Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 43%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$-5.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 30 top traders (43%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares12,041

Combined PnL$-5.7K

Up17 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,190

Combined PnL+$496.47

Down — 43%Up — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocketCTR	Downavg 42.3¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K	49% 69-71 (140)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Downavg 43.7¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	52% 404-369 (773)
31 3123123121313CTR	Downavg 44.6¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	56% 673-535 (1208)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$696.79	$703.83	+$7.04	74% 102637-36444 (139081)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$570.54	$689.14	+$118.6	55% 8713-7177 (15890)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.3¢	$450	$689.14	+$239.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.6¢	$120.53	—	-$120.53
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Downavg 44.5¢	$415.12	—	-$415.12	53% 2014-1817 (3831)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$314.67	$500.89	+$186.22	51% 17155-16673 (33828)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$277.33	$500.89	+$223.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.7¢	$37.34	—	-$37.34
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$384.49	$508.77	+$124.28	57% 12549-9648 (22197)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.8¢	$288.8	$508.77	+$219.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$95.69	—	-$95.69
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR	Downavg 46.6¢	$347.57	—	-$347.57	50% 635-639 (1274)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$259.4	$300	+$40.6	50% 5339-5428 (10767)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$189.9	$300	+$110.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.8¢	$69.5	—	-$69.5
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$271.98	$307.41	+$35.63	60% 12314-8156 (20470)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$185.37	$307.41	+$122.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.5¢	$84.73	—	-$86.41
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$264.89	$369.99	+$105.1	56% 13835-10979 (24814)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.6¢	$205.9	$369.99	+$164.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$59	—	-$59
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 40.4¢	$200	—	-$200	39% 197-311 (508)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$249.19	$363.13	+$113.94	55% 15580-12986 (28566)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$201.11	$363.13	+$162.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$48.08	—	-$48.08
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 62.8¢	$293.05	$442.71	+$149.66	55% 17964-14556 (32520)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$160.25	$124.91	-$35.34	66% 99261-51452 (150713)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.7¢	$71.41	—	-$71.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.1¢	$88.85	$124.91	+$36.07
pspspsps5	Upavg 59.9¢	$165.05	$275.64	+$110.59	46% 38195-45104 (83299)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 33.7¢	$76.14	—	-$76.14	57% 7991-6150 (14141)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 64.2¢	$131.99	$205.65	+$73.66	48% 23347-25674 (49021)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$88.1	$83.2	-$4.9	55% 7521-6171 (13692)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.1¢	$40.1	—	-$40.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$48	$83.2	+$35.2
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$59.96	—	-$59.96	58% 38010-27238 (65248)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$64.96	—	-$64.96	34% 18863-35858 (54721)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 59.3¢	$77.45	$130.59	+$53.14	49% 78069-81580 (159649)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489<$100	Upavg 93¢	$83.7	$90	+$6.3	78% 180-50 (230)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$49.6	$70	+$20.4	57% 12104-9084 (21188)

borderlocketCTR

Down

Invested

$2,185.26

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

49%

69-71 (140)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Down

Invested

$1,320.87

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

52%

404-369 (773)

3123123121313CTR

Down

Invested

$1,015.99

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

56%

673-535 (1208)

BoneOhio

Invested

$696.79

Value

$703.83

PnL

+$7.04

Record

74%

102637-36444 (139081)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$570.54

Value

$689.14

PnL

+$118.6

Record

55%

8713-7177 (15890)

Both legs:

Up$45065.3¢+$239.14

Down$120.5325.6¢-$120.53

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Down

Invested

$415.12

Value

—

PnL

-$415.12

Record

53%

2014-1817 (3831)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$314.67

Value

$500.89

PnL

+$186.22

Record

51%

17155-16673 (33828)

Both legs:

Up$277.3355.4¢+$223.56

Down$37.3410.7¢-$37.34

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$384.49

Value

$508.77

PnL

+$124.28

Record

57%

12549-9648 (22197)

Both legs:

Up$288.856.8¢+$219.97

Down$95.6944.8¢-$95.69

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR

Down

Invested

$347.57

Value

—

PnL

-$347.57

Record

50%

635-639 (1274)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$259.4

Value

$300

PnL

+$40.6

Record

50%

5339-5428 (10767)

Both legs:

Up$189.963.3¢+$110.1

Down$69.527.8¢-$69.5

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$271.98

Value

$307.41

PnL

+$35.63

Record

60%

12314-8156 (20470)

Both legs:

Up$185.3760.3¢+$122.04

Down$84.7337.5¢-$86.41

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$264.89

Value

$369.99

PnL

+$105.1

Record

56%

13835-10979 (24814)

Both legs:

Invested

$200

Value

—

PnL

-$200

Record

39%

197-311 (508)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$249.19

Value

$363.13

PnL

+$113.94

Record

55%

15580-12986 (28566)

Both legs:

Up$201.1155.4¢+$162.02

Down$48.0842.5¢-$48.08

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$293.05

Value

$442.71

PnL

+$149.66

Record

55%

17964-14556 (32520)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$160.25

Value

$124.91

PnL

-$35.34

Record

66%

99261-51452 (150713)

Both legs:

Down$71.4138.7¢-$71.41

Up$88.8571.1¢+$36.07

pspspsps5

Invested

$165.05

Value

$275.64

PnL

+$110.59

Record

46%

38195-45104 (83299)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$76.14

Value

—

PnL

-$76.14

Record

57%

7991-6150 (14141)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$131.99

Value

$205.65

PnL

+$73.66

Record

48%

23347-25674 (49021)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$88.1

Value

$83.2

PnL

-$4.9

Record

55%

7521-6171 (13692)

Both legs:

Down$40.141.1¢-$40.1

Up$4857.7¢+$35.2

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.96

Value

—

PnL

-$59.96

Record

58%

38010-27238 (65248)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.96

Value

—

PnL

-$64.96

Record

34%

18863-35858 (54721)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$77.45

Value

$130.59

PnL

+$53.14

Record

49%

78069-81580 (159649)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489<$100

Invested

$83.7

Value

$90

PnL

+$6.3

Record

78%

180-50 (230)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$70

PnL

+$20.4

Record

57%

12104-9084 (21188)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 30 top traders (43%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xaaff0791...3723bf

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793406900

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

Down — $0

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $0

3123123121313

Down — $0

BoneOhio

Up — $703.83

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $0

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded