Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.6K

Combined PnL

$4.4K

Smart Money Signal

22 of 35 top traders (63%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$27.3K

Total Shares27,287

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,122

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocket	Upavg 57.6¢	$5.6K	$9.8K	+$4.1K	49% 68-71 (139)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Upavg 54.6¢	$3.0K	$3.8K	+$774.01	52% 403-368 (771)
31 3123123121313	Upavg 60.7¢	$2.8K	$3.4K	+$619.43	56% 672-535 (1207)
BoneOhio	Upavg 98.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$28.68	74% 102628-36442 (139070)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 47¢	$897.97	$1.1K	+$214.82	53% 2013-1816 (3829)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 66.1¢	$813.56	$1.1K	+$236.51	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 64.1¢	$999.93	$1.0K	+$4.76	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$781.96	$888.33	+$106.37	51% 17149-16668 (33817)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.5¢	$545.93	$888.33	+$342.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$236.03	—	-$236.03
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e	Upavg 57.1¢	$770.87	$905.45	+$134.58	50% 635-639 (1274)
machinelearned	Upavg 56.9¢	$677.25	$798.79	+$121.54	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 63.4¢	$862.39	—	-$862.39	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489ARB<$100	Upavg 97.5¢	$854.2	$650	-$204.2	78% 180-50 (230)
└ Up leg	Upavg 97.5¢	$633.46	$650	+$16.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.9¢	$220.74	—	-$220.74
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 73.9¢	$468.56	$497.21	+$28.65	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 70.8¢	$386.9	$402.51	+$15.61	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 74¢	$352.58	$382.7	+$30.12	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 32.4¢	$527.54	—	-$525.84	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
pspspsps5	Upavg 66.4¢	$332.67	$338.3	+$5.63	46% 38184-45085 (83269)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 70.5¢	$323.51	$339.03	+$15.52	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$225.21	$257.3	+$32.08	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.2¢	$178.15	$257.3	+$79.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.1¢	$47.07	—	-$47.07
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$220.7	$200	-$20.7	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.9¢	$121.8	$200	+$78.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$98.9	—	-$98.9
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Upavg 84.8¢	$187.99	$219.72	+$33.47	63% 1764-1028 (2792)
NIULAI4	Upavg 88.2¢	$153.37	$147	-$6.37	77% 9464-2855 (12319)
BossgirlCTR	Downavg 35.2¢	$203.92	—	-$203.92	54% 4633-3936 (8569)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 61.2¢	$98.6	$134.61	+$36.01	49% 78059-81564 (159623)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 87¢	$101.16	$99.98	-$1.18	62% 43883-26903 (70786)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87¢	$86.98	$99.98	+$13
└ Down leg	Downavg 13¢	$14.17	—	-$14.17

borderlocket

Invested

$5,626.63

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

49%

68-71 (139)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$2,996.05

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$774.01

Record

52%

403-368 (771)

3123123121313

Invested

$2,802.03

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$619.43

Record

56%

672-535 (1207)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,664.11

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$28.68

Record

74%

102628-36442 (139070)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$897.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$214.82

Record

53%

2013-1816 (3829)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$813.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$236.51

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

ply-pm0

Invested

$999.93

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$4.76

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$781.96

Value

$888.33

PnL

+$106.37

Record

51%

17149-16668 (33817)

Both legs:

Up$545.9361.5¢+$342.4

Down$236.0329¢-$236.03

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e

Invested

$770.87

Value

$905.45

PnL

+$134.58

Record

50%

635-639 (1274)

machinelearned

Invested

$677.25

Value

$798.79

PnL

+$121.54

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$862.39

Value

—

PnL

-$862.39

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489ARB<$100

Invested

$854.2

Value

$650

PnL

-$204.2

Record

78%

180-50 (230)

Both legs:

Up$633.4697.5¢+$16.54

Down$220.7433.9¢-$220.74

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$468.56

Value

$497.21

PnL

+$28.65

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

GoodFallen

Invested

$386.9

Value

$402.51

PnL

+$15.61

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$352.58

Value

$382.7

PnL

+$30.12

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$527.54

Value

—

PnL

-$525.84

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

pspspsps5

Invested

$332.67

Value

$338.3

PnL

+$5.63

Record

46%

38184-45085 (83269)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$323.51

Value

$339.03

PnL

+$15.52

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$225.21

Value

$257.3

PnL

+$32.08

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

Both legs:

Up$178.1569.2¢+$79.15

Down$47.0717.1¢-$47.07

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$220.7

Value

$200

PnL

-$20.7

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

Both legs:

Up$121.860.9¢+$78.2

Down$98.936.6¢-$98.9

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Invested

$187.99

Value

$219.72

PnL

+$33.47

Record

63%

1764-1028 (2792)

NIULAI4

Invested

$153.37

Value

$147

PnL

-$6.37

Record

77%

9464-2855 (12319)

BossgirlCTR

Down

Invested

$203.92

Value

—

PnL

-$203.92

Record

54%

4633-3936 (8569)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$98.6

Value

$134.61

PnL

+$36.01

Record

49%

78059-81564 (159623)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$101.16

Value

$99.98

PnL

-$1.18

Record

62%

43883-26903 (70786)

Both legs:

Up$86.9887¢+$13

Down$14.1713¢-$14.17

Smart Money Signal

22 of 35 top traders (63%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2e412fda...cba01d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793405400

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

Up — $9.8K

+$4.1K

oxe78sh4w98

Up — $3.8K

+$774.01

3123123121313

Up — $3.4K

+$619.43

BoneOhio

Up — $2.7K

+$28.68

0xdc27...afdd9a

Up — $1.1K

+$214.82

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $1.1K

+$236.51

ply-pm0

Up — $1.0K

+$4.76

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$106.37

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e

Up — $905.45

+$134.58

machinelearned

Up — $798.79

+$121.54

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