Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 61%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$39.01

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 29 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,704

Combined PnL+$130.78

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,227

Combined PnL-$91.77

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$4.69	59% 62333-43508 (105841)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 73¢	$322.3	$416.47	+$94.18	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 89¢	$282.37	$307.63	+$25.26	59% 23251-16346 (39597)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 89.9¢	$242.44	$248.04	+$5.6	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$186.16	$163.07	-$23.09	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.6¢	$137.95	$163.07	+$25.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.9¢	$48.21	—	-$48.21
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 81.9¢	$206.97	$221.28	+$14.31	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 77.7¢	$207.39	$162.7	-$44.69	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.7¢	$126.35	$162.7	+$36.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.1¢	$81.04	—	-$81.04
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 78.5¢	$152.07	$154.99	+$2.93	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$155.36	$161	+$5.64	57% 7978-6132 (14110)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$90.02	$161	+$70.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$65.34	—	-$65.34
BO bosona	Downavg 99.4¢	$159.12	$132.19	-$26.93	55% 49771-39994 (89765)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 85.8¢	$110.29	$119.99	+$9.7	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 84.1¢	$80.07	$70.93	-$9.14	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 96¢	$84.48	$88	+$3.52	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 92.6¢	$59.69	$64.45	+$4.76	61% 95112-60031 (155143)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 88¢	$63.76	$51.26	+$5.79	64% 23528-12966 (36494)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 81.6¢	$43.95	$53.88	+$9.93	66% 126030-64913 (190943)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95¢	$37.34	$26.06	-$11.28	52% 90518-85062 (175580)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$18	—	-$18	48% 23338-25669 (49007)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$8.89	—	-$8.89	46% 38184-45085 (83269)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 83¢	$25.2	$20	-$5.2	55% 23956-19344 (43300)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$3.06	—	-$3.06	49% 78059-81564 (159623)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 91.9¢	$18.99	$20.66	+$1.67	74% 102628-36442 (139070)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 95¢	$18.99	$19.99	+$1	64% 40197-22999 (63196)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 17.1¢	$30.91	—	-$30.91	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$14.2	—	-$14.2	56% 58191-44916 (103107)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$4,683.32

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$4.69

Record

59%

62333-43508 (105841)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$322.3

Value

$416.47

PnL

+$94.18

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$282.37

Value

$307.63

PnL

+$25.26

Record

59%

23251-16346 (39597)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$242.44

Value

$248.04

PnL

+$5.6

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$186.16

Value

$163.07

PnL

-$23.09

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

Both legs:

Down$137.9584.6¢+$25.12

Up$48.216.9¢-$48.21

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$206.97

Value

$221.28

PnL

+$14.31

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.39

Value

$162.7

PnL

-$44.69

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

Both legs:

Down$126.3577.7¢+$36.35

Up$81.0419.1¢-$81.04

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$152.07

Value

$154.99

PnL

+$2.93

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.36

Value

$161

PnL

+$5.64

Record

57%

7978-6132 (14110)

Both legs:

Down$90.0255.9¢+$70.98

Up$65.3454¢-$65.34

bosona

Down

Invested

$159.12

Value

$132.19

PnL

-$26.93

Record

55%

49771-39994 (89765)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$110.29

Value

$119.99

PnL

+$9.7

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$80.07

Value

$70.93

PnL

-$9.14

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$84.48

Value

$88

PnL

+$3.52

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$59.69

Value

$64.45

PnL

+$4.76

Record

61%

95112-60031 (155143)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$63.76

Value

$51.26

PnL

+$5.79

Record

64%

23528-12966 (36494)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$43.95

Value

$53.88

PnL

+$9.93

Record

66%

126030-64913 (190943)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$37.34

Value

$26.06

PnL

-$11.28

Record

52%

90518-85062 (175580)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$18

Value

—

PnL

-$18

Record

48%

23338-25669 (49007)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$8.89

Value

—

PnL

-$8.89

Record

46%

38184-45085 (83269)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$25.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$5.2

Record

55%

23956-19344 (43300)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

—

PnL

-$3.06

Record

49%

78059-81564 (159623)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$18.99

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$1.67

Record

74%

102628-36442 (139070)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$18.99

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$1

Record

64%

40197-22999 (63196)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$30.91

Value

—

PnL

-$30.91

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

—

PnL

-$14.2

Record

56%

58191-44916 (103107)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 29 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x406503bb...c1fa50

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793402100

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $4.7K

+$4.69

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $416.47

+$94.18

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $307.63

+$25.26

Bonereaper

Down — $248.04

+$5.6

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$23.09

ply-pm0

Down — $221.28

+$14.31

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$44.69

GoodFallen

Down — $154.99

+$2.93

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.64

bosona

Down — $132.19

-$26.93

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