Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.9K

Combined PnL

$-6.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 33 top traders (61%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$30.3K

Total Shares30,343

Combined PnL-$478.81

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares21,008

Combined PnL$-6.2K

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 71.7¢	$8.0K	$7.3K	-$682.59	52% 403-368 (771)
31 3123123121313	Downavg 72.3¢	$7.2K	$6.9K	-$228.17	56% 672-535 (1207)
BO borderlocketCTR	Upavg 29¢	$5.5K	—	$-5.5K	49% 68-71 (139)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$30.88	59% 62333-43508 (105841)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$17.42	74% 102628-36442 (139070)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$336.42	65% 4082-2215 (6297)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.5¢	$1.5K	$2.5K	+$953.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.7¢	$617.49	—	-$617.49
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 58.9¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$116.63	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 37.2¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$198.55	51% 17149-16668 (33817)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$626.59	$1.5K	+$913.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$714.96	—	-$714.96
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$7	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.3¢	$769.13	$1.2K	+$390.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.7¢	$397.35	—	-$397.35
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 56.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$27.95	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.6¢	$664.36	$1.2K	+$508.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.7¢	$480.89	—	-$480.89
Bossgirl	Downavg 76¢	$984.93	$1.3K	+$310.34	54% 4633-3936 (8569)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$1.5K	$506.06	$-1.0K	53% 2013-1816 (3829)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.5¢	$316.53	$506.06	+$189.53
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 68.3¢	$1.0K	$906.02	-$122.79	54% 8100-6790 (14890)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74.2¢	$1.0K	$941.24	-$85.76	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 92.8¢	$733.23	$790	+$56.77	78% 180-50 (230)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 57.1¢	$759.97	$780.2	+$20.23	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
NIULAI4	Downavg 93.3¢	$817.34	$860	+$42.66	77% 9464-2855 (12319)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 65.6¢	$684.79	$724.3	+$39.52	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$667.08	$514.97	-$152.11	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$330.08	$514.97	+$184.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$337	—	-$337
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 57¢	$689.13	$250	-$439.13	55% 49771-39994 (89765)
└ Down leg	Downavg 94¢	$235	$250	+$15
└ Up leg	Upavg 57¢	$454.13	—	-$454.13
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 35.6¢	$170.74	$322.98	+$152.24	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.6¢	$114.94	$322.98	+$208.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.9¢	$55.8	—	-$55.8
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 61.8¢	$298.42	$303.59	+$5.17	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 49¢	$213.8	—	-$213.8	57% 7978-6132 (14110)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$186.12	$188	+$1.88	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$333.04	$129.35	-$203.69	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.7¢	$90.22	$129.35	+$39.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$242.82	—	-$242.82

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$8,005.69

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$682.59

Record

52%

403-368 (771)

3123123121313

Down

Invested

$7,150.56

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$228.17

Record

56%

672-535 (1207)

borderlocketCTR

Invested

$5,549.35

Value

—

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

49%

68-71 (139)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,057.13

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$30.88

Record

59%

62333-43508 (105841)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,017.42

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$17.42

Record

74%

102628-36442 (139070)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,141.8

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$336.42

Record

65%

4082-2215 (6297)

Both legs:

Down$1,524.3161.5¢+$953.91

Up$617.4914.7¢-$617.49

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$2,646.69

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$116.63

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$1,341.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$198.55

Record

51%

17149-16668 (33817)

Both legs:

Down$626.5940.7¢+$913.52

Up$714.9637.2¢-$714.96

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,166.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$7

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

Both legs:

Down$769.1366.3¢+$390.35

Up$397.3520.7¢-$397.35

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,145.25

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$27.95

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

Both legs:

Down$664.3656.6¢+$508.85

Up$480.8934.7¢-$480.89

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$984.93

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$310.34

Record

54%

4633-3936 (8569)

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$1,529.49

Value

$506.06

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

53%

2013-1816 (3829)

Both legs:

Up$1,212.9636.7¢$-1.2K

Down$316.5362.5¢+$189.53

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$1,028.81

Value

$906.02

PnL

-$122.79

Record

54%

8100-6790 (14890)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$1,027

Value

$941.24

PnL

-$85.76

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$733.23

Value

$790

PnL

+$56.77

Record

78%

180-50 (230)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$759.97

Value

$780.2

PnL

+$20.23

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$817.34

Value

$860

PnL

+$42.66

Record

77%

9464-2855 (12319)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$684.79

Value

$724.3

PnL

+$39.52

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$667.08

Value

$514.97

PnL

-$152.11

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

Both legs:

Down$330.0864.1¢+$184.89

Up$33741.4¢-$337

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$689.13

Value

$250

PnL

-$439.13

Record

55%

49771-39994 (89765)

Both legs:

Down$23594¢+$15

Up$454.1357¢-$454.13

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$170.74

Value

$322.98

PnL

+$152.24

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

Both legs:

Down$114.9435.6¢+$208.04

Up$55.812.9¢-$55.8

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$298.42

Value

$303.59

PnL

+$5.17

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$213.8

Value

—

PnL

-$213.8

Record

57%

7978-6132 (14110)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$186.12

Value

$188

PnL

+$1.88

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$333.04

Value

$129.35

PnL

-$203.69

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

Both legs:

Down$90.2269.7¢+$39.13

Up$242.8255.4¢-$242.82

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 33 top traders (61%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x250870fe...9c3289

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793402700

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $7.3K

-$682.59

3123123121313

Down — $6.9K

-$228.17

borderlocket

CTR

Up — $0

$-5.5K

0x50f7

Down — $3.1K

+$30.88

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

-$17.42

Atomforge

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$336.42

ply-pm0

Down — $2.8K

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

-$7

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$27.95

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