Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.2K

Combined PnL

$-14.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 40 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$32.8K

Total Shares32,770

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares28,931

Combined PnL$-18.8K

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 54.1¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$117.22	52% 403-368 (771)
31 3123123121313	Downavg 50.6¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$108.81	56% 672-535 (1207)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 40.4¢	$1.7K	$4.0K	+$2.3K	78% 180-50 (230)
BO borderlocketCTR	Upavg 40¢	$6.4K	—	$-6.4K	49% 68-71 (139)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 98.6¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$46.26	59% 62333-43508 (105841)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 64.3¢	$4.7K	—	$-4.7K	77% 9464-2855 (12319)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 43.8¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$393.81	53% 2013-1816 (3829)
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR	Upavg 48.6¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K	50% 635-639 (1274)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 62.8¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$280.4	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 52.8¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$97.02	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 51.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$35.14	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 46.9¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
Bossgirl	Downavg 54¢	$808.94	$1.5K	+$688	54% 4633-3936 (8569)
machinelearned	Downavg 56.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$121.87	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 41.3¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	51% 17149-16668 (33817)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 50.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$29.25	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 47.5¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 64.3¢	$679.69	$636.61	-$43.08	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 57.4¢	$511.33	—	-$511.33	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
SI sir-upalotCTR	Upavg 53.3¢	$379.53	—	-$379.53	55% 23956-19344 (43300)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 29.2¢	$128.31	$183.69	+$55.38	46% 38184-45085 (83269)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.5¢	$44.92	$183.69	+$138.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$83.39	—	-$83.39
BoneOhio	Downavg 90.5¢	$183.1	$202.22	+$19.12	74% 102628-36442 (139070)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 38¢	$157.91	$211.2	+$53.29	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$80.15	$211.2	+$131.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$77.76	—	-$77.76
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 89¢	$170.09	$150	-$20.09	62% 43883-26903 (70786)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 77.8¢	$157.15	$142.28	-$14.87	66% 126030-64913 (190943)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$6,114.47

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$117.22

Record

52%

403-368 (771)

3123123121313

Down

Invested

$5,027.77

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$108.81

Record

56%

672-535 (1207)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$1,712.87

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

78%

180-50 (230)

borderlocketCTR

Invested

$6,438.6

Value

—

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

49%

68-71 (139)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,291.75

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$46.26

Record

59%

62333-43508 (105841)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$4,685.63

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

77%

9464-2855 (12319)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$2,207.67

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$393.81

Record

53%

2013-1816 (3829)

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR

Invested

$2,523.97

Value

—

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

50%

635-639 (1274)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$1,894.63

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$280.4

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$2,032.77

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$97.02

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$1,618.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$35.14

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,802.49

Value

—

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$808.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$688

Record

54%

4633-3936 (8569)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$1,277.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$121.87

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$1,163.71

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

17149-16668 (33817)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$1,244.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$29.25

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$1,012.85

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$679.69

Value

$636.61

PnL

-$43.08

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$511.33

Value

—

PnL

-$511.33

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

sir-upalotCTR

Invested

$379.53

Value

—

PnL

-$379.53

Record

55%

23956-19344 (43300)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$128.31

Value

$183.69

PnL

+$55.38

Record

46%

38184-45085 (83269)

Both legs:

Down$44.9224.5¢+$138.77

Up$83.3929.2¢-$83.39

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$183.1

Value

$202.22

PnL

+$19.12

Record

74%

102628-36442 (139070)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$157.91

Value

$211.2

PnL

+$53.29

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

Both legs:

Down$80.1538¢+$131.05

Up$77.7660.2¢-$77.76

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$170.09

Value

$150

PnL

-$20.09

Record

62%

43883-26903 (70786)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$157.15

Value

$142.28

PnL

-$14.87

Record

66%

126030-64913 (190943)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 40 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc9fc0fa1...981d70

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793404800

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $6.0K

-$117.22

3123123121313

Down — $5.1K

+$108.81

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $4.0K

+$2.3K

borderlocket

CTR

Up — $0

$-6.4K

0x50f7

Down — $3.3K

+$46.26

NIULAI4

CTR

Up — $0

$-4.7K

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $2.6K

+$393.81

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.5K

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $2.2K

+$280.4

ply-pm0

Down — $1.9K

-$97.02

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