Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$973.43

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,240

Combined PnL-$980.5

Down6 traders

Total Value$320.84

Total Shares321

Combined PnL+$7.07

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 53.5¢	$842.99	—	-$842.99	58% 38032-27256 (65288)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 45.2¢	$573.86	$420.56	-$153.3	55% 15596-12992 (28588)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$181.87	$420.56	+$238.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$391.99	—	-$391.99
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 74.1¢	$438.08	$410	-$28.08	77% 9473-2863 (12336)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.1¢	$303.62	$410	+$106.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$134.47	—	-$134.47
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 46.2¢	$381.51	$356.47	-$25.04	56% 13849-10987 (24836)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$156.73	$356.47	+$199.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.2¢	$224.78	—	-$224.78
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$392.93	$367.94	-$24.99	50% 5353-5437 (10790)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$209.12	$367.94	+$158.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$183.81	—	-$183.81
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$335.57	$401.85	+$66.28	57% 12565-9655 (22220)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$192.5	$401.85	+$209.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.2¢	$143.07	—	-$143.07
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 56.4¢	$185.11	$140.6	-$44.52	57% 12117-9094 (21211)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$77.92	$140.6	+$62.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$107.2	—	-$107.2
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$155.4	$152.27	-$3.14	54% 8117-6809 (14926)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.3¢	$104.01	$152.27	+$48.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.8¢	$51.39	—	-$51.39
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 56.1¢	$151.2	$164.93	+$13.73	55% 7536-6179 (13715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.1¢	$92.47	$164.93	+$72.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$58.73	—	-$58.73
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 53.1¢	$147.31	$105.21	-$42.1	59% 23278-16359 (39637)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.1¢	$88.46	—	-$88.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$58.85	$105.21	+$46.36
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 1.2¢	$4.2	—	-$4.2	63% 52078-30813 (82891)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 99¢	$164.73	$119	-$45.73	65% 125360-67129 (192489)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$130.73	$45.93	-$84.8	55% 8725-7188 (15913)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$109.05	—	-$109.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$21.68	$45.93	+$24.25
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$56.96	—	-$56.96	46% 38212-45143 (83355)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$66.68	$42.75	-$20.74	60% 12325-8168 (20493)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$39.96	—	-$38.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$24.59	$42.75	+$18.16
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$43.95	$85	+$41.05	57% 8017-6164 (14181)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 90.7¢	$57.25	$33.23	-$24.02	66% 126107-64964 (191071)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$26.2	$52.96	+$26.76	34% 18880-35867 (54747)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$23.35	—	-$23.35	59% 6860-4814 (11674)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$20.44	—	-$20.44	55% 23974-19363 (43337)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 36.2¢	$11.92	$22.65	+$10.73	52% 90584-85156 (175740)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$9.1	—	-$9.1	49% 78088-81604 (159692)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 61¢	$9.74	$8	-$1.73	61% 95179-60087 (155266)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 39.8¢	$4.85	—	-$4.85	66% 112296-58820 (171116)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$19.44	—	-$18.61	64% 23652-13033 (36685)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$842.99

Value

—

PnL

-$842.99

Record

58%

38032-27256 (65288)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$573.86

Value

$420.56

PnL

-$153.3

Record

55%

15596-12992 (28588)

Both legs:

Down$181.8743.2¢+$238.69

Up$391.9945.2¢-$391.99

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$438.08

Value

$410

PnL

-$28.08

Record

77%

9473-2863 (12336)

Both legs:

Down$303.6274.1¢+$106.38

Up$134.4728.5¢-$134.47

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$381.51

Value

$356.47

PnL

-$25.04

Record

56%

13849-10987 (24836)

Both legs:

Down$156.7344¢+$199.74

Up$224.7846.2¢-$224.78

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$392.93

Value

$367.94

PnL

-$24.99

Record

50%

5353-5437 (10790)

Both legs:

Down$209.1256.8¢+$158.82

Up$183.8140.4¢-$183.81

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$335.57

Value

$401.85

PnL

+$66.28

Record

57%

12565-9655 (22220)

Both legs:

Down$192.547.9¢+$209.35

Up$143.0746.2¢-$143.07

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$185.11

Value

$140.6

PnL

-$44.52

Record

57%

12117-9094 (21211)

Both legs:

Down$77.9255.4¢+$62.68

Up$107.256.4¢-$107.2

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.4

Value

$152.27

PnL

-$3.14

Record

54%

8117-6809 (14926)

Both legs:

Down$104.0168.3¢+$48.25

Up$51.3939.8¢-$51.39

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$151.2

Value

$164.93

PnL

+$13.73

Record

55%

7536-6179 (13715)

Both legs:

Down$92.4756.1¢+$72.46

Up$58.7347.8¢-$58.73

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$147.31

Value

$105.21

PnL

-$42.1

Record

59%

23278-16359 (39637)

Both legs:

Up$88.4653.1¢-$88.46

Down$58.8555.9¢+$46.36

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

—

PnL

-$4.2

Record

63%

52078-30813 (82891)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$164.73

Value

$119

PnL

-$45.73

Record

65%

125360-67129 (192489)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$130.73

Value

$45.93

PnL

-$84.8

Record

55%

8725-7188 (15913)

Both legs:

Up$109.0556.1¢-$109.05

Down$21.6847.2¢+$24.25

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$56.96

Value

—

PnL

-$56.96

Record

46%

38212-45143 (83355)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$66.68

Value

$42.75

PnL

-$20.74

Record

60%

12325-8168 (20493)

Both legs:

Up$39.9642.7¢-$38.9

Down$24.5957.5¢+$18.16

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$43.95

Value

$85

PnL

+$41.05

Record

57%

8017-6164 (14181)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$57.25

Value

$33.23

PnL

-$24.02

Record

66%

126107-64964 (191071)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$26.2

Value

$52.96

PnL

+$26.76

Record

34%

18880-35867 (54747)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$23.35

Value

—

PnL

-$23.35

Record

59%

6860-4814 (11674)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$20.44

Value

—

PnL

-$20.44

Record

55%

23974-19363 (43337)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$11.92

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$10.73

Record

52%

90584-85156 (175740)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

—

PnL

-$9.1

Record

49%

78088-81604 (159692)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$9.74

Value

PnL

-$1.73

Record

61%

95179-60087 (155266)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

—

PnL

-$4.85

Record

66%

112296-58820 (171116)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$19.44

Value

—

PnL

-$18.61

Record

64%

23652-13033 (36685)

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x94ca4d80...afa05d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793417100

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$842.99

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$13.73

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$42.1

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