Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 61%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 30 top traders (63%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares22,213

Combined PnL$-8.1K

Down19 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares21,192

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Up — 37%Down — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocketCTR	Upavg 36.2¢	$7.5K	—	$-7.5K	49% 68-71 (139)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 64.5¢	$9.2K	$9.1K	-$128.54	52% 403-368 (771)
31 3123123121313ARB<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$7.8K	$7.4K	-$398.53	56% 672-535 (1207)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.8¢	$2.9K	—	$-2.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$4.9K	$7.4K	+$2.5K
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$8.74	53% 2013-1816 (3829)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.4¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$1.9K	$3.4K	+$1.4K
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 56.6¢	$1.6K	$2.7K	+$1.1K	78% 180-50 (230)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	-$938.44	65% 4082-2215 (6297)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$827.4	$1.4K	+$545.31
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 62.8¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$22.53	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 65.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$27.52	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
machinelearned	Downavg 66.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$155.39	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
Bossgirl	Downavg 70.7¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$423.56	54% 4633-3936 (8569)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$29.6	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.7¢	$384.67	—	-$384.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$726.24	$1.1K	+$355.07
HO hoodquant	Downavg 95.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$52.28	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 66.1¢	$1.2K	$935.64	-$228.97	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 43.9¢	$915.4	$756.57	-$156.93	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.9¢	$487.72	—	-$488.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$425.48	$756.57	+$331.09
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 69¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$122.52	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$887.21	$1.3K	+$398.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.4¢	$275.93	—	-$275.93
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 86.8¢	$883.94	$678.08	-$205.87	77% 9464-2855 (12319)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.8¢	$588.59	$678.08	+$89.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.7¢	$295.35	—	-$295.35
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$507.31	$655.59	+$148.27	51% 17149-16668 (33817)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28¢	$224	—	-$224
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$283.31	$655.59	+$372.27
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$309.17	$298.56	-$10.61	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$130.95	—	-$130.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.7¢	$178.22	$298.56	+$120.34
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$329.82	$337.37	+$7.54	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$154.93	—	-$154.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$174.9	$337.37	+$162.47
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 46¢	$191.88	$262	+$70.12	46% 38184-45085 (83269)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$71.37	—	-$71.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$120.51	$262	+$141.49
ohioismCTR	Upavg 32.9¢	$142.35	—	-$142.34	64% 40197-22999 (63196)
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 35¢	$131.25	—	-$131.25	74% 102628-36442 (139070)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 63¢	$189	$299.99	+$111	48% 23338-25669 (49007)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 66¢	$202.58	$192.38	-$10.2	55% 23956-19344 (43300)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$183.42	$219.89	+$36.47	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$68.31	—	-$68.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.3¢	$115.11	$219.89	+$104.78

borderlocketCTR

Invested

$7,468.54

Value

—

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

49%

68-71 (139)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$9,196.76

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$128.54

Record

52%

403-368 (771)

3123123121313ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$7,805.17

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$398.53

Record

56%

672-535 (1207)

Both legs:

Up$2,877.4639.8¢$-2.9K

Down$4,927.7166.5¢+$2.5K

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Down

Invested

$3,352.62

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$8.74

Record

53%

2013-1816 (3829)

Both legs:

Up$1,412.1339.4¢$-1.4K

Down$1,940.557.7¢+$1.4K

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$1,610.68

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

78%

180-50 (230)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$2,311.15

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$938.44

Record

65%

4082-2215 (6297)

Both legs:

Up$1,483.7546.5¢$-1.5K

Down$827.460.3¢+$545.31

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,750.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$22.53

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,730.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$27.52

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$1,181.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$155.39

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$1,022.8

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$423.56

Record

54%

4633-3936 (8569)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,110.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$29.6

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

Both legs:

Up$384.6738.7¢-$384.67

Down$726.2467.2¢+$355.07

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,086.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$52.28

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$1,164.61

Value

$935.64

PnL

-$228.97

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$915.4

Value

$756.57

PnL

-$156.93

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

Both legs:

Up$487.7243.9¢-$488.02

Down$425.4856.2¢+$331.09

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,163.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$122.52

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

Both legs:

Down$887.2169¢+$398.45

Up$275.9337.4¢-$275.93

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$883.94

Value

$678.08

PnL

-$205.87

Record

77%

9464-2855 (12319)

Both legs:

Down$588.5986.8¢+$89.49

Up$295.3518.7¢-$295.35

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$507.31

Value

$655.59

PnL

+$148.27

Record

51%

17149-16668 (33817)

Both legs:

Up$22428¢-$224

Down$283.3143.2¢+$372.27

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$309.17

Value

$298.56

PnL

-$10.61

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

Both legs:

Up$130.9535.1¢-$130.95

Down$178.2259.7¢+$120.34

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$329.82

Value

$337.37

PnL

+$7.54

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

Both legs:

Up$154.9351.1¢-$154.93

Down$174.951.8¢+$162.47

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$191.88

Value

$262

PnL

+$70.12

Record

46%

38184-45085 (83269)

Both legs:

Up$71.3724.2¢-$71.37

Down$120.5146¢+$141.49

ohioismCTR

Invested

$142.35

Value

—

PnL

-$142.34

Record

64%

40197-22999 (63196)

BoneOhioCTR

Invested

$131.25

Value

—

PnL

-$131.25

Record

74%

102628-36442 (139070)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$189

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$111

Record

48%

23338-25669 (49007)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$202.58

Value

$192.38

PnL

-$10.2

Record

55%

23956-19344 (43300)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$183.42

Value

$219.89

PnL

+$36.47

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

Both legs:

Up$68.3143.8¢-$68.31

Down$115.1152.3¢+$104.78

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 30 top traders (63%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf8969d4e...09b0ef

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793403300

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

CTR

Up — $0

$-7.5K

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $9.1K

3123123121313

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $2.7K

+$1.1K

Atomforge

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$938.44

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.7K

-$22.53

ply-pm0

Down — $1.7K

-$27.52

machinelearned

Down — $1.3K

+$155.39

Bossgirl

Down — $1.4K

+$423.56

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