Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$25.21

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 27 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,066

Combined PnL+$365.08

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,183

Combined PnL-$339.86

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 80.1¢	$287.72	$297.72	+$10	50% 5323-5411 (10734)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 38.1¢	$200	—	-$200	38% 184-298 (482)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 87.1¢	$207.38	$205.4	-$1.99	54% 8088-6779 (14867)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 69.5¢	$155.04	$182.99	+$27.95	55% 15558-12981 (28539)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74¢	$129.38	$168.56	+$39.18	60% 12299-8135 (20434)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 59.2¢	$151.16	$255.21	+$104.05	58% 37968-27204 (65172)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 69.7¢	$111.16	$154.63	+$43.47	56% 13818-10969 (24787)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 77.9¢	$125.76	$140.26	+$14.5	66% 99231-51435 (150666)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 16¢	$187.25	$100	-$87.25	55% 8696-7157 (15853)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.3¢	$67.25	$100	+$32.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 16¢	$120	—	-$120
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 86.9¢	$92.49	$99.99	+$7.5	57% 12084-9068 (21152)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$98.81	$97	-$1.81	52% 90492-85022 (175514)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 71.3¢	$85.59	$119.99	+$34.4	59% 23240-16339 (39579)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 47.1¢	$57.95	$123	+$65.05	57% 7965-6118 (14083)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 82.4¢	$51.84	$49	-$2.84	55% 7496-6159 (13655)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 92.1¢	$53.1	$52.79	+$1.21	61% 95091-59995 (155086)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$44.08	—	-$44.08	59% 6836-4788 (11624)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$38.57	—	-$38.57	34% 18852-35845 (54697)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$34.87	$48.38	+$13.51	66% 126008-64883 (190891)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 91¢	$39.74	$23.66	+$3.72	64% 23481-12947 (36428)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 13.9¢	$18.9	—	-$18.9	51% 20126-19292 (39418)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 8.7¢	$24.02	—	-$24.02	46% 38165-45073 (83238)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 80¢	$24	$30	+$6	57% 12528-9642 (22170)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 93.9¢	$15.02	$16	+$0.98	93% 23670-1781 (25451)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 7.9¢	$7.52	—	-$7.52	49% 78046-81554 (159600)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$2.05	—	-$2.05	55% 17960-14547 (32507)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$287.72

Value

$297.72

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

5323-5411 (10734)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$200

Value

—

PnL

-$200

Record

38%

184-298 (482)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$207.38

Value

$205.4

PnL

-$1.99

Record

54%

8088-6779 (14867)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$155.04

Value

$182.99

PnL

+$27.95

Record

55%

15558-12981 (28539)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$129.38

Value

$168.56

PnL

+$39.18

Record

60%

12299-8135 (20434)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$151.16

Value

$255.21

PnL

+$104.05

Record

58%

37968-27204 (65172)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$111.16

Value

$154.63

PnL

+$43.47

Record

56%

13818-10969 (24787)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$125.76

Value

$140.26

PnL

+$14.5

Record

66%

99231-51435 (150666)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$187.25

Value

$100

PnL

-$87.25

Record

55%

8696-7157 (15853)

Both legs:

Down$67.2567.3¢+$32.75

Up$12016¢-$120

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$92.49

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$7.5

Record

57%

12084-9068 (21152)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$98.81

Value

$97

PnL

-$1.81

Record

52%

90492-85022 (175514)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$85.59

Value

$119.99

PnL

+$34.4

Record

59%

23240-16339 (39579)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$57.95

Value

$123

PnL

+$65.05

Record

57%

7965-6118 (14083)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$51.84

Value

$49

PnL

-$2.84

Record

55%

7496-6159 (13655)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$53.1

Value

$52.79

PnL

+$1.21

Record

61%

95091-59995 (155086)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$44.08

Value

—

PnL

-$44.08

Record

59%

6836-4788 (11624)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$38.57

Value

—

PnL

-$38.57

Record

34%

18852-35845 (54697)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$34.87

Value

$48.38

PnL

+$13.51

Record

66%

126008-64883 (190891)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$39.74

Value

$23.66

PnL

+$3.72

Record

64%

23481-12947 (36428)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$18.9

Value

—

PnL

-$18.9

Record

51%

20126-19292 (39418)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$24.02

Value

—

PnL

-$24.02

Record

46%

38165-45073 (83238)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$24

Value

$30

PnL

+$6

Record

57%

12528-9642 (22170)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$15.02

Value

$16

PnL

+$0.98

Record

93%

23670-1781 (25451)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$7.52

Value

—

PnL

-$7.52

Record

49%

78046-81554 (159600)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

—

PnL

-$2.05

Record

55%

17960-14547 (32507)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 27 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb0cf23cf...85abec

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793400300

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Down — $297.72

+$10

Imgonnadoit

CTR

Up — $0

-$200

sfkjbsr457

Down — $205.4

-$1.99

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $182.99

+$27.95

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $168.56

+$39.18

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $255.21

+$104.05

GoodFallen

Down — $154.63

+$43.47

Bonereaper

Down — $140.26

+$14.5

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$87.25

EZTRADENL2

Down — $99.99

+$7.5

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