Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Signal

22 of 28 top traders (79%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares14,809

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares850

Combined PnL-$172.87

Up — 79%Down — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocket	Upavg 62.5¢	$3.4K	$5.4K	+$2.0K	49% 68-71 (139)
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$548.76	52% 403-368 (771)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$741.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 11¢	$193.08	—	-$193.08
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$963.37	$1.0K	+$79.4	65% 4082-2215 (6297)
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.6¢	$332.22	—	-$332.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$631.15	$1.0K	+$411.63
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$28.36	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.85	59% 62333-43508 (105841)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$23.1	74% 102628-36442 (139070)
31 3123123121313ARB<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$606.97	$712.51	+$105.54	56% 672-535 (1207)
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.6¢	$157.43	—	-$157.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.1¢	$449.53	$712.51	+$262.98
pspspsps5	Upavg 96.3¢	$822.77	$820.77	-$2	46% 38184-45085 (83269)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 75.7¢	$901.82	$955.07	+$53.24	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.7¢	$722.76	$955.07	+$232.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.8¢	$179.06	—	-$179.06
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 75.1¢	$614.9	$572.35	-$42.55	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$521.7	$653.39	+$131.68	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$370.77	$653.39	+$282.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.7¢	$150.94	—	-$150.94
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$280.48	$336.81	+$56.33	53% 2013-1816 (3829)
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.1¢	$68.04	—	-$68.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.1¢	$212.44	$336.81	+$124.37
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 82.5¢	$485.92	$539.03	+$53.11	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 69.6¢	$413.69	$448.66	+$34.97	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 72.9¢	$375.03	$420.41	+$45.39	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 76.2¢	$277.83	$305.1	+$27.27	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.2¢	$232.51	$305.1	+$72.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.2¢	$45.32	—	-$45.32
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 91.4¢	$251.26	$265.06	+$13.81	51% 17149-16668 (33817)
└ Up leg	Upavg 91.4¢	$242.26	$265.06	+$22.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.5¢	$9	—	-$9
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 73.6¢	$246.03	$235.88	-$10.15	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.6¢	$173.71	$235.88	+$62.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 41¢	$72.32	—	-$72.32
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$212.85	$238.94	+$26.08	59% 23251-16346 (39597)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$123.73	$238.94	+$115.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.2¢	$89.13	—	-$89.13
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 81.2¢	$237.58	$230.25	-$7.33	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.2¢	$186.98	$230.25	+$43.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.3¢	$50.6	—	-$50.6
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 94.3¢	$283.01	$300	+$16.99	48% 23338-25669 (49007)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489CTR<$100	Downavg 7.4¢	$29.13	—	-$29.13	78% 180-50 (230)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 95¢	$142.5	$150	+$7.5	56% 58191-44916 (103107)
BossgirlCTR<$100	Downavg 12.7¢	$25.85	—	-$25.85	54% 4633-3936 (8569)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 50¢	$60	$120	+$60	57% 7978-6132 (14110)

borderlocket

Invested

$3,392.09

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

49%

68-71 (139)

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Invested

$1,684.87

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$548.76

Record

52%

403-368 (771)

Both legs:

Up$1,491.7966.8¢+$741.83

Down$193.0811¢-$193.08

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$963.37

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$79.4

Record

65%

4082-2215 (6297)

Both legs:

Down$332.229.6¢-$332.22

Up$631.1560.5¢+$411.63

hoodquant

Invested

$1,687.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$28.36

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

0x50f7

Invested

$1,568.66

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.85

Record

59%

62333-43508 (105841)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,286.7

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$23.1

Record

74%

102628-36442 (139070)

3123123121313ARB<$100

Invested

$606.97

Value

$712.51

PnL

+$105.54

Record

56%

672-535 (1207)

Both legs:

Down$157.4311.6¢-$157.43

Up$449.5363.1¢+$262.98

pspspsps5

Invested

$822.77

Value

$820.77

PnL

-$2

Record

46%

38184-45085 (83269)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$901.82

Value

$955.07

PnL

+$53.24

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

Both legs:

Up$722.7675.7¢+$232.31

Down$179.0637.8¢-$179.06

ply-pm0

Invested

$614.9

Value

$572.35

PnL

-$42.55

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$521.7

Value

$653.39

PnL

+$131.68

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

Both legs:

Up$370.7756.7¢+$282.62

Down$150.9443.7¢-$150.94

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$280.48

Value

$336.81

PnL

+$56.33

Record

53%

2013-1816 (3829)

Both legs:

Down$68.049.1¢-$68.04

Up$212.4463.1¢+$124.37

Bonereaper

Invested

$485.92

Value

$539.03

PnL

+$53.11

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$413.69

Value

$448.66

PnL

+$34.97

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

GoodFallen

Invested

$375.03

Value

$420.41

PnL

+$45.39

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$277.83

Value

$305.1

PnL

+$27.27

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

Both legs:

Up$232.5176.2¢+$72.59

Down$45.3217.2¢-$45.32

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$251.26

Value

$265.06

PnL

+$13.81

Record

51%

17149-16668 (33817)

Both legs:

Up$242.2691.4¢+$22.81

Down$94.5¢-$9

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$246.03

Value

$235.88

PnL

-$10.15

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

Both legs:

Up$173.7173.6¢+$62.17

Down$72.3241¢-$72.32

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$212.85

Value

$238.94

PnL

+$26.08

Record

59%

23251-16346 (39597)

Both legs:

Up$123.7351.8¢+$115.21

Down$89.1357.2¢-$89.13

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$237.58

Value

$230.25

PnL

-$7.33

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

Both legs:

Up$186.9881.2¢+$43.26

Down$50.638.3¢-$50.6

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$283.01

Value

$300

PnL

+$16.99

Record

48%

23338-25669 (49007)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.13

Value

—

PnL

-$29.13

Record

78%

180-50 (230)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$142.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$7.5

Record

56%

58191-44916 (103107)

BossgirlCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.85

Value

—

PnL

-$25.85

Record

54%

4633-3936 (8569)

wzbbb

Invested

$60

Value

$120

PnL

+$60

Record

57%

7978-6132 (14110)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 28 top traders (79%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa0f123f7...9af34c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793403000

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

Up — $5.4K

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $1.7K

+$28.36

0x50f7

Up — $1.6K

+$15.85

BoneOhio

Up — $2.3K

+$23.1

3123123121313

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$105.54

pspspsps5

Up — $820.77

-$2

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$53.24

ply-pm0

Up — $572.35

-$42.55

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