Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$461.23

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 27 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,644

Combined PnL+$710.23

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,835

Combined PnL-$249

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.31	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
TE Telawin	Downavg 48.2¢	$500	$1.0K	+$538.2	50% 345-339 (684)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 79.7¢	$341.42	$388.22	+$46.8	59% 23251-16346 (39597)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 68.7¢	$362.7	$376.98	+$14.28	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 74.7¢	$210.47	$256.6	+$46.12	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 81.5¢	$206.19	$236.48	+$30.29	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 68.7¢	$213.45	$212.02	-$1.43	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 29.7¢	$166.9	$158	-$8.9	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.7¢	$87.9	—	-$87.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$79	$158	+$79
machinelearned	Downavg 94.5¢	$241.91	$200	-$41.91	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$171.46	$201.31	+$29.85	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$119.73	$201.31	+$81.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$51.73	—	-$51.73
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 63.4¢	$145.91	$186.76	+$40.86	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 47.7¢	$162.74	—	-$162.74	55% 49771-39994 (89765)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 86.6¢	$150.35	$112.16	-$38.19	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 38¢	$70.89	$40	-$30.89	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38¢	$41.79	—	-$41.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.7¢	$29.1	$40	+$10.9
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$69.9	$50	-$19.9	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.4¢	$40.7	$50	+$9.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$29.2	—	-$29.2
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Downavg 65.1¢	$57.16	$50.41	-$6.75	34% 18858-35853 (54711)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$24.33	—	-$24.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.1¢	$32.83	$50.41	+$17.58
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 88¢	$60.4	$68.64	+$8.24	58% 60661-44284 (104945)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$39.36	—	-$39.36	57% 7978-6132 (14110)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$38.61	$39	+$0.39	61% 95112-60031 (155143)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 83.3¢	$40.06	$34.54	+$7.91	64% 23528-12966 (36494)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$34.95	$25.77	-$9.18	55% 23956-19344 (43300)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87.3¢	$42.06	$45.57	+$3.51	66% 126030-64913 (190943)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 3.7¢	$22.17	—	-$22.17	48% 23338-25669 (49007)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 53¢	$13.25	$25	+$11.75	58% 51036-37181 (88217)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$3.12	—	-$3.12	63% 52043-30715 (82758)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,382.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.31

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

Telawin

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$538.2

Record

50%

345-339 (684)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$341.42

Value

$388.22

PnL

+$46.8

Record

59%

23251-16346 (39597)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$362.7

Value

$376.98

PnL

+$14.28

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$210.47

Value

$256.6

PnL

+$46.12

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$206.19

Value

$236.48

PnL

+$30.29

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$213.45

Value

$212.02

PnL

-$1.43

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$166.9

Value

$158

PnL

-$8.9

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

Both legs:

Invested

$241.91

Value

$200

PnL

-$41.91

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$171.46

Value

$201.31

PnL

+$29.85

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

Both legs:

Down$119.7359.5¢+$81.58

Up$51.7348.2¢-$51.73

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$145.91

Value

$186.76

PnL

+$40.86

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$162.74

Value

—

PnL

-$162.74

Record

55%

49771-39994 (89765)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$150.35

Value

$112.16

PnL

-$38.19

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$70.89

Value

$40

PnL

-$30.89

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

Both legs:

Up$41.7938¢-$41.79

Down$29.172.7¢+$10.9

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$69.9

Value

$50

PnL

-$19.9

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

Both legs:

Invested

$57.16

Value

$50.41

PnL

-$6.75

Record

34%

18858-35853 (54711)

Both legs:

Up$24.3350.7¢-$24.33

Down$32.8365.1¢+$17.58

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$60.4

Value

$68.64

PnL

+$8.24

Record

58%

60661-44284 (104945)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$39.36

Value

—

PnL

-$39.36

Record

57%

7978-6132 (14110)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$38.61

Value

$39

PnL

+$0.39

Record

61%

95112-60031 (155143)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$40.06

Value

$34.54

PnL

+$7.91

Record

64%

23528-12966 (36494)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$34.95

Value

$25.77

PnL

-$9.18

Record

55%

23956-19344 (43300)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$42.06

Value

$45.57

PnL

+$3.51

Record

66%

126030-64913 (190943)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$22.17

Value

—

PnL

-$22.17

Record

48%

23338-25669 (49007)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$13.25

Value

$25

PnL

+$11.75

Record

58%

51036-37181 (88217)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

—

PnL

-$3.12

Record

63%

52043-30715 (82758)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 27 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9df41250...b5e7de

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793401800

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$15.31

Telawin

Down — $1.0K

+$538.2

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $388.22

+$46.8

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $376.98

+$14.28

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $256.6

+$46.12

Bonereaper

Down — $236.48

+$30.29

ply-pm0

Down — $212.02

-$1.43

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8.9

machinelearned

Down — $200

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded