Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 27 top traders (56%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,331

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Down15 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,025

Combined PnL+$599.87

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR	Upavg 16.4¢	$820.96	—	-$820.96	51% 876-850 (1726)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 71.7¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$29.66	66% 99251-51446 (150697)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 70.7¢	$871.6	$997.24	+$125.65	60% 12308-8144 (20452)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$787.88	$898.94	+$111.06	50% 5330-5421 (10751)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$348.66	—	-$348.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$439.23	$898.94	+$459.71
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 47.4¢	$565.98	$640.72	+$74.74	55% 15568-12982 (28550)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 45.9¢	$590.31	$415.4	-$174.91	56% 13825-10973 (24798)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.9¢	$364.46	—	-$364.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.4¢	$225.85	$415.4	+$189.55
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$371.03	$318.09	-$52.94	55% 8705-7167 (15872)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$234.59	—	-$234.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$136.44	$318.09	+$181.65
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$524.99	$717.63	+$192.64	57% 12538-9643 (22181)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$432.89	$717.63	+$284.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.3¢	$92.09	—	-$92.09
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 64.4¢	$227.62	$347.2	+$119.58	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$340.56	$344	+$3.44	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 56.2¢	$537.94	—	-$537.94	55% 7508-6166 (13674)
NIULAI4	Downavg 87.4¢	$398.22	$296.11	-$102.11	77% 9464-2855 (12319)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 87.7¢	$329.05	$283.85	-$45.2	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.7¢	$248.85	$283.85	+$34.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.2¢	$80.2	—	-$80.2
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Downavg 65.9¢	$325.2	$480.21	+$165.41	63% 1764-1028 (2792)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$172.4	$180.35	+$7.95	66% 126030-64913 (190943)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$112.36	—	-$112.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$60.04	$180.35	+$120.31
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$355.13	$299.31	-$55.82	46% 38184-45085 (83269)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.7¢	$259.44	$299.31	+$39.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 91.7¢	$95.69	—	-$95.69
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 80¢	$251.85	$179.6	-$72.25	57% 12094-9077 (21171)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 13.1¢	$45.3	$346.05	+$300.75	66% 112280-58767 (171047)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 82.3¢	$193.95	$180.93	-$13.02	54% 8100-6790 (14890)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.3¢	$148.93	$180.93	+$32
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$45.02	—	-$45.02
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 85.1¢	$187.58	$175.61	-$11.97	59% 23251-16346 (39597)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.1¢	$149.41	$175.61	+$26.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$38.17	—	-$38.17
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 92.5¢	$129.87	$122.82	-$7.05	52% 90518-85062 (175580)
UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100	Upavg 26.5¢	$36.58	$94.47	+$57.89	63% 52043-30715 (82758)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.5¢	$31.34	—	-$31.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 5.5¢	$5.24	$94.47	+$89.23
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 85.9¢	$149.37	$173.87	+$24.5	49% 78059-81564 (159623)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 22.7¢	$53.76	—	-$53.76	55% 23956-19344 (43300)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$48	—	-$48	34% 18858-35853 (54711)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR

Invested

$820.96

Value

—

PnL

-$820.96

Record

51%

876-850 (1726)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,058.97

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$29.66

Record

66%

99251-51446 (150697)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$871.6

Value

$997.24

PnL

+$125.65

Record

60%

12308-8144 (20452)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$787.88

Value

$898.94

PnL

+$111.06

Record

50%

5330-5421 (10751)

Both legs:

Up$348.6633.1¢-$348.66

Down$439.2348.9¢+$459.71

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$565.98

Value

$640.72

PnL

+$74.74

Record

55%

15568-12982 (28550)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$590.31

Value

$415.4

PnL

-$174.91

Record

56%

13825-10973 (24798)

Both legs:

Up$364.4645.9¢-$364.46

Down$225.8554.4¢+$189.55

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$371.03

Value

$318.09

PnL

-$52.94

Record

55%

8705-7167 (15872)

Both legs:

Up$234.5936.7¢-$234.59

Down$136.4442.9¢+$181.65

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$524.99

Value

$717.63

PnL

+$192.64

Record

57%

12538-9643 (22181)

Both legs:

Down$432.8960.3¢+$284.74

Up$92.0944.3¢-$92.09

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$227.62

Value

$347.2

PnL

+$119.58

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$340.56

Value

$344

PnL

+$3.44

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$537.94

Value

—

PnL

-$537.94

Record

55%

7508-6166 (13674)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$398.22

Value

$296.11

PnL

-$102.11

Record

77%

9464-2855 (12319)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$329.05

Value

$283.85

PnL

-$45.2

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

Both legs:

Down$248.8587.7¢+$34.99

Up$80.236.2¢-$80.2

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Down

Invested

$325.2

Value

$480.21

PnL

+$165.41

Record

63%

1764-1028 (2792)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$172.4

Value

$180.35

PnL

+$7.95

Record

66%

126030-64913 (190943)

Both legs:

Up$112.3650.3¢-$112.36

Down$60.0433.3¢+$120.31

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$355.13

Value

$299.31

PnL

-$55.82

Record

46%

38184-45085 (83269)

Both legs:

Down$259.4486.7¢+$39.87

Up$95.6991.7¢-$95.69

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$251.85

Value

$179.6

PnL

-$72.25

Record

57%

12094-9077 (21171)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$45.3

Value

$346.05

PnL

+$300.75

Record

66%

112280-58767 (171047)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$193.95

Value

$180.93

PnL

-$13.02

Record

54%

8100-6790 (14890)

Both legs:

Down$148.9382.3¢+$32

Up$45.0232.4¢-$45.02

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$187.58

Value

$175.61

PnL

-$11.97

Record

59%

23251-16346 (39597)

Both legs:

Down$149.4185.1¢+$26.2

Up$38.1730¢-$38.17

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$129.87

Value

$122.82

PnL

-$7.05

Record

52%

90518-85062 (175580)

UpandDownSyndromeARB<$100

Invested

$36.58

Value

$94.47

PnL

+$57.89

Record

63%

52043-30715 (82758)

Both legs:

Invested

$149.37

Value

$173.87

PnL

+$24.5

Record

49%

78059-81564 (159623)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$53.76

Value

—

PnL

-$53.76

Record

55%

23956-19344 (43300)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$48

Value

—

PnL

-$48

Record

34%

18858-35853 (54711)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 27 top traders (56%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xeeea9ce0...8a93f4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793400900

Traders in this Market

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

CTR

Up — $0

-$820.96

Bonereaper

Down — $1.0K

-$29.66

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $997.24

+$125.65

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$111.06

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $640.72

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $347.2

+$119.58

hoodquant

Down — $344

+$3.44

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