193 (175817)
Invested
$45.07
Value
$55.87
PnL
+$10.8
Record
66%
126157-64992 (191149)
Invested
$47.76
Value
$52.38
PnL
+$4.62
Record
61%
95227-60115 (155342)
Invested
$19.91
Value
—
PnL
-$19.91
Record
55%
50600-41206 (91806)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$29.64
Value
$24.01
PnL
-$5.63
Record
55%
8733-7198 (15931)
Invested
$14.63
Value
$18.42
PnL
+$3.79
Record
57%
12125-9105 (21230)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$33.27
PnL
+$14.67
Record
59%
6862-4815 (11677)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$11.79
Value
—
PnL
-$11.79
Record
46%
38235-45168 (83403)
Invested
$13.78
Value
—
PnL
-$13.77
Record
58%
51066-37207 (88273)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
55%
23985-19370 (43355)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.12
Value
—
PnL
-$3.12
Record
49%
78112-81629 (159741)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.51
PnL
+$0.15
Record
65%
125540-67211 (192751)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3655-2838 (6493)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
almach
Up — $237.77
GoodFallen
Up — $150
ohioism
Up — $151.37
FairValueMachine
Up — $119.97
sfkjbsr457
Up — $100.68
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $108.33
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $93
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $90
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $74.79