Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$725.85

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,859

Combined PnL-$342.39

Up13 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,664

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Up	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$869.96	56% 3655-2838 (6493)
└ Up leg	Up	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$3.2K
└ Down leg	Down	—	—	$-2.4K
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3.8¢	$74.94	—	-$74.94	59% 62390-43552 (105942)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 81.5¢	$724.3	$751.98	+$27.68	50% 5364-5445 (10809)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.5¢	$612.62	$751.98	+$139.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.5¢	$111.68	—	-$111.68
NIULAI4	Upavg 34.3¢	$421.4	$1.2K	+$808.05	77% 9477-2869 (12346)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$468.66	$270.49	-$198.16	55% 15605-13002 (28607)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$302.82	—	-$302.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.3¢	$165.84	$270.49	+$104.65
MO mo-money	Upavg 77¢	$369.77	$403.83	+$34.07	55% 50600-41206 (91806)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$368.54	$127.38	-$241.16	57% 12576-9663 (22239)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.2¢	$286.75	—	-$286.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.2¢	$81.8	$127.38	+$45.59
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$310.95	$95.18	-$215.76	56% 13859-10996 (24855)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$265.6	—	-$265.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.6¢	$45.35	$95.18	+$49.83
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 45.1¢	$174.02	$243.35	+$69.34	55% 7547-6187 (13734)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$109.86	$243.35	+$133.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.6¢	$64.15	—	-$64.15
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 86.4¢	$245.26	$216	-$29.26	54% 8118-6811 (14929)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.4¢	$186.72	$216	+$29.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$58.54	—	-$58.54
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 70.1¢	$242.7	$208.88	-$30.52	60% 12334-8178 (20512)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.1¢	$146.33	$208.88	+$62.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.8¢	$93.64	—	-$93.08
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 86.7¢	$199.32	$226.33	+$27.02	51% 17174-16681 (33855)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.7¢	$196.32	$226.33	+$30.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 3¢	$3	—	-$3
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 55.6¢	$166.79	$300	+$133.21	48% 23410-25728 (49138)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 17.3¢	$59.38	—	-$59.38	55% 8733-7198 (15931)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97¢	$181.39	$187	+$5.61	93% 23822-1789 (25611)
pspspsps5	Upavg 95.1¢	$160.29	$168.5	+$8.21	46% 38235-45168 (83403)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 7.4¢	$32.34	—	-$32.34	55% 48555-40104 (88659)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$61.79	$80	+$18.21	59% 23290-16364 (39654)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$60.75	—	-$60.75	58% 51066-37207 (88273)
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Upavg 42.3¢	$28.32	$64.62	+$36.3	63% 52091-30868 (82959)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$27.32	$64.62	+$37.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 2¢	$1	—	-$1
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 93.4¢	$49.82	$53.32	+$3.5	49% 78112-81629 (159741)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 2.8¢	$3.1	—	-$3.1	52% 90624-85193 (175817)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 54.4¢	$44.74	$63.3	+$18.56	59% 6862-4815 (11677)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 71¢	$64.38	—	-$64.38	56% 58238-44953 (103191)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 87¢	$52.2	$60	+$7.8	57% 12125-9105 (21230)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$7,990.84

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$869.96

Record

56%

3655-2838 (6493)

Both legs:

Invested

$74.94

Value

—

PnL

-$74.94

Record

59%

62390-43552 (105942)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$724.3

Value

$751.98

PnL

+$27.68

Record

50%

5364-5445 (10809)

Both legs:

Up$612.6281.5¢+$139.36

Down$111.6813.5¢-$111.68

NIULAI4

Invested

$421.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$808.05

Record

77%

9477-2869 (12346)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$468.66

Value

$270.49

PnL

-$198.16

Record

55%

15605-13002 (28607)

Both legs:

Down$302.8249.9¢-$302.82

Up$165.8461.3¢+$104.65

mo-money

Invested

$369.77

Value

$403.83

PnL

+$34.07

Record

55%

50600-41206 (91806)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$368.54

Value

$127.38

PnL

-$241.16

Record

57%

12576-9663 (22239)

Both legs:

Down$286.7563.2¢-$286.75

Up$81.864.2¢+$45.59

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$310.95

Value

$95.18

PnL

-$215.76

Record

56%

13859-10996 (24855)

Both legs:

Down$265.659.5¢-$265.6

Up$45.3547.6¢+$49.83

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$174.02

Value

$243.35

PnL

+$69.34

Record

55%

7547-6187 (13734)

Both legs:

Up$109.8645.1¢+$133.49

Down$64.1541.6¢-$64.15

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$245.26

Value

$216

PnL

-$29.26

Record

54%

8118-6811 (14929)

Both legs:

Up$186.7286.4¢+$29.28

Down$58.5432.2¢-$58.54

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$242.7

Value

$208.88

PnL

-$30.52

Record

60%

12334-8178 (20512)

Both legs:

Up$146.3370.1¢+$62.55

Down$93.6454.8¢-$93.08

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$199.32

Value

$226.33

PnL

+$27.02

Record

51%

17174-16681 (33855)

Both legs:

Up$196.3286.7¢+$30.02

Down$33¢-$3

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$166.79

Value

$300

PnL

+$133.21

Record

48%

23410-25728 (49138)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.38

Value

—

PnL

-$59.38

Record

55%

8733-7198 (15931)

hoodquant

Invested

$181.39

Value

$187

PnL

+$5.61

Record

93%

23822-1789 (25611)

pspspsps5

Invested

$160.29

Value

$168.5

PnL

+$8.21

Record

46%

38235-45168 (83403)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.34

Value

—

PnL

-$32.34

Record

55%

48555-40104 (88659)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$61.79

Value

$80

PnL

+$18.21

Record

59%

23290-16364 (39654)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.75

Value

—

PnL

-$60.75

Record

58%

51066-37207 (88273)

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Invested

$28.32

Value

$64.62

PnL

+$36.3

Record

63%

52091-30868 (82959)

Both legs:

Up$27.3242.3¢+$37.3

Down$12¢-$1

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$49.82

Value

$53.32

PnL

+$3.5

Record

49%

78112-81629 (159741)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.1

Value

—

PnL

-$3.1

Record

52%

90624-85193 (175817)

13897651<$100

Invested

$44.74

Value

$63.3

PnL

+$18.56

Record

59%

6862-4815 (11677)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.38

Value

—

PnL

-$64.38

Record

56%

58238-44953 (103191)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$52.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$7.8

Record

57%

12125-9105 (21230)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd5a84689...f2f4f3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793422500

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $1.2K

+$808.05

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$198.16

mo-money

Up — $403.83

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded