Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 36 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$20.9K

Total Shares20,946

Combined PnL+$601.1

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares11,256

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 74.8¢	$4.6K	$4.8K	+$155.02	52% 403-368 (771)
31 3123123121313	Downavg 75.1¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$49.38	56% 672-535 (1207)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 70.6¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$93.87	53% 2013-1816 (3829)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 78.8¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$325.81	78% 180-50 (230)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$74.64	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
BO borderlocketCTR	Upavg 28.2¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K	49% 68-71 (139)
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e	Downavg 78.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$21.69	50% 635-639 (1274)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 73.5¢	$999.77	$998.56	-$1.2	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 70.6¢	$963.07	$922.45	-$40.62	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
Bossgirl	Downavg 77.2¢	$783.28	$1.0K	+$231.7	54% 4633-3936 (8569)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 74.7¢	$852.62	$800.79	-$51.82	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 70.8¢	$796.18	$815.32	+$19.14	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
machinelearned	Downavg 74¢	$939.48	$719.89	-$219.59	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$418.49	$367.77	-$50.72	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$254.5	$367.77	+$113.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$163.99	—	-$163.99
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 75.4¢	$355.28	$380.77	+$25.49	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 32.6¢	$653.41	—	-$653.41	77% 9464-2855 (12319)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 68¢	$289.31	$286.02	-$3.3	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 22.4¢	$292.98	—	-$292.98	51% 17149-16668 (33817)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 71¢	$192.57	$195.94	+$3.37	55% 23956-19344 (43300)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 62.8¢	$188.43	$300	+$111.57	48% 23338-25669 (49007)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$166.95	$27.41	-$139.54	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.4¢	$150.45	—	-$150.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.2¢	$16.5	$27.41	+$10.91
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 19.3¢	$96.12	$68	-$28.12	46% 38184-45085 (83269)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$43.64	$68	+$24.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.3¢	$52.48	—	-$52.48
AA aaa221	Downavg 74.4¢	$143.77	$89.99	+$4.52	64% 23528-12966 (36494)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 94¢	$51.7	$55	+$3.3	64% 40197-22999 (63196)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 44.3¢	$45.15	—	-$45.15	57% 7978-6132 (14110)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$4,639.02

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$155.02

Record

52%

403-368 (771)

3123123121313

Down

Invested

$3,588.32

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$49.38

Record

56%

672-535 (1207)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$1,687.44

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$93.87

Record

53%

2013-1816 (3829)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$1,214.11

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$325.81

Record

78%

180-50 (230)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,398.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$74.64

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

borderlocketCTR

Invested

$2,155.57

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

49%

68-71 (139)

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e

Down

Invested

$1,211.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$21.69

Record

50%

635-639 (1274)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$999.77

Value

$998.56

PnL

-$1.2

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$963.07

Value

$922.45

PnL

-$40.62

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$783.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$231.7

Record

54%

4633-3936 (8569)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$852.62

Value

$800.79

PnL

-$51.82

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$796.18

Value

$815.32

PnL

+$19.14

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$939.48

Value

$719.89

PnL

-$219.59

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$418.49

Value

$367.77

PnL

-$50.72

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

Both legs:

Down$254.569.2¢+$113.27

Up$163.9936.4¢-$163.99

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$355.28

Value

$380.77

PnL

+$25.49

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$653.41

Value

—

PnL

-$653.41

Record

77%

9464-2855 (12319)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$289.31

Value

$286.02

PnL

-$3.3

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$292.98

Value

—

PnL

-$292.98

Record

51%

17149-16668 (33817)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$192.57

Value

$195.94

PnL

+$3.37

Record

55%

23956-19344 (43300)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$188.43

Value

$300

PnL

+$111.57

Record

48%

23338-25669 (49007)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$166.95

Value

$27.41

PnL

-$139.54

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

Both legs:

Up$150.4530.4¢-$150.45

Down$16.560.2¢+$10.91

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$96.12

Value

$68

PnL

-$28.12

Record

46%

38184-45085 (83269)

Both legs:

Down$43.6464.2¢+$24.36

Up$52.4819.3¢-$52.48

aaa221

Down

Invested

$143.77

Value

$89.99

PnL

+$4.52

Record

64%

23528-12966 (36494)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$51.7

Value

$55

PnL

+$3.3

Record

64%

40197-22999 (63196)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$45.15

Value

—

PnL

-$45.15

Record

57%

7978-6132 (14110)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 36 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x46ad5803...ef0a55

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793405100

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $4.8K

+$155.02

3123123121313

Down — $3.6K

+$49.38

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $1.8K

+$93.87

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $1.5K

+$325.81

ply-pm0

Down — $1.3K

-$74.64

borderlocket

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.2K

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e

Down — $1.2K

-$21.69

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $998.56

-$1.2

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $922.45

-$40.62

Bossgirl

Down — $1.0K

+$231.7

Trade on Polymarket