Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$-5.3K

Smart Money Signal

29 of 34 top traders (85%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up29 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares17,444

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares11,606

Combined PnL$-4.1K

Up — 85%Down — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Upavg 69.2¢	$4.1K	$3.1K	-$990.51	52% 403-368 (771)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	74% 102628-36442 (139070)
31 3123123121313	Upavg 75.7¢	$3.3K	$2.4K	-$934.6	56% 672-535 (1207)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 73¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$277.3	53% 2013-1816 (3829)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$333.49	65% 4082-2215 (6297)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.8¢	$892.8	$1.3K	+$386.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.6¢	$720.05	—	-$720.05
machinelearned	Upavg 66.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$100.15	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
BO borderlocketCTR	Downavg 34.7¢	$3.9K	—	$-3.9K	49% 68-71 (139)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 58.7¢	$674.86	$806.21	+$131.34	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 68.1¢	$737.63	$745.27	+$7.63	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
BO bosona	Upavg 65.5¢	$636.18	$500	-$136.18	55% 49771-39994 (89765)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$519.33	$531	+$11.67	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$254.83	$531	+$276.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$264.5	—	-$264.5
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 68.9¢	$355.47	$506.62	+$151.15	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 58.8¢	$342.55	$459.6	+$117.05	51% 17149-16668 (33817)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 61.6¢	$354.01	$399.74	+$45.73	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59.3¢	$311.32	$343.44	+$32.12	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 58¢	$264.8	$241.79	-$23.01	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$140.23	$241.79	+$101.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.3¢	$124.57	—	-$124.57
ohioism	Upavg 83.8¢	$209.5	$250	+$40.5	64% 40197-22999 (63196)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 79.3¢	$264.09	$225	-$38.04	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$215.7	$217.88	+$2.18	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 65.4¢	$170.71	$204.4	+$33.69	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
pspspsps5	Upavg 58.7¢	$135.75	$199.19	+$63.44	46% 38184-45085 (83269)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 83.5¢	$167	$200	+$33	58% 60661-44284 (104945)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 66.2¢	$137.64	$170	+$32.36	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$139.08	$131.75	-$7.33	34% 18858-35853 (54711)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.3¢	$72.92	$131.75	+$58.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$66.16	—	-$66.16
IM ImgonnadoitCTR<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$72.28	—	-$72.28	39% 191-302 (493)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$4,092.95

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$990.51

Record

52%

403-368 (771)

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

74%

102628-36442 (139070)

3123123121313

Invested

$3,286.05

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$934.6

Record

56%

672-535 (1207)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$1,663.08

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$277.3

Record

53%

2013-1816 (3829)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$1,612.85

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$333.49

Record

65%

4082-2215 (6297)

Both legs:

Up$892.869.8¢+$386.56

Down$720.0524.6¢-$720.05

machinelearned

Invested

$1,227.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$100.15

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

borderlocketCTR

Down

Invested

$3,944.94

Value

—

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

49%

68-71 (139)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$674.86

Value

$806.21

PnL

+$131.34

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

ply-pm0

Invested

$737.63

Value

$745.27

PnL

+$7.63

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

bosona

Invested

$636.18

Value

$500

PnL

-$136.18

Record

55%

49771-39994 (89765)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$519.33

Value

$531

PnL

+$11.67

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

Both legs:

Up$254.8348¢+$276.17

Down$264.557.6¢-$264.5

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$355.47

Value

$506.62

PnL

+$151.15

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

gansinimen

Invested

$342.55

Value

$459.6

PnL

+$117.05

Record

51%

17149-16668 (33817)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$354.01

Value

$399.74

PnL

+$45.73

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

GoodFallen

Invested

$311.32

Value

$343.44

PnL

+$32.12

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$264.8

Value

$241.79

PnL

-$23.01

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

Both legs:

Up$140.2358¢+$101.56

Down$124.5745.3¢-$124.57

ohioism

Invested

$209.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$40.5

Record

64%

40197-22999 (63196)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$264.09

Value

$225

PnL

-$38.04

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

hoodquant

Invested

$215.7

Value

$217.88

PnL

+$2.18

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

Bonereaper

Invested

$170.71

Value

$204.4

PnL

+$33.69

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

pspspsps5

Invested

$135.75

Value

$199.19

PnL

+$63.44

Record

46%

38184-45085 (83269)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$167

Value

$200

PnL

+$33

Record

58%

60661-44284 (104945)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$137.64

Value

$170

PnL

+$32.36

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

Little-bigARB<$100

Invested

$139.08

Value

$131.75

PnL

-$7.33

Record

34%

18858-35853 (54711)

Both legs:

Up$72.9255.3¢+$58.83

Down$66.1651.1¢-$66.16

ImgonnadoitCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72.28

Value

—

PnL

-$72.28

Record

39%

191-302 (493)

Smart Money Signal

29 of 34 top traders (85%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xb2b1de4e...ed6804

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793402400

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Up — $3.1K

-$990.51

BoneOhio

Up — $3.5K

+$35

3123123121313

Up — $2.4K

-$934.6

0xdc27...afdd9a

Up — $1.4K

-$277.3

Atomforge

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$333.49

machinelearned

Up — $1.3K

+$100.15

borderlocket

CTR

Down — $0

$-3.9K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $806.21

+$131.34

ply-pm0

Up — $745.27

+$7.63

bosona

Up — $500

-$136.18

Trade on Polymarket