Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Up 88%
5 arb excluded
$1.9K
$185.29
Smart Money Signal
14 of 17 top traders (82%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 74.1¢ | $308.2 | $285.58 | -$22.62 | 50% 5353-5437 (10790) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 74.1¢ | $211.59 | $285.58 | +$73.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19¢ | $96.61 | — | -$96.61 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 70.2¢ | $274.03 | $208.64 | -$65.39 | 56% 13849-10987 (24836) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.2¢ | $127.62 | — | -$127.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.2¢ | $146.41 | $208.64 | +$62.23 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 35.5¢ | $308.17 | $172.32 | -$135.86 | 55% 15596-12992 (28588) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.1¢ | $113.9 | $172.32 | +$58.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.5¢ | $194.27 | — | -$194.27 | |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 84.3¢ | $167.45 | $172.09 | +$4.64 | 54% 8117-6809 (14926) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Upavg 68.4¢ | $186.24 | $168.08 | -$18.16 | 57% 12117-9094 (21211) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.4¢ | $114.88 | $168.08 | +$53.19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $71.36 | — | -$71.36 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 58¢ | $107.87 | $185.99 | +$78.12 | 58% 38032-27256 (65288) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 78.2¢ | $96.17 | $95.31 | -$0.86 | 59% 23278-16359 (39637) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 37.3¢ | $96.19 | $60 | -$36.19 | 57% 12565-9655 (22220) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.3¢ | $48.49 | — | -$48.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.5¢ | $47.7 | $60 | +$12.3 | |
SE seeeeeeb | Upavg 62¢ | $70.84 | $114.26 | +$43.42 | 51% 730-695 (1425) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $72.41 | $74.59 | +$2.17 | 55% 7536-6179 (13715) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $64.35 | $79.45 | +$15.1 | 64% 40233-23011 (63244) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $60.39 | $61 | +$0.61 | 52% 90584-85156 (175740) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.8¢ | $9.95 | — | -$9.95 | 46% 38212-45143 (83355) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 89.4¢ | $53.45 | $59.79 | +$6.34 | 61% 95179-60087 (155266) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $47.19 | $85.21 | +$38.02 | 59% 6860-4814 (11674) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $7.15 | $5.88 | -$1.27 | 55% 8725-7188 (15913) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $41.06 | $53.16 | +$12.1 | 66% 126107-64964 (191071) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $30.56 | $32.86 | +$2.3 | 58% 60691-44301 (104992) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $16.52 | $19.36 | +$2.89 | 60% 12325-8168 (20493) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 30.1¢ | $22.52 | — | -$7.54 | 64% 23652-13033 (36685) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $6.78 | $6 | -$0.78 | 55% 23974-19363 (43337) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3653-2838 (6491) |
Invested
$308.2
Value
$285.58
PnL
-$22.62
Record
50%
5353-5437 (10790)
Both legs:
Invested
$274.03
Value
$208.64
PnL
-$65.39
Record
56%
13849-10987 (24836)
Both legs:
Invested
$308.17
Value
$172.32
PnL
-$135.86
Record
55%
15596-12992 (28588)
Both legs:
Invested
$167.45
Value
$172.09
PnL
+$4.64
Record
54%
8117-6809 (14926)
Invested
$186.24
Value
$168.08
PnL
-$18.16
Record
57%
12117-9094 (21211)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.87
Value
$185.99
PnL
+$78.12
Record
58%
38032-27256 (65288)
Invested
$96.17
Value
$95.31
PnL
-$0.86
Record
59%
23278-16359 (39637)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$96.19
Value
$60
PnL
-$36.19
Record
57%
12565-9655 (22220)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.84
Value
$114.26
PnL
+$43.42
Record
51%
730-695 (1425)
Invested
$72.41
Value
$74.59
PnL
+$2.17
Record
55%
7536-6179 (13715)
ohioism<$100Invested
$64.35
Value
$79.45
PnL
+$15.1
Record
64%
40233-23011 (63244)
Invested
$60.39
Value
$61
PnL
+$0.61
Record
52%
90584-85156 (175740)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$9.95
Value
—
PnL
-$9.95
Record
46%
38212-45143 (83355)
Invested
$53.45
Value
$59.79
PnL
+$6.34
Record
61%
95179-60087 (155266)
Invested
$47.19
Value
$85.21
PnL
+$38.02
Record
59%
6860-4814 (11674)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$7.15
Value
$5.88
PnL
-$1.27
Record
55%
8725-7188 (15913)
Invested
$41.06
Value
$53.16
PnL
+$12.1
Record
66%
126107-64964 (191071)
Invested
$30.56
Value
$32.86
PnL
+$2.3
Record
58%
60691-44301 (104992)
Invested
$16.52
Value
$19.36
PnL
+$2.89
Record
60%
12325-8168 (20493)
Invested
$22.52
Value
—
PnL
-$7.54
Record
64%
23652-13033 (36685)
Invested
$6.78
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.78
Record
55%
23974-19363 (43337)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3653-2838 (6491)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sfkjbsr457
Up — $172.09
EZTRADENL2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $185.99
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $95.31
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
seeeeeeb
Up — $114.26
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $74.59