Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$224.55

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares5,956

Combined PnL+$270.9

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares231

Combined PnL-$46.35

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$31.44	59% 62320-43496 (105816)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$15.59	93% 23670-1781 (25451)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$360.51	$369.25	+$8.74	55% 15558-12981 (28539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$272.72	$369.25	+$96.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.2¢	$87.8	—	-$87.8
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 80.1¢	$308.44	$316.27	+$7.83	50% 5323-5411 (10734)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 88¢	$259.08	$264.03	+$4.96	54% 8088-6779 (14867)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 80.3¢	$211.53	$250.79	+$39.27	55% 7496-6159 (13655)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$141.69	$121.28	-$20.41	55% 8696-7157 (15853)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.3¢	$102.19	$121.28	+$19.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.5¢	$39.5	—	-$39.5
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$166.37	$156.5	-$9.87	56% 13818-10969 (24787)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.8¢	$126.48	$156.5	+$30.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.6¢	$39.9	—	-$39.9
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 89.1¢	$128.58	$117.18	-$11.4	60% 12299-8135 (20434)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.1¢	$104.46	$117.18	+$12.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.8¢	$24.12	—	-$24.12
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$95.89	$76.2	-$19.69	66% 99231-51435 (150666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.8¢	$41.88	—	-$41.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.9¢	$54.01	$76.2	+$22.19
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 68¢	$107.43	$157.99	+$50.56	58% 37968-27204 (65172)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 56.7¢	$85.36	$143	+$57.64	57% 7965-6118 (14083)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$68.14	$84.33	+$16.2	59% 23240-16339 (39579)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 83.5¢	$80.56	$67	-$13.56	57% 12528-9642 (22170)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.5¢	$55.96	$67	+$11.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.3¢	$24.6	—	-$24.6
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$83.73	$89.99	+$17.5	64% 23481-12947 (36428)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 75.3¢	$65.53	$80	+$14.47	57% 12084-9068 (21152)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$54.32	$69.92	+$15.6	59% 6836-4788 (11624)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 83.4¢	$33.51	$40.18	+$6.67	66% 126008-64883 (190891)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$30.3	—	-$30.3	58% 51029-37178 (88207)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 10.2¢	$9.01	—	-$9.01	46% 38165-45073 (83238)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 83.6¢	$23.15	$15.06	-$8.09	55% 17960-14547 (32507)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 96¢	$20.87	$17.2	-$3.67	77% 9459-2852 (12311)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 9¢	$3.3	—	-$3.3	49% 78046-81554 (159600)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$2.55	—	-$2.55	63% 52032-30695 (82727)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 69¢	$4.12	$5.97	+$1.85	55% 23945-19338 (43283)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,112.11

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.44

Record

59%

62320-43496 (105816)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,262.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$15.59

Record

93%

23670-1781 (25451)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$360.51

Value

$369.25

PnL

+$8.74

Record

55%

15558-12981 (28539)

Both legs:

Up$272.7273.9¢+$96.54

Down$87.826.2¢-$87.8

ply-pm0

Invested

$308.44

Value

$316.27

PnL

+$7.83

Record

50%

5323-5411 (10734)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$259.08

Value

$264.03

PnL

+$4.96

Record

54%

8088-6779 (14867)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$211.53

Value

$250.79

PnL

+$39.27

Record

55%

7496-6159 (13655)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$141.69

Value

$121.28

PnL

-$20.41

Record

55%

8696-7157 (15853)

Both legs:

Up$102.1984.3¢+$19.09

Down$39.514.5¢-$39.5

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$166.37

Value

$156.5

PnL

-$9.87

Record

56%

13818-10969 (24787)

Both legs:

Up$126.4880.8¢+$30.03

Down$39.926.6¢-$39.9

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$128.58

Value

$117.18

PnL

-$11.4

Record

60%

12299-8135 (20434)

Both legs:

Up$104.4689.1¢+$12.72

Down$24.1212.8¢-$24.12

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$95.89

Value

$76.2

PnL

-$19.69

Record

66%

99231-51435 (150666)

Both legs:

Down$41.8813.8¢-$41.88

Up$54.0170.9¢+$22.19

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$107.43

Value

$157.99

PnL

+$50.56

Record

58%

37968-27204 (65172)

wzbbb

Invested

$85.36

Value

$143

PnL

+$57.64

Record

57%

7965-6118 (14083)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$68.14

Value

$84.33

PnL

+$16.2

Record

59%

23240-16339 (39579)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$80.56

Value

$67

PnL

-$13.56

Record

57%

12528-9642 (22170)

Both legs:

Up$55.9683.5¢+$11.04

Down$24.627.3¢-$24.6

aaa221<$100

Invested

$83.73

Value

$89.99

PnL

+$17.5

Record

64%

23481-12947 (36428)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$65.53

Value

$80

PnL

+$14.47

Record

57%

12084-9068 (21152)

13897651<$100

Invested

$54.32

Value

$69.92

PnL

+$15.6

Record

59%

6836-4788 (11624)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$33.51

Value

$40.18

PnL

+$6.67

Record

66%

126008-64883 (190891)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.3

Value

—

PnL

-$30.3

Record

58%

51029-37178 (88207)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.01

Value

—

PnL

-$9.01

Record

46%

38165-45073 (83238)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$23.15

Value

$15.06

PnL

-$8.09

Record

55%

17960-14547 (32507)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$20.87

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$3.67

Record

77%

9459-2852 (12311)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.3

Value

—

PnL

-$3.3

Record

49%

78046-81554 (159600)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.55

Value

—

PnL

-$2.55

Record

63%

52032-30695 (82727)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$4.12

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$1.85

Record

55%

23945-19338 (43283)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x71d4e248...b513d7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793400600

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $3.1K

+$31.44

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

+$15.59

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.74

ply-pm0

Up — $316.27

+$7.83

sfkjbsr457

Up — $264.03

+$4.96

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $250.79

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded