Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 86%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

$58.35

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 23 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares15,340

Combined PnL+$200.26

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares469

Combined PnL-$141.91

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$9.01	59% 62333-43508 (105841)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.12	74% 102628-36442 (139070)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.87	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 68.4¢	$532.16	$658.08	+$125.92	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$400.98	$243.28	-$157.7	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76¢	$184.99	$243.28	+$58.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$215.99	—	-$215.99
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 84¢	$251.99	$299.99	+$48	48% 23338-25669 (49007)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 82.4¢	$193.44	$220	+$26.56	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 85.2¢	$193.06	$216.19	+$23.13	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 82.8¢	$197.26	$174.08	-$23.18	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 47¢	$137.14	—	-$137.14	57% 7978-6132 (14110)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 75¢	$195.14	$133.41	-$61.74	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 75.2¢	$183.56	$130.93	-$52.63	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$113.18	$122.64	+$9.45	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.3¢	$86.2	$122.64	+$36.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.3¢	$26.98	—	-$26.98
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$73.19	$60	-$13.19	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.9¢	$28.49	—	-$28.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.5¢	$44.7	$60	+$15.3
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 73.6¢	$67.14	$83.15	+$16.02	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$56.89	$71.64	+$14.75	66% 126030-64913 (190943)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 83¢	$53.17	$44	-$9.17	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$45.05	$35.01	+$12.09	64% 23528-12966 (36494)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 81¢	$31.55	$32.37	+$0.82	51% 17149-16668 (33817)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 84¢	$39.06	$46.5	+$7.44	61% 95112-60031 (155143)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 87.6¢	$27.17	$28.2	+$1.03	52% 90518-85062 (175580)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 61¢	$31	$50.82	+$19.82	34% 18858-35853 (54711)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 84.5¢	$7.64	$9.05	+$1.41	49% 78059-81564 (159623)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$1.69	—	-$1.69	63% 52043-30715 (82758)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$3.08	—	-$3.08	59% 23251-16346 (39597)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,999

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$9.01

Record

59%

62333-43508 (105841)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,883.24

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.12

Record

74%

102628-36442 (139070)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,174.83

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.87

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$532.16

Value

$658.08

PnL

+$125.92

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$400.98

Value

$243.28

PnL

-$157.7

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

Both legs:

Down$184.9976¢+$58.29

Up$215.9930.5¢-$215.99

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$251.99

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$48

Record

48%

23338-25669 (49007)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$193.44

Value

$220

PnL

+$26.56

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$193.06

Value

$216.19

PnL

+$23.13

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$197.26

Value

$174.08

PnL

-$23.18

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$137.14

Value

—

PnL

-$137.14

Record

57%

7978-6132 (14110)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$195.14

Value

$133.41

PnL

-$61.74

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$183.56

Value

$130.93

PnL

-$52.63

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$113.18

Value

$122.64

PnL

+$9.45

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

Both legs:

Down$86.270.3¢+$36.43

Up$26.9823.3¢-$26.98

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73.19

Value

$60

PnL

-$13.19

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

Both legs:

Invested

$67.14

Value

$83.15

PnL

+$16.02

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$56.89

Value

$71.64

PnL

+$14.75

Record

66%

126030-64913 (190943)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$53.17

Value

$44

PnL

-$9.17

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$45.05

Value

$35.01

PnL

+$12.09

Record

64%

23528-12966 (36494)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$31.55

Value

$32.37

PnL

+$0.82

Record

51%

17149-16668 (33817)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$39.06

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$7.44

Record

61%

95112-60031 (155143)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$27.17

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$1.03

Record

52%

90518-85062 (175580)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$31

Value

$50.82

PnL

+$19.82

Record

34%

18858-35853 (54711)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$7.64

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$1.41

Record

49%

78059-81564 (159623)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.69

Value

—

PnL

-$1.69

Record

63%

52043-30715 (82758)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Invested

$3.08

Value

—

PnL

-$3.08

Record

59%

23251-16346 (39597)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 23 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf170ec53...54c847

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793406000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $9.0K

+$9.01

BoneOhio

Down — $2.9K

+$29.12

hoodquant

Down — $1.2K

+$11.87

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $658.08

+$125.92

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$157.7

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $299.99

+$48

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $220

+$26.56

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $216.19

+$23.13

ply-pm0

Down — $174.08

wzbbb

Up — $0