Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 81%
2 arb excluded
$4.6K
$-7.6K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 21 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 16¢ | $1.3K | — | $-7.9K | 56% 3653-2838 (6491) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$1.25 | 59% 62371-43533 (105904) |
TE Telawin | Upavg 54¢ | $500 | $925.93 | +$425.93 | 51% 346-339 (685) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 99.1¢ | $654.99 | $428.85 | -$226.14 | 55% 50598-41206 (91804) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 99¢ | $299.97 | $303 | +$3.03 | 49% 78088-81604 (159692) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 87.4¢ | $294.93 | $288 | -$6.93 | 54% 8117-6809 (14926) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 62.7¢ | $175.99 | $234.42 | +$58.43 | 57% 12565-9655 (22220) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $234.29 | $180.68 | -$53.61 | 55% 15596-12992 (28588) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75.8¢ | $137.01 | $180.68 | +$43.67 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.3¢ | $97.29 | — | -$97.29 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 62.2¢ | $172.59 | $175 | +$2.41 | 50% 5353-5437 (10790) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 81.7¢ | $159.47 | $195.15 | +$35.68 | 55% 8725-7188 (15913) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 77.4¢ | $135.89 | $100.5 | -$35.39 | 56% 13849-10987 (24836) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.4¢ | $77.75 | $100.5 | +$22.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.9¢ | $58.14 | — | -$58.14 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 84.7¢ | $103.13 | $100 | -$3.13 | 59% 23278-16359 (39637) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $78.67 | — | -$78.67 | 57% 8017-6164 (14181) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 81.3¢ | $71.68 | $71.35 | -$0.33 | 66% 126107-64964 (191071) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $62.68 | $62.28 | -$0.4 | 55% 7536-6179 (13715) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 60.3¢ | $40.78 | $67.63 | +$26.86 | 57% 12117-9094 (21211) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 86.1¢ | $50.9 | $48.64 | +$1.16 | 64% 23652-13033 (36685) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 70.9¢ | $40.21 | $53.57 | +$13.36 | 60% 12325-8168 (20493) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $27.39 | $37.27 | +$9.88 | 52% 90584-85156 (175740) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 62.8¢ | $23.3 | $37.11 | +$13.81 | 61% 95179-60087 (155266) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $23.32 | $47 | +$23.68 | 59% 6860-4814 (11674) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $4.34 | — | -$4.34 | 66% 112296-58820 (171116) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $2.23 | — | -$2.23 | 55% 23974-19363 (43337) |
Invested
$1,280
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
56%
3653-2838 (6491)
Invested
$1,242.68
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$1.25
Record
59%
62371-43533 (105904)
Invested
$500
Value
$925.93
PnL
+$425.93
Record
51%
346-339 (685)
Invested
$654.99
Value
$428.85
PnL
-$226.14
Record
55%
50598-41206 (91804)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$299.97
Value
$303
PnL
+$3.03
Record
49%
78088-81604 (159692)
Invested
$294.93
Value
$288
PnL
-$6.93
Record
54%
8117-6809 (14926)
FairValueMachineInvested
$175.99
Value
$234.42
PnL
+$58.43
Record
57%
12565-9655 (22220)
Invested
$234.29
Value
$180.68
PnL
-$53.61
Record
55%
15596-12992 (28588)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.59
Value
$175
PnL
+$2.41
Record
50%
5353-5437 (10790)
machinelearnedInvested
$159.47
Value
$195.15
PnL
+$35.68
Record
55%
8725-7188 (15913)
Invested
$135.89
Value
$100.5
PnL
-$35.39
Record
56%
13849-10987 (24836)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.13
Value
$100
PnL
-$3.13
Record
59%
23278-16359 (39637)
Invested
$78.67
Value
—
PnL
-$78.67
Record
57%
8017-6164 (14181)
Invested
$71.68
Value
$71.35
PnL
-$0.33
Record
66%
126107-64964 (191071)
Invested
$62.68
Value
$62.28
PnL
-$0.4
Record
55%
7536-6179 (13715)
Invested
$40.78
Value
$67.63
PnL
+$26.86
Record
57%
12117-9094 (21211)
Invested
$50.9
Value
$48.64
PnL
+$1.16
Record
64%
23652-13033 (36685)
Invested
$40.21
Value
$53.57
PnL
+$13.36
Record
60%
12325-8168 (20493)
Invested
$27.39
Value
$37.27
PnL
+$9.88
Record
52%
90584-85156 (175740)
Invested
$23.3
Value
$37.11
PnL
+$13.81
Record
61%
95179-60087 (155266)
Invested
$23.32
Value
$47
PnL
+$23.68
Record
59%
6860-4814 (11674)
Invested
$4.34
Value
—
PnL
-$4.34
Record
66%
112296-58820 (171116)
Invested
$2.23
Value
—
PnL
-$2.23
Record
55%
23974-19363 (43337)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
0x50f7
Up — $1.2K
Telawin
Up — $925.93
mo-money
Up — $428.85
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $303
sfkjbsr457
Up — $288
FairValueMachine
Up — $234.42
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $175
machinelearned
Up — $195.15